《能源基金会&AIIB：2024中国农村户用光伏可持续发展报告（英文版）（114页）.pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《能源基金会&AIIB：2024中国农村户用光伏可持续发展报告（英文版）（114页）.pdf（114页珍藏版）》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。

1、Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic GoalsA Report on the Sustainable Development of Photovoltaics in Chinese Rural HouseholdsEmbarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Ru

2、ral Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic GoalsA Report on the Sustainable Development of Photovoltaics in Chinese Rural Households4Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic GoalsCopyright P

3、age for the Work 2024 Energy Foundation China and the Asian Infrastructure Investment BankSome rights reserved.This work is a co-publication of the Energy Foundation China and the Asian Infrastructure Investment BankThe Energy Foundation(referred herein as“Energy Foundation China”)55 Second Street,2

4、4th floor,San Francisco,California 94105 USA chinaefchina.orgAsian Infrastructure Investment BankAIIB Headquarters,Tower A,Asia Financial CenterNo.1 Tianchen East Road,Chaoyang District,Beijing 100101Tel:+86-10-8358-0000 DisclaimerEnergy Foundation China and AIIB use a Creative Commons Attribution-N

5、onCommercial 4.0 license for all intellectual property contained in this work except where specified otherwise.Copyright designations may or may not apply to third-party content found herein.Neither Energy Foundation China nor AIIB necessarily own each component of the content contained in or linked

6、 from this work and will not be held accountable for any such third-party content.Neither Energy Foundation China nor AIIB guarantee the accuracy of the data contained in or linked from this work and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of their use.The mention of companies or any trademar

7、ked entity or object in this work does not imply that they are being endorsed or recommended by Energy Foundation China or AIIB in preference to others that are not mentioned.The contents of this work do not necessarily represent the views or policies of Energy Foundation China or AIIB,its Board of

8、Directors or its members.Any designation of or reference to a specific territory,region or geographic area in this work shall not be construed as constituting an express or implied position,endorsement,or expression of opinion by Energy Foundation China or AIIB as to the legal or other status of any

9、 territory or area.5Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic GoalsRights and PermissionThis work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0(CC BY-NC 4.0),https:/creativecommons.or

10、g/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.Under the CC BY-NC 4.0 license,you are free to copy,distribute,transmit,and adapt this work for non-commercial purposes,under the following conditions.Attribution 2024 Energy Foundation China and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.This work is a co-publication of the Energy F

11、oundation China and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.Non Commercial You may not use this work for commercial purposes.Translations If you create a translation of this work,please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:“This translation was not created by Energy Foundation Ch

12、ina or AIIB and should not be considered an official Energy Foundation China or AIIB translation.Energy Foundation China and AIIB shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation”.Adaptations If you create an adaptation of this work,please add the following disclaimer along with the

13、attribution:“This is an adaptation of an original work by AIIB and Energy Foundation China.Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by Energy Foundation China and AIIB”.Third Party Content Energy Founda

14、tion China and AIIB do not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work and therefore do not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties.The risk of claims resulting

15、 from such infringement rests solely with you.If you wish to re-use a component of the work,it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner.Examples of components can include,but are not limited to,tables,figures,o

16、r images.All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to Energy Foundation China.6Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic GoalsAcknowledgmentsWe would like to express our sincere gratitude to the

17、 following colleagues for their contributions to this report:Energy Foundation ChinaJi Zou CEO and PresidentSha Fu Director,Strategy and PlanningZhigao Wang Senior Program Director,Low Carbon CitiesXuan Du Program Director Low Carbon Economic GrowthYanbing Zhao Senior Program Officer Low Carbon Citi

18、esLan Yu Program Officer Low Carbon Economic GrowthLingyan Chen Officer Strategy and PlanningYilun Yan Senior Program Associate Low Carbon Economic GrowthYichu Lu Senior Program Associate,Low Carbon Economic GrowthAsian Infrastructure Investment BankNajeeb Haider Director General,Project and Corpora

19、te Finance Clients Department,Global1Stefen Shin Manager,Project and Corporate Finance Clients Department,Global1Huaixue Fu Senior Investment Officer Project and Corporate Finance Clients Department,Global1Ruoyu Qian Investment Associate Project and Corporate Finance Clients Department,Global1Xiao W

20、ang Senior Partnership Officer Resource Mobilization Operational Partnership DepartmentRong Zhou Environment Specialist Private Sector Sustainability and Fiduciary Solutions Department2We thank our advisers,who challenged our thinking and provided valuable guidance.They are Kexi Pan(Centre for Energ

21、y Economics and Strategy Institute of Fudan University),Peng Peng(China New Energy Power Investment and Financing Alliance),Yang Li(China Gas Holdings Limited),Shixiang Gu(JinkoSolar Holding Co.),Limei Liu(Chongho Bridge Limited),Bibin Huang(State Grid Energy Research Institute),Pan Chu(PetroChina S

22、henzhen Renewables Research Institute Co.),and Zhifeng Xue(Energy Internet Research Institute).1 Previously known as Banking Department Region 2 2 Previously known as Operational Services Department7Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Ac

23、hieving the Dual Carbon Strategic GoalsPrefaceExecutive SummarySignificance,Positioning,and Prospects of Residential PV under the Dual Carbon GoalsCurrent Landscape,Prospects,and Challenges for the Development of Rural Residential PV in ChinaBusiness and Consumption Models for Rural Distributed PVTr

24、ends and Future Prospects in the Evolution of the New Rural PV Ecosystem in China:An Exploration of Business ModelsPEDF Technology:A Potential Solution for Building a New Power SystemRural Residential PV:Vision for the New Rural PV EcosystemConclusion:Walking Alongside the Sun,Driving Continuous Pro

25、gress in Rural Rooftop Solar PVNote81018 26 48 76 88 100 108 110456Contents1238Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic GoalsPrefaceIn September 2020,China officially announced its Dual Carbon goals at the

26、75th UN General Assembly(UNGA).These two goals call for China to achieve peak carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.These ambitious goals have accelerated the pace of the countrys energy transition,with the traditional fossil fuel-based energy system gradually being replaced by a gr

27、een and low-carbon system of renewable energy.The development and promotion of key renewable energy forms have become top priorities for the present and for the future energy transition.This involves both the exploration of critical technologies as well as a meticulous examination of efficient and s

28、ustainable business models and the roles of stakeholders in comprehensive solutions.Each part of this process has an undeniable impact on economic development and peoples lives.To achieve carbon neutrality by 2060,renewable energy must account for 80%of total electricity generation.Among renewal ene

29、rgy types,photovoltaic(PV)power has a crucial role to play in realizing the Dual Carbon goals by virtue of its low carbon footprint,ease of promotion,and economic stimulation effect.It is anticipated that the proportion of Chinas electricity generated by PV will gradually increase from 5%in 2022 to

30、45%in 2060.Distributed solar PV,characterized by its small scale and high construction flexibility,will become a vital engine for rural areas to achieve both decarbonization and income growth.In this context,we will closely examine the status quo of distributed PV in rural areas,the challenges it fa

31、ces,the design of business models and solutions,and typical pilot cases.We hope that this will offer a fresh perspective for the strategic design and widespread implementation of distributed PV in rural areas.We realize that despite the vast prospects for the development of distributed PV in rural a

32、reas,it currently faces significant challenges.These include the low levels of rural electricity consumption,the transition of residential PV to the subsidy-free era,challenges in implementing policies due to low willingness to participate on the part of various stakeholders,and the complex and dyna

33、mic rural market environment.Under the existing rooftop leasing and self-financing&self-ownership business models,stakeholders are actively innovating business models to encourage the development of rural distributed PV in a market-driven manner and help overcome the various bottlenecks the market f

34、aces.We propose that local governments,schools,local businesses,financial institutions,and other stakeholders should simultaneously enhance education on rural distributed PV and improve the assessment mechanism for guarantee providers to safeguard the interests of rural households,thereby encouragin

35、g the widespread adoption of PV.9Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic GoalsTo better assist policymakers and industry leaders,we try to identify the pillars supporting the long-term development of rural

36、 distributed PV systems.We believe the following six pillars are indispensable for the long-term development and innovation of rural distributed PV:reduced station establishment costs and increased willingness to invest;optimized station ownership models and power generation frameworks;increased rur

37、al power consumption capacity;balanced power supply and demand based on energy storage technologies;usage of grid regulatory and trading capabilities;and improved grid and supporting infrastructure.We are encouraged by the fact that,across the various development trends we observed in rural distribu

38、ted PV,these six pillars have entered different stages of practical implementation,and numerous promising attempts at relevant solutions have emerged around them.We conducted an in-depth analysis of the representative solution“PEDFPhotovoltaic-Energy Storage-Direct Current-Flexibility”(integrating s

39、olar PV,distributed energy storage,direct current distribution,and flexible power consumption).By analyzing its grid units and financial status,we aim to provide valuable insights that can be used to further refine industry solutions.Looking ahead,the new rural PV systems of the future,will not only

40、 meet the electricity needs of rural households but also have the ability to further support the power needs of surrounding industries,creating a new integrated energy landscape for rural PV.We expect to see a variety of business models for rural PV evolve in the future,offering significant potentia

41、l benefits for rural revitalization.However,such a societal transformation is a gradual process and cannot rely solely on the efforts of one party.We anticipate a more significant role for the government in this new power system by enabling the construction of distributed energy facilities and mobil

42、izing funds and resources.The delineation of powers and responsibilities among various stakeholders in the rural PV ecosystem also warrants further exploration in the future.Energy Foundation China is committed to promoting sustainable energy for the prosperity and climate security of China and the

43、world.It also looks forward to contributing valuable perspectives to the development of rural PV in China.We provide this report for the purpose of identifying opportunities and challenges in Chinas energy transition and engaging in a meaningful discussion on the widespread adoption of rural PV.Our

44、goal is to collectively explore a successful path for low-carbon development in China.Executive Summary10Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic GoalsGuided by“Dual Carbon”Goals,the Future is Full of Promi

45、seGuided by the Dual Carbon goals,Chinas power and energy structures are swiftly transitioning from a fossil fuel-dominated system to a new era of green,low-carbon,and renewable energy.In 2022,Chinas cumulative installed capacity for wind and solar power reached 760 million kW,with non-fossil energy

46、 accounting for 36.2%of the total power generation.This means that by 2030,before achieving carbon emissions peaking,Chinas wind and solar capacity will have to grow to at least twice its 2022 level.To realize carbon neutrality by 2060,renewable energy sources,primarily solar PV,wind,and hydropower,

47、must constitute 80%of total power generation.Among these energy sources,PV power stands out due to its low carbon footprint,ease of deployment,and economic stimulation effect.As the cost of electricity generation gradually decreases and efficiency continues to improve,it is projected that the share

48、of PV power in Chinas total power generation will increase from 5%in 2022 to 45%by 2060.PV power will become a crucial driver in achieving the Dual Carbon goals.In the field of PV power generation,residential PV systems feature small-scale capacity and high construction flexibility.The generated ele

49、ctricity can be directly used on-site,contributing to the transformation of energy consumers into producers,storers,and consumers all at once.As of 2022,newly installed residential PV capacity reached 28%of Chinas total PV capacity.With continuous improvements in supporting equipment such as energy

50、storage and electrification equipment,the energy utilization efficiency of residential PV will continue to rise.This will provide users with efficient and low-cost electricity while facilitating effective collaboration with the overall 11Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Dri

51、ving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic Goalspower grid system.Taking a micro perspective,if each rural household installs a PV system of more than 20 kW on their rooftop,it could theoretically meet all their electrical needs,including winter heating(for a 50-square-

52、meter main room)and cooking,as well as charging various types of vehicles.If residential PV is further combined with energy storage technology and other flexible resources to form a new power system,the use of coal for heating and cooking in rural households could be entirely replaced by solar energ

53、y,significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions from rural buildings.Taking a macro perspective,Chinas rural areas boast abundant roof resources,with increasingly clear property rights.The current rooftop area of rural buildings in China has reached a staggering 27.3 billion square meters.Using th

54、is as the basis for calculation,the potential installed capacity of residential PV is nearly 2 billion kW,with an annual electricity generation potential exceeding 2.5 trillion kWh.This amount represents nearly one-third of total national electricity consumption measured at over 8.6 trillion kWh in

55、2022.Currently,rural households consume approximately 350 billion kWh of electricity annually for daily life,and the agriculture,forestry,and animal husbandry sectors consume around 200 billion kWh for production.If a comprehensive electrification strategy is implemented,covering residential,product

56、ion,and transportation energy needs,rooftop PV alone could meet the demands of the rural population.Rural residential PV not only holds environmental value but also commercial and investment potential,serving as a crucial force in supporting Chinas rural revitalization strategy.In recent years,the r

57、ural residential PV sector has attracted investment from many types of institutions,including private equity firms,multilateral investment banks,large state-owned central energy enterprises,and foreign energy companies.Currently,the ROI for residential PV power generation remains stable at 8%to 10%,

58、offering a higher and more stable return compared to other financial products.The construction,installation,and ongoing maintenance of PV stations have also created employment opportunities in rural areas,ranging from basic installation,cleaning,and transport to specialized positions such as front-e

59、nd sales,construction,and regular maintenance.The decision to adopt the Dual Carbon strategy is a significant move by China,showing its proactive stance in taking on global responsibilities and striving to build a community with a shared future for humanity.Utilizing new energy resources not only in

60、volves technological and economic development but is also intricately linked with the well-being of the nation and its people.In this process,residential PV is set to become a key driver for rural areas to achieve both decarbonization and increased income.Its development is a significant manifestati

61、on of the successful implementation of the Dual Carbon strategy,and it holds the promise of vast future prospects.Amidst Challenges,Opportunities AboundThe widespread adoption of rural residential PV faces its share of challenges.First,rural regions exhibit low power consumption levels,yet they boas

62、t considerable grid-integrated power generation capabilities.However,the limited distribution network capacity necessitates significant financial backing for further system renovation,highlighting the importance of local consumption,adaptive regulation,and energy storage solutions.Second,with the en

63、ding of subsidies,residential PV entered the subsidy-free era as of 2022.This shift 12Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic Goalsdemands that stakeholders along the value chain explore innovative avenues

64、 for profit generation and also poses the pressing need to accelerate the development of carbon trading markets.Third,the implementation of policies such as“county-wide advancement”and incremental distribution networks has encountered hurdles,which may impact the effectiveness of these policies and

65、engagement among stakeholders.Fourth,the rural market presents a dynamic and intricate landscape characterized by distinct regional variations,challenges in customer acquisition,dispersed business operations,and low levels of sustained interest among rural households.Chinas business models for resid

66、ential PV are rooted in property ownership and profit distribution strategies.They can be divided into two main types:self-financing&self-ownership and rooftop leasing.These models can be further categorized based on consumption patterns into“full grid feeding”and“self-generation and self-consumptio

67、n with surplus grid feeding”.Power station investors and end-users typically determine property rights and consumption models based on factors such as their own electricity consumption patterns and local electricity rates and pair them with various metering and settlement methods.Given the current l

68、andscape of these two primary business models and the electricity system structure,stakeholders can explore short-term solutions to address the challenges faced by rooftop PV in rural China.These solutions include innovative grid integration models,the exploration of green credit mechanisms,and the

69、development of PV insurance products.The rooftop leasing model has been widely adopted in the rural residential PV market in China and features unique Chinese characteristics.Against the backdrop of“county-wide advancement”of PV,rooftop leasing accounts for over 80%of the entire residential PV marke

70、t.Such a remarkable market share presents development opportunities for stakeholders along the value chain.For power station developers,securing rural customer base is pivotal.Investors or developers with local customer acquisition channels and market familiarity gain a substantial advantage in the

71、highly homogenous competition within the rural residential PV market.First,these developers can broaden their avenues of customer acquisition by combining user segmentation and sales channels.Second,they can utilize innovative rural residential PV grid integration models(e.g.,the new“village-level a

72、ggregation”grid integration solution)to alleviate grid integration pressures.Third,they can actively explore green credit models,leveraging national incentives for green finance to create innovative financing models and address the financing challenges faced by rural residential PV projects.Local or

73、ganizations such as local governments,schools,and regional enterprises can contribute to achieving energy efficiency,reducing carbon emissions,and enhancing rural household well-being.In the short term,they can conduct PV knowledge education initiatives for rural households,increasing their understa

74、nding of benefits and responsibilities.This will help lower households risk of legal disputes and encourage long-term self-ownership.In the self-financing&self-ownership model,the rooftop owner bears the construction cost of the power station,collects the income generated,and retains ownership of th

75、e station.This model is prevalent in areas not covered by“county-wide advancement”initiatives or among rural households with a certain understanding of PV benefits 13Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic

76、 Goalsand higher expectation for revenue.Rural households,either through full payment or financing tools(such as loans),purchase or lease PV system equipment and handle the installation.The self-financing&self-ownership model yields a higher internal ROI(13%to 15%).Therefore,as peoples awareness of

77、PV power stations and disposable income increase,the household market is likely to shift from an investment-oriented to a consumer-oriented focus in the long run,driving growth in demand.However,under this model,rural households are susceptible to natural disasters and other force majeure factors th

78、at can cause loss of power station assets,and may also face reduced electricity revenue and increased station wear and tear due to poor operation and maintenance.Moreover,most rural households currently lack awareness of insurance products,with only 36%of power stations having commercial insurance.I

79、nsurance companies can create innovative insurance products tailored specifically for rural households who own distributed PV stations,including property insurance,third-party liability insurance,and quality assurance insurance.Raising rural households awareness as regards insurance through educatio

80、nal campaigns will strengthen their risk management capabilities.Financial institutions can establish a sound guarantee assessment mechanism,focusing on the qualifications,historical operational performance,insurance coverage,and product quality control of power station developers.This optimization

81、of the market environment will safeguard rural household interests and prevent disorderly practices in the PV loan market from disrupting the financial market order in the PV industry.Six Pillars for Accelerated ProgressIn the long run,in order to align with our countrys medium-and long-term Dual Ca

82、rbon goals and to establish a pioneering power system grounded in clean energy,the continued expansion and innovation of Chinas rural residential PV sector urgently require support from the following six key pillars:Pillar 1:Reduced station establishment costs and increased willingness to invest.The

83、 relentless progress in PV cell manufacturing technologies is set to drive steady enhancements in power generation efficiency.According to industry experts,by 2035,the cost per kilowatt-hour of PV power could potentially decline by 35%to 40%.Moreover,continued strides in manufacturing processes will

84、 further cut down installation and operational expenses,and inventive business models also have the potential to reduce customer acquisition costs for distributed PV power stations.Furthermore,groundbreaking one-stop Internet platform models like those found overseas will reduce customer acquisition

85、 costs by 20%to 30%,building on the foundation of the conventional ground promotion model.Leveraging Chinas well-established Internet business ecosystem,the rural rooftop PV sector stands ready for sustained innovation in customer outreach strategies.Pillar 2:Optimized station ownership models and p

86、ower generation frameworks.At present,the promotion of rural residential PV predominantly leans on the rooftop leasing and full grid feeding model,known for its manageable risk profile and comparatively straightforward profit predictions.However,with rural users increased awareness of PV power stati

87、ons,more individuals are anticipated to participate in the self-financing&self-ownership with self-generation 14Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic Goalsand self-consumption model of station constructi

88、on.On the one hand,this model offers increased flexibility.Households seeking higher returns on investment and with the capability to shoulder construction expenses stand to see greater economic gains.Evaluations indicate that,assuming full grid feeding for a 10-kW residential PV system,the income f

89、or the self-financing&self-ownership model will be three times that of the rooftop leasing model.On the other hand,with increased tangible benefit for rural users,the widespread adoption of PV power stations will gather momentum.This ripple effect will foster diversified involvement in rural residen

90、tial PV,while concurrently curbing the risk of asset concentration in the hands of state-owned investment enterprises and other major players.Pillar 3:Increased rural power consumption capacity.In rural China,electricity consumption is relatively low,and the level of electrification is not particula

91、rly high.Local energy consumption only accounts for approximately 10%of the theoretical PV generation potential of rural households.As distributed PV becomes more deeply integrated into the grid,rural distribution systems will face growing pressure for power consumption.Addressing this challenge ent

92、ails enhancing local and nearby consumption capabilities.This strategy not only alleviates the strain on rural grids,but also improves rural quality of life in practical ways.On one hand,by continuously improving rural electrification levels,it fosters and expands the market for residential power us

93、e in rural areas,thus enhancing local consumption.From 1992 to 2020,the electrification of cooking activities(by average time proportion)gradually increased from below 10%to nearly 80%.In parallel,the electrification ratio for heating activities rose from below 5%to nearly 70%,with six provinces exc

94、eeding 80%.On the other hand,integrating local energy layouts with regional industrial and economic growth and making the most of local resource potential can boost the development of energy-consuming industries in villages and towns,thereby bolstering nearby consumption capabilities.Pillar 4:Balanc

95、ed power supply and demand based on energy storage technologies.Household energy storage is a versatile tool for regulating power,yet its cost-effectiveness remains an obstacle to broader adoption.Given the relatively modest residential power prices in China,incorporating energy storage could potent

96、ially prolong the investment payback period for residential PV by approximately six years.Consequently,energy storage might find more relevance in the commercial and industrial PV sector,which are characterized by higher power prices,notable peak-to-off-peak price differentials,and substantial self-

97、consumption rates.Nevertheless,the past decade has seen a steady decline in energy storage costs in the Chinese market.By 2025,prices might experience another 50%reduction compared to 2020 figures.With residential tiered pricing and peak-to-off-peak price differentials potentially offsetting the per

98、-kWh cost of a single battery charge and discharge cycle,residents are likely to show greater interest in investing in energy storage devices.Additionally,a variety of innovative and cost-competitive energy storage solutions continue to emerge,including bidirectional electric farming equipment capab

99、le of charging and discharging,and energy storage-equipped electric vehicle charging stations.Pillar 5:Usage of grid regulatory and trading capabilities.In order to navigate the many types of distributed generation assets,the grid needs to fine-tune its coordination abilities while bolstering its re

100、gulatory functions.In certain regions,15Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic Goalslocal grids are harnessing virtual power plant technology to streamline power distribution in a cohesive manner.On the c

101、onsumption end,this approach allows for participation in real-time power trading,offers supplementary services,and improves bilateral transactions for revenue sharing.This strong foundation of grid regulation is laying the groundwork for power trading to become an emerging focus.Market-driven point-

102、to-point trading will facilitate localized power circulation,empowering users to directly conduct power transactions.This pricing model strikes a balance between grid power rates and residential rates,benefiting both stakeholders.Pillar 6:Improved grid and supporting infrastructure.Chinas Central Do

103、cument No.1 proposed the intensification of rural grid construction,with the National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC)establishing“two priorities”for rural PV development.These prioritize support for rooftop distributed PV power generation with the generated power supplied to grids,and grid c

104、ompanies should prioritize acquiring this generated power,paving the way for the upgrade and renovation of rural grids.Concurrently,local governments are progressively introducing incentives for PV energy storage,thereby working to bring down the cost of energy storage technology.A wide range of sta

105、keholders,including PV companies and local banks,are engaging in green and low-carbon financial products.Notably,PV loan products have set a benchmark for the market.As the national-level power trading market gradually takes form,the curtain is rising on power market reforms.From central guidelines

106、to local policies,from financial products to the establishment of public trading platforms,a policy framework and market mechanisms tailored to distributed PV are gradually taking shape.At present,the six pillars above have entered the stage of practical implementation,with various regions embarking

107、 on valuable explorations involving comprehensive solutions.Among them,PEDF technology,as a new zero-carbon electricity solution,facilitates the exploration of the“self-owned power station+electrification consumption+energy storage+flexibility control”model and can effectively promote the integratio

108、n of“production,consumption,storage,and interaction”.PEDF Model InnovationPEDF is a novel model built on four key technologies:Photovoltaic(PV),Energy storage,Direct current distribution,and Flexibility in power usage.Through the overlapping and integrated use of multiple technologies,the traditiona

109、l“source following the load”model that requires a high degree of coordination on the part of the grid is transforming into a grid-friendly“load following the source”approach.This change effectively consumes PV energy,achieving energy-efficient and low-carbon power system operations.Currently,PEDF te

110、chnology is primarily applied in building scenarios,with initial estimates indicating a potential carbon reduction of approximately 25%in building operations.In the context of PEDF,new direct current grids will consist of two types of units:First,there are household units.Due to increasing electrifi

111、cation levels and the promotion of direct current appliances,the electricity generated by residential PV can fully cover domestic electricity needs.Additionally,the bi-directional charging and discharging functionality of electric farm machinery allows it to serve as cost-effective energy storage de

112、vices.For example,during the day,the PV charging system charges agricultural equipment,and the surplus electricity 16Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic Goalscan power the household during the night or

113、 on cloudy days.Excess power is sent to the microgrid for trading,generating income from electricity sales.In this scenario,due to the considerable profits brought by the self-financing&self-ownership plus self-generation and self-consumption model,and with household electricity needs increasing wit

114、h electrification,rural households that have/can borrow the necessary funds and are willing to assume certain investment risks can actively participate in the construction of power stations and microgrids.Second,there are village-level public units.These units are constructed on public buildings suc

115、h as village government offices or village-operated schools,or they can be distributed PV stations scattered across open spaces.These public units not only support the electricity needs of the buildings themselves but also facilitate public area lighting and solar power storage and charging stations

116、.Such units provide a green energy supply at the village level.Within the same direct current microgrid,users can freely trade electricity.If the village has poultry farms,agricultural processing plants,or other community-run industries with significant daily electricity demands,the industry owners

117、can enter power purchase agreements with local PV-generating rural households within the microgrid to compensate for any electricity shortfalls.They pay a grid integration fee to the grid and conduct electricity transactions at intermediary prices,increasing the proportion of locally consumed electr

118、icity.Furthermore,by utilizing energy storage facilities,a continuous power supply can be ensured day and night for village-run industries.Due to the initial investments in hardware facilities and renovations for the PEDF project,including energy storage,direct current microgrids,direct current hous

119、ehold appliances,and other investments,the construction cost per watt was RMB 4.6,approximately 30%higher than typical residential PV station construction costs of about RMB 3.2 per watt.Consequently,the overall project payback period is longer,currently nearing 15 years,twice as long as regular pro

120、jects.However,rural PEDF systems can help reduce the investment required for upgrading rural power grids and projects such as coal-to-electricity and coal-to-gas heating.If a new type of direct current microgrid PV system is established with well-designed energy storage systems and government financ

121、ial support,households will have the opportunity to trade electricity.They will be able to actively participate in peak shaving support markets and carbon trading to directly earn income.According to calculations,in this new system,the returns for households investing in PV systems would be 1.5 time

122、s higher compared to the self-financing and self-ownership model.A New System to Power the Voyage AheadIn the near future,the new rural PV systemwith its holistic ecosystem encompassing station construction,power generation,consumption,energy storage,and tradingwill not only fulfill the power demand

123、s of rural households but also underpin the industrial power supply in surrounding regions.While upholding the principle of household power autonomy,this new system constructs an integrated energy landscape for rural residential PV.It not only tangibly enhances the power infrastructure and fosters a

124、 fair distribution of benefits,but also effectively improves power utilization.As a multitude of new PV systems take root across rural China,a network is gradually emerging,connecting isolated points to form interconnected nodes and then 17Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are D

125、riving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic Goalsevolving into a comprehensive framework of distributed energy.This network will improve the quality of life of rural residents and contribute to achieving the Dual Carbon goals.Looking ahead to the next 10 to 30 years,we

126、 anticipate that these new rural PV systems will mature.The economic viability of residential PV stations will continue to improve,and the ownership models will become more diverse.Households will be able to opt for self-owned stations or generate power sales revenue through participation in collect

127、ive rural projects,each with its distinct sales model.Reliable and cost-effective power will allay concerns about power consumption,thereby augmenting power utilization efficiency.Even in remote areas,villages can attain energy self-sufficiency through residential PV installations without relying on

128、 grid integration.Excess power that large generators cannot immediately consume can be efficiently stored in centralized or distributed energy storage devices and coordinated through local scheduling for nearby consumption.This could include supplying neighboring rural households or catering to the

129、industrial and commercial power needs within the village,supplying power for nighttime domestic use,or feeding into the broader grid.Such measures would not only support surrounding industries but also propel rural revitalization forward.The government assumes a pivotal role in this emerging power l

130、andscape.At the rural and township levels,local governments can serve as coordinators,facilitating collective village involvement in distributed energy projects,as well as mobilizing funds and resources.They can also function as asset management entities,effectively consolidating dispersed generatio

131、n assets within villages to boost the income of local residents.The responsibilities of county-level governments include efficient service delivery,increasing participation of local governments and residents,facilitating administrative procedures,and helping establish microgrid systems.Empowered by

132、robust policies aimed at revitalizing rural economies and combined with market-driven strategies,villagers,as asset owners,can proactively engage in the new rural power system.As we look ahead,a deeper exploration of participation strategies and a clear definition of roles and responsibilities among

133、 stakeholders will become crucial.Governments can provide subsidies,or invest and participate in the operation of local control and coordination centers,thereby fully utilizing the local distributed power system.Alternatively,they can establish policies to manage and regulate the transmission capaci

134、ty of village-level networks connected to the broader grid.As things stand at present,stakeholders involved in or observing the distributed PV sector must thoughtfully consider entry points and commercial strategies within the residential PV value chain based on strategic positioning,business layout

135、,and industry resources.Casting our gaze into the future,we foresee the establishment of a rural PV power system that substantially refines the power infrastructure,balances the distribution of benefits,and optimizes power consumption.Through the collective endeavor of society as a whole,the unlimit

136、ed sunlight we enjoy will generate increasing value for rural China,propelling rural revitalization forward.At the same time,drawing inspiration from Chinas experience,emerging economies and developing nations can harness their own resources and capabilities to cultivate an operational environment t

137、o enable residential PV by leveraging policies,technologies,industrial configurations,and financial support.They can select new business models and foster innovation to achieve the transition towards low-carbon development.18Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas R

138、ural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic GoalsSignificance,Positioning,and Prospects of Residential PV under the Dual Carbon Goals1.1 Distributed PV:A key catalyst for carbon reduction in the power systemOn September 22,2020,President Xi Jinping expressed Chinas Dual Carbon goals

139、during the General Debate of the 75th Session of the United Nations General Assembly,saying“We aim to have carbon emissions peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060”.Currently,nearly 90%of Chinas 1 International Energy Agency(2021),An Energy Sector Roadmap to Carbon Neutrality in C

140、hina,https:/www.iea.org/reports/an-energy-sector-roadmap-to-carbon-neutrality-in-china/executive-summary?language=zh2 International Energy Agency(2021),Enhancing Chinas ETS for Carbon Neutrality:Focus on Power Sector,https:/www.iea.org/reports/enhancing-chinas-ets-for-carbon-neutrality-focus-on-powe

141、r-sector/executive-summary?language=zhgreenhouse gas emissions originate from the energy sector1,with the power industry accounting for nearly half of the carbon dioxide emissions of the energy system2.To realize the Dual Carbon goals,China must undertake substantial adjustments to its current elect

142、ricity generation framework.This necessitates a shift from centralized,planned,and fossil fuel-centric energy systems towards distributed,market-driven,efficient,and environmentally sustainable alternatives.0119Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitaliz

143、ation and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic GoalsThe expansion of electricity generated by renewable energy holds the potential to drastically curtail Chinas carbon emissions and bring about Chinas carbon emissions peak before 2030.Moreover,the zero emissions of renewable energy electricity positi

144、ons it as an alternative to various existing demand-side energy sources,making it a primary tool for achieving carbon neutrality.In December 2020,China established a target to install over 1.2 billion kW of solar and wind power capacity by 2030.In 2021,the State Council released the Guidelines on Im

145、plementing the New Development Concept and Advancing Efforts for Peak Carbon Emissions and Carbon Neutrality,which underscored the importance of raising the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption above 80%by 2060.As of 2022,coal-fired power accounted for roughly 60%of Chinas total e

146、lectricity generation3.According to estimates from the International Energy Agency(IEA),this proportion needs to fall to 5%by 2060,when coal-fired power will assume a more flexible role in tandem with carbon capture and storage technologies4.Additionally,forecasts from reputable energy agencies and

147、universities worldwide indicate that renewable energy generation,led by solar PV,wind,and hydroelectric sources,will gradually replace a substantial portion of current fossil fuel-based electricity.By 2050 and 2060,these renewables are anticipated to account for a significant 80%of the overall elect

148、ricity generation5(see Figure 1.1).Nevertheless,Chinas current energy and power structure still falls short of the vision behind 3 China Electricity Council,2022 Economic Operation Report for Chinas Electricity Industry,http:/ 4 International Energy Agency(2021),An Energy Sector Roadmap to Carbon Ne

149、utrality in China,https:/www.iea.org/reports/an-energy-sector-roadmap-to-carbon-neutrality-in-china/executive-summary?language=zh5 International Energy Agency(2021),An Energy Sector Roadmap to Carbon Neutrality in China,https:/www.iea.org/reports/an-energy-sector-roadmap-to-carbon-neutrality-in-chin

150、a/executive-summary?language=zh6 China Electricity Council,2022 Economic Operation Report for Chinas Electricity Industry,http:/ the Dual Carbon goals.In 2022,Chinas total installed capacity of wind and solar power amounted to 760 million kW,accounting for 36.2%of the total electricity generation fr

151、om non-fossil sources6.This suggests that,to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030,China needs to nearly double its installed wind and solar capacity from its 2022 levels.By 2060,the total share of renewable energy generation needs to grow by approximately 1.2x the 2022 figures.Amid this momentous tra

152、nsformation in energy and power structures,a green and low-carbon transition is the only viable route.China must expedite the development of renewable energy electricity while continuing to seek new opportunities for economic growth and industry transformation driven by new energy sources.Among thes

153、e energy sources,solar photovoltaics(PV),as the primary means of renewable energy generation,has emerged as an indispensable catalyst for realizing the Dual Carbon goals,driving energy transformation,and spurring local economic development.With the gradual reduction in the cost of solar PV generatio

154、n and the sustained enhancement of its efficiency,China is poised to raise the share of solar PV in its total electricity generation portfolio from a modest 5%in 2022 to a robust 45%by 2060.In the context of the Dual Carbon vision,solar PV is set to assume a prominent role in shaping Chinas electric

155、ity landscape.Consequently,a robust expansion of solar PV generation is a necessary path for China as it builds a new power system.20Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic GoalsFigure 1.1:Power Generation

156、 Forecast in 2050 and 2060 Under Carbon Neutrality Scenarios,as projected by RMI,Tsinghua University7,ERI,and CICC7 Institute of Energy,Environment and Economy,Tsinghua University,Analysis of Low-carbon Energy Transition Scenarios under the 2060 Carbon Neutrality Goal,http:/ EXAMPLEData Sources:Chin

157、a 2050 Outlook:A Fully Developed,Prosperous,Zero-Carbon Economic Entity,Analysis of Low-Carbon Energy Transition Scenarios under the 2060 Carbon Neutrality Goal,Chinas Energy Consumption and Emissions Scenarios for Achieving the Global 1.5C Target,China Climate Pathways Report,How Far Are We from Ca

158、rbon Neutrality:Energy and Power Sector1.BCG Report predicts zero emissions will be achieved by 2060,with an 80%reduction by 2050.RMIs 2050 Carbon Neutrality ScenarioERIs 2050 Carbon Neutrality ScenarioTsinghua Universitys 2060 Carbon Neutrality ScenarioCICCs 2050 Carbon Neutrality ScenarioInstalled

159、 Capacity for Electricity GenerationGWElectricity GenerationTWh3435837293516974100%=7,100 GW15,000 TWh28142116352313100018777100%=5,400 GW14,600 TWhSolar powerWind powerHydropowerNuclear powerBiomassNatural gasOtherSolar powerWind powerHydropowerNuclear powerBiomassNatural gasOther115142576493610110

160、0%=9,300 GW17,694 TWhSolar powerWind powerNuclear powerHydropowerFossil fuels131523303322100%=15,288 TWHBECCSBiomassSolar powerWind powerNuclear powerHydropowerCoal powerCoal power+CCS31021Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving th

161、e Dual Carbon Strategic GoalsIn contrast to large-scale ground-mounted solar PV facilities primarily situated in the“Three North”regions(Northeast China,North China,Northwest China),distributed solar PV installations are gaining traction due to their lower investment threshold,reduced construction c

162、osts,and versatile applications.These advantages have propelled their growth,positioning them as a pivotal force that can ensure China achieves its Dual Carbon goals on schedule.By 2022,centralized PV development had strong momentum,representing 60%of Chinas cumulative grid-connected PV capacity.At

163、the same time,the share of newly installed capacity from distributed PV continued to climb,accounting for 58%of new grid-connected PV installations in 2022.This trend represents a concurrent and robust expansion alongside centralized PV projects8.Among PV installations,household systems contributed

164、49%of all newly added grid-connected capacity,while commercial and industrial installations accounted for 51%,reflecting a relative balance between the two sectors9.Although Chinas wind and solar resources are primarily concentrated in western regions,electricity demand is heavily centered in the ce

165、ntral and southern regions,giving rise to a substantial need for cross-provincial transmission owing to this mismatch between supply and demand.Furthermore,large-scale ground-mounted wind and solar PV facilities feature significant fluctuations,necessitating 8 National Energy Administration,2022 Pho

166、tovoltaic Power Generation Construction and Operation Status,http:/ 9 National Energy Administration,2022 Photovoltaic Power Generation Construction and Operation Status,http:/ 10 Eastern regions include ten provinces and municipalities:Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei,Shanghai,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Fujian,Shandong

167、,Guangdong,and Hainan,according to https:/ 11 China Power Knowledge Thinker,2022 China Power Consumption Ranking by Province,with Guangdong,Shandong,and Jiangsu Leading the Way!,https:/ 12 Zhiyan Consulting,Research on the Investment Potential and Development Trends of the Chinese Power Industry fro

168、m 2023 to 2029,https:/ stringent requirements for supporting infrastructure such as transmission networks and peak-shaving capabilities.Conversely,distributed PV systems,due to their smaller scale,offer greater construction flexibility.Additionally,by generating power in proximity to end-users,distr

169、ibuted PV installations facilitate on-site utilization of the generated electricity.This approach drives more energy and power consumers to become producers,storers,and consumers all at once.Moreover,as distributed PV support mechanisms such as energy storage and electrical consumption equipment con

170、tinue to advance,they can make renewable energy utilization more efficient and ensure swift,cost-effective electricity supply to society.This will facilitate the coordinated and sustainable development of the power grid system and represents a pivotal direction for the future growth of renewable ene

171、rgy.1.2 Enormous development potential of rural household rooftop PVChinas rural areas possess a large amount of rooftop space,with clearly defined ownership rights among households.This renders them a pivotal avenue for advancing distributed PV in the densely populated eastern regions.In 2022,the e

172、astern regions10 annual electricity consumption exceeded 4 trillion kWh11,yet power generation only reached 3 trillion kWh12,resulting in a nearly 1 trillion kWh electricity deficit.Since 2020,annual 22Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and

173、 Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic Goalselectricity consumption in the eastern region has surged by approximately 7%,whereas annual power generation has grown by a mere 4%(refer to Figure 1.2),exacerbating the electricity shortfall.In the context of burgeoning economic and population growth,the ea

174、stern region must explore additional power resources.According to data compiled by Tsinghua Universitys Building Energy Research Center in collaboration with the National Remote Sensing Center of China,rural areas in China possess an aggregate rooftop area of 27.3 billion square meters.Utilizing thi

175、s figure as a baseline,the potential for rooftop residential PV installations is nearly 2 billion kW,with an annual electricity generation potential exceeding 2.5 trillion kWh.This capacity can fully offset the present electricity deficit in the eastern region.Given the scarcity of land resources in

176、 the eastern region,the sustainable,large-scale,and high-speed development of centralized power stations is difficult.Consequently,rural rooftop resources will become the main avenue for distributed PV expansion.With the backdrop of increasing urbanization,the incremental growth of rural rooftops ma

177、y gradually slow down.The construction of new dwellings will follow the targets outlined in Chinas 14th Five-Year Plan for new urbanization,which underscores the pivotal role of county towns in driving the development of their surrounding villages.It also requires the establishment of urban clusters

178、 to drive the development of surrounding areas and form a new pattern of urbanization.Furthermore,distributed PV technology continues to evolve.Building-integrated PV and potential innovations such as PV curtain walls are not confined solely to rooftop 3Electricity Demand in the Eastern Region Surpa

179、sses Generation,with the Gap Increasing Annually Due to Faster Growth in ConsumptionElectricity Consumption in the Eastern Region 2020-2022,in 100 million kWhElectricity Generation in the Eastern Region 2020-2022,in 100 million kWh35,43939,36640,306202020212022+7%p.a.Data Source:McKinseys Analysis28

180、,29430,37530,584202020212022+4%p.a.Figure 1.2:Electricity Demand in the Eastern Region Surpasses Generation,with the Gap Increasing Annually Due to Faster Growth in Consumption23Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carb

181、on Strategic Goalsspaces,but may create fresh market resources for the continued advancement of distributed PV.The extensive deployment of rural residential PV systems will furnish rural areas with a stable source of clean electricity during the energy transformation.Agriculture represents a signifi

182、cant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions,with data revealing that approximately 15%of Chinas carbon emissions stem from rural and agriculture-related activities13.Agricultural production accounts for half of this total,while the remaining half results from emissions linked to rural living,repres

183、enting 8.3%of total national emissions.14 In rural areas,heating and cooking are the primary energy consumption scenarios.Heating predominantly relies on coal,supplemented by firewood and electricity,resulting in considerable carbon emissions15.In addition to carbon dioxide,the combustion of coal an

184、d firewood creates large amounts of PM2.5 particles,carbon monoxide,sulfur dioxide,and other gases.Given the low source height of these emissions,the pollutants readily infiltrate the human respiratory system,pollute the air in rural areas,and pose health risks to residents.Carbon monoxide poisoning

185、 is prevalent in rural regions during the winter months,garnering significant attention from various sectors of society.Moreover,initiatives to promote clean heating,such as transitioning from coal to electricity or gas,face economic constraints and formidable obstacles.The construction of residenti

186、al PV systems is characterized by low environmental pollution.The electricity generation process is virtually emissions-free,13 Rural households Daily,Carbon Neutrality:Agriculture and Rural Areas Must Keep Pace,https:/ Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,2023 Chinas Low-carbon Development Repo

187、rt for Agriculture and Rural Areas,https:/ 15 China Climate Change Info-Net,One Billion Tons of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in A Year,Urgent Need for Heating Transformation,https:/ it a potent tool in combating air pollution,promoting energy conservation,and reducing emissions.This technology has the p

188、otential to serve as a viable alternative to coal consumption in rural areas.Calculations demonstrate that the installation of PV systems exceeding 2 kW on the roofs of rural houses could theoretically satisfy all of their electricity needs,including winter heating for a 50-square-meter primary room

189、,cooking,and the charging of various vehicles.Further integration with energy storage technologies and other resources would likely entirely replace the coal traditionally used for heating and cooking with solar power in rural areas,significantly curtailing greenhouse gas emissions from rural buildi

190、ngs.In short,rural residential PV systems possess the capacity to effectively lower electricity costs,stimulate energy conservation,reduce emissions,and offer a practical and economically efficient solution for effecting the transformation of rural energy.1.3 Rural residential PV:Fueling business in

191、vestments and rural revitalizationThe extensive promotion of rural residential PV as a novel energy investment pathway has given rise to substantial commercial opportunities and attracted a wide range of investors including private equity firms,multilateral investment banks,prominent state-owned ene

192、rgy conglomerates,and foreign energy enterprises.In August 2021,the PV company Chint Anneng secured a strategic investment of RMB 1 billion from IDG 24Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic GoalsCapital a

193、nd Sequoia China.In November,Asia Clean Capital,in collaboration with a subsidiary of State Power Investment Corporation,signed a strategic financing agreement for distributed PV projects.Notably,in December,the new energy company GCL-Poly obtained HKD 5 billion in financing from a group of investor

194、s including Hillhouse Capital.The enthusiastic participation of these investment entities is expediting capital operations within the PV industry16.These investors not only stand to gain long-term cash flows and substantial economic returns,but are also actively catalyzing the transformation and upg

195、rade of the energy structure.This endeavor will have a far-reaching impact on diminishing the reliance on fossil fuels and producing a broad and positive impact on society.Notably,rural residential PV has emerged as a critical instrument by which economically disadvantaged regions can lift themselve

196、s out of poverty.In addition to centralized PV stations in specific villages,rooftop residential PV installations are delivering tangible economic benefits directly to rural households.Presently,the return on investment(ROI)for residential PV is relatively stable in the range of 8%to 10%.It offers r

197、ooftop owners investment returns that are not only more stable but superior to those of other financial instruments.Moreover,Chinas PV Poverty Alleviation policy has established solar power as a permanent“sunshine bank”and“iron crop”for impoverished households.This policy has also become a pivotal o

198、pportunity for impoverished villages to break free from the cycle of poverty as well as an important means of 16 China Energy News,Easier Financing for the A-share Photovoltaic Industry,https:/ Peoples Daily,Energy Poverty Alleviation at the Household Level,Illuminating the Path to Prosperity for th

199、e Masses,http:/ Peoples Daily,Energy Poverty Alleviation at the Household Level,Illuminating the Path to Prosperity for the Masses,http:/ revitalization and poverty alleviation through asset income in various regions.Since the inception of PV poverty alleviation projects(PPAPs)in 2015,the government

200、 has issued and executed five batches of specialized PPAP plans up to 2020.Collectively,these initiatives resulted in a total capacity of 26.36 million kW for poverty alleviation,benefiting around 60,000 villages and 4.15 million impoverished households.These projects have yielded consistent annual

201、electricity revenues totaling around RMB 18 billion17.The formal confirmation of property rights at the village-level PV poverty alleviation stations showed that average annual income per village saw a stable increase of RMB 200,00018.Simultaneously,residential PV has generated employment opportunit

202、ies for residents unable to leave their villages.The different types of labor required for the construction,installation,and ongoing maintenance of PV systems,including installers,cleaners,transport workers,and maintenance personnel,do not require special skills or certifications.These roles are wel

203、l within the capabilities of local residents.For instance,in a county-level city planning to install 500 MW of residential PV,this initiative could create about 1,750 local jobs over an estimated 1 to 3-year period from customer acquisition to construction and then over the 25-year lifecycle of PV p

204、anels.These job opportunities span customer acquisition,front-end sales,construction,operation and maintenance,providing local residents with a diverse array of employment choices.This,in turn,serves to further invigorate rural economic development and revitalization.25Embarking on a New Era:Rural R

205、esidential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic GoalsIn terms of application scenarios,PV agriculture has evolved into a pioneering approach to comprehensive land utilization.Models like Agriculture-Solar Complementary and Fishery-Solar Comple

206、mentary combine PV power generation,agricultural production,and agricultural facilities.This approach conserves land while effectively utilizing surplus vertical space,thus boosting village revenue.At present,numerous energy pilot counties and villages in China are pioneering PV-based strategies.For

207、ging their own paths toward rural revitalization based on local attributes such as distinctive industries,climatic conditions,and economic factors,all revolving around the sunshine bank.For instance,in Yunnan Provinces Honghe County,collective village power stations have adeptly addressed economic i

208、ncome challenges for roughly 77 village collectives.Additionally,CNNP Rich Energys 250 MW Livestock-Solar Complementary compound PV project in Hualong Hui Autonomous County,Haidong City,Qinghai has been formally integrated into the grid and gone into operation.In terms of operational strategies,rura

209、l residential PV can be advanced on the basis of a village or township collective,with a unified PV development promotion plan formulated to boost collective income.For example,through the fusion of PV and agriculture,rural households can diversify their income sources.In addition to their revenues

210、from agriculture,they will receive periodic payments of electricity generation revenue.The PV poverty alleviation approach also allows for innovative and adaptable adjustments to the revenue-sharing model,tailored to the actual needs of local village collectives.In addition to securing stable income

211、 for rural households,electricity sales can amplify collective economic potential.This not only increases the annual dividends for rural households but also creates new employment opportunities within the PV industry supply chain,promoting true economic revitalization for rural collectives.In summar

212、y,rural residential PV in China,as a crucial avenue for decarbonization and income generation in rural areas,holds significant potential provided it enjoys policy support.With ongoing technological advancements and the maturation of supporting PV industry technologies such as energy storage and adap

213、tive regulation,the overall prospects for rural PV industry deployment are very promising.26Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic Goals2.1 Rapid growth and inland expansion of domestic distributed PVOver

214、 the past decade,Chinas installed PV capacity has witnessed a remarkable expansion.According to data from the National Energy Administration,as of 2023,Chinas cumulative installed PV capacity reached 608.9 gigawatts(GW),maintaining Chinas position as the global leader,which it has held for a decade.

215、Of this total capacity,distributed PV installations accounted for 254.4 GW,constituting 42%as the result of its 1 National Energy Administration,2023 Photovoltaic Power Generation Construction and Operation Status,https:/ surge since 2016.In 2023,the newly added PV grid-connected capacity in the Chi

216、nese market reached approximately 216.3 GW.Specifically,distributed PV contributed around 96.3 GW,representing 45%of the total new PV grid-connected capacity.Furthermore,residential PV systems generated approximately 43.5 GW1,as shown in Figure 2.1.Additionally,data from the China Photovoltaic Indus

217、try Association(CPIA)revealed that Chinas PV electricity generation in 2022 reached 427.6 billion kWh,a 30.8%year-on-year increase.Current Landscape,Prospects,and Challenges for the Development of Rural Residential PV in China0227Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chi

218、nas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic Goals12016-Q3 2022 Total Distributed PV Capacity Installed in China(GW)9.626.244.752.558.165.790.6138.65.910.120.241.867.1115.80204060801001402602001201801602202400.7201650.662.678.3107.5157.6182023173.5254.42221201910.329.7Residential

219、Industrial and CommercialDistributed PV electricity generation exceeded 120 billion kWh,growing by nearly 35%year-on-year.In 2022,the national average PV electricity utilization rate stood at 98.3%.Due to the national policy of comprehensive integration of distributed PV into the grid,the abandonmen

220、t rate for residential PV installations after grid integration approval was a mere 1.7%2.Forecasts indicate that,by 2025,Chinas newly added distributed PV capacity will reach 157 GW,constituting around 42%of total new PV installations.This trajectory 2 Central Peoples Government of the Peoples Repub

221、lic of China,Chinas Photovoltaic Power Generation Had An Average Utilization Rate of 98.3%Last Year,https:/ 3 McKinsey Forecast4 McKinsey Forecast:Every megawatt of photovoltaic power can reduce 1,200 tons of carbon dioxide equivalents annually.could narrow the gap between distributed and centralize

222、d PV installations in the future.From 2026 to 2030,projections show that new distributed installations will reach 201 GW,accounting for around 40%of total new PV installations3,as illustrated in Figure 2.2.By 2030,the annual increase in distributed PV capacity is forecasted to reduce carbon emission

223、s by approximately 430 million tons4.Notably,rural residential PV will play a pivotal role in Chinas overall decarbonization efforts.In recent years,rural areas in China have annually Figure 2.1 2016Q3 2023 Total Distributed PV Capacity Installed in China(GW)28Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residentia

224、l Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic Goalsconsumed nearly 350 billion kWh of electricity for domestic purposes,with an additional 150 billion kWh dedicated to production.Together,this totals nearly 500 billion kWh of electricity consumption

225、in rural areas each year.If all rural households in China adopt PV installations,the potential installed capacity could reach nearly 2 billion kW,with an electricity generation potential of approximately 2.5 trillion kWh5.This capacity is five times the current 5 Academician Jiang Yi,Carbon Emission

226、 Peak and Carbon Neutrality for Chinas Buildings,Public Forum of the 17th Tsinghua University Building Energy Conservation Academic Weekelectricity consumption in rural areas and could contribute up to 30%of Chinas total electricity generation in 2021(8.5 trillion kWh).In this way,rural areas could

227、effectively become massive power plants that meet their own power needs and then supply electricity to a wide range of other consumers.Moreover,the electricity consumption of rural areas is expected to further increase.Currently,daytime electricity consumption by households is limited,and nighttime

228、electricity needs Chinas New Installed PV Capacity1 2016-2030E(GW)13821829950021016-2072(34%)157(42%)26-30E21-25E375201(40%)13831938572(34%)187226(37%)16-20149174(41%)21024721-25E26-30E506-611210360-4201.In 2021,the share of distributed PV increased to 55%due to a rush to install before the end of s

229、ubsidies,while centralized installations were lower than normal due to rising silicon wafer prices and a slowdown in the announcement process for the 14th Five-Year Plan.We expect the distributed share to steadily increase in the future.Data Sources:Expert Interviews,China Photovoltaic Industry Asso

230、ciations Forecast,and Team AnalysisChina Photovoltaic Industry Associations ForecastTeam ForecastFigure 2.2 Estimated Growth Rate of Distributed PV Capacity Installed in China29Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbo

231、n Strategic Goalsare still supplied by the grid due to factors such as ongoing electrification,population migration,and immature energy storage technologies.This results in electricity consumption in rural areas hovering at approximately 10-15%of their potential PV generation capacity.However,with t

232、he increasing electrification of activities such as heating,cooking,transportation(including electric vehicles),and agricultural operations(e.g.,village-run factories and electrified farm machinery),in conjunction with the gradual maturation of energy storage technologies,rural areas may consume abo

233、ut 25%of their generation capacity if nighttime energy needs can be met by daytime PV generation.Simultaneously,even with the growth in household consumption rates,a 50%to 70%electricity surplus can still be fed back into the grid.This surplus can supply the energy needs of surrounding areas,contrib

234、uting to energy conservation and emissions reduction on a wider scale.Chinas vast expanse and regional disparities in geographical and economic development have given rise to significant differences in the installed PV capacities of different provinces,as shown in Figure 2.3.Consequently,the potenti

235、al for future installations and electricity generation likewise varies significantly by region.To estimate this potential,we base our calculations on the total area of rural housing in each province as of 2021.Assuming that rural buildings predominantly consist of one to two-story structures with ro

236、oftops capable of supporting 120 W/m2,and accounting for local sunlight resources,we computed the theoretical distributed installed PV capacity and electricity generation potential for each region,as shown in Figure 2.4.7Distribution of Distributed PV Capacity Installed in Provinces and Cities302021

237、92551861217042155521090383685067438742583498340132252193170912121084989922920902855830601461332237157151Shandong Zhejiang HebeiHenan Jiangsu Anhui Guangdong Jiangxi ShanxiFujianHunanHubei Shaanxi Liaoning Shanghai Inner Mongolia Heilongjiang Tianjin NingxiaJilinBeijing Gansu Guangxi Yunnan Hainan Si

238、chuan Guizhou Qinghai ChongqingTotal solar DG installation capacity,By the end of 2022,MWData Sources:National Energy Administration;expert interview;team analysis1000-5000500-100010000Figure 2.3 Distribution of Distributed PV Capacity Installed in Provinces and Cities30Embarking on a New Era:Rural

239、Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic Goals8Province(District,City)Total Village Housing Area(Including Public Buildings and Rural Production Buildings,in 100 million m)Installation Potential(GW)First-Year Hours for Electricity Gene

240、rationElectricity Generation Potential(in 100 million kWh)Henan24.5515010951645Sichuan23.2014212051712Shandong21.2713012361609Hunan20.991288851137Jiangsu18.2811211381273Anhui16.239910621055Guangdong15.34941043979Guangxi14.8391974884Hebei14.779013601229Yunnan14.548913001157Jiangxi13.8985995845Zhejian

241、g13.29811051855Hubei13.1781964777Guizhou11.4670837587Shaanxi10.63651171762Fujian9.57591076630Shanxi8.70531319702Chongqing8.1050799396Gansu6.24381536587Liaoning4.81291340395Heilongjiang4.38271346361Inner Mongolia4.19261605411Jilin3.55221334290Beijing2.64161340216Hainan1.87111223140Shanghai1.801110741

242、19Ningxia1.4391482129Qinghai1.2381684127Tianjin1.046130883Figure 2.4 Theoretical PV Generation Potential Calculated for Rural Areas of Various Provinces and Cities31Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic

243、GoalsIn addition to factors such as roof size and sunlight conditions,regional electricity prices are a significant driver for developing distributed PV markets across diverse areas.On one hand,as selling electricity to the grid remains the primary revenue stream for residential PV power stations,th

244、e local benchmark on-grid electricity price for coal-fired power serves as a predictive gauge for the economic viability of investments in power stations in the region.The higher the on-grid electricity price,the greater the revenue generated per kilowatt-hour.On the other hand,when evaluating the d

245、evelopment potential of the PV market,it is essential to consider the existing installed capacity of distributed PV within each province(see Figure 2.5).Provinces with limited installed capacity may face certain early-stage constraints that hinder the growth of the PV industry.Conversely,provinces w

246、ith substantial installed capacity may encounter slower near-term growth due to grid capacity limitations or because they are approaching installation saturation.Taking into consideration factors like available roof space in rural residences,sunlight conditions,and electricity price levels across pr

247、ovinces in 2021,the potential installed capacity for residential PV in rural areas6 can be broadly categorized into three potential zones:(1)High Potential Zone:Including provinces such as Jiangsu,Henan,Shandong,and Anhui,this zone is characterized by both a high installation potential and elevated

248、electricity price levels.(2)Medium Potential Zone:Including provinces such as Jiangxi,Hubei,and Fujian,this zone has a moderate installation potential.(3)Low Potential Zone:Including provinces such as Qinghai and Ningxia,this zone has a low installation potential and relatively low electricity price

249、 levels(see Figure 2.6).6 The term“potential”here refers to the total potential for installations,derived from the roof area multiplied by a certain coefficient.However,the actual regional development of distributed PV must also consider non-quantifiable factors such as local resource endowments,gri

250、d integration conditions,and regional policies related to new energy.Consequently,provinces in these categories should conduct thorough analyses based on their unique circumstances.Taking into account the diverse natural,social,and economic conditions mentioned above,using the theoretical residentia

251、l PV installed capacity in rural areas as our base framework,and also considering grid integration conditions,resource endowments,and policy inclinations in different regions,Chinas rural residential PV market potential can be classified into three primary tiers during the 14th Five-Year Plan period

252、,with provinces and municipalities as the basic units.In first-tier provinces and cities,rooftop PV exhibits significant potential owing to the ample available roof space,high installation capacity,relatively high electricity prices,favorable sunlight conditions,and substantial grid integration infr

253、astructure.These regions,including Jiangsu,Anhui,Zhejiang,and Guangdong,are actively promoting distribution grid upgrades and have already introduced clear-cut policies to encourage PV adoption.Jiangsu Province provides a case in point.There,electricity prices hover around RMB 0.38/kWh,and solar pow

254、er generation hours exceed 1,100 per year.Jiangsu is proactively transforming its power grid through digitization and dynamic capacity augmentation in transmission channels,fostering a conducive environment for the growth of distributed PV.In addition to the natural factors at play,policy incentives

255、 also play a pivotal role.For instance,in May 2023,the Guangdong 32Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic GoalsFigure 2.5 Benchmarks for On-Grid Electricity Prices in Coal-fired Power Generation and the I

256、nstalled Capacity of Distributed PV in Provinces and CitiesProvince(District/City)Total Distributed PVIndustrial&Commercial PVBenchmark Coal Power Price(RMB/kWh)Household PVCumulative Grid Connection Capacity as of the End of June 2023TotalBeijingTianjinHebeiShanxiShandongInner MongoliaLiaoningJilin

257、HeilongjiangShanghaiJiangsuZhejiangAnhuiFujianJiangxiHenanHubeiHunanChongqingSichuanShaanxiGansuQinghaiNingxiaGuangdongGuangxiHainanGuizhouYunnan19822.896.7134.32074.2520.93571.6143.8300.2100.4131.8195.32071.42222.31539.6609.9757.92448.5471.6488.736.437.6359.115.811417.61063.3105.484.42681.69502.430

258、.230.11600.1350.82322.165.4137.126.520.320.3511.8335.4743.3254.1350.81866.1138.3210.73.612.8138.72.5101.4169.81614.92.214.310320.466.5104.2474.1170.11249.578.4163.173.9115.51751559.61886.9796.3355.8407.1582.4333.327832.824.8220.410.94.9111.5N.A.893.589.469.523.867.30.35980.36550.36820.3320.39490.293

259、20.37490.37310.3740.41550.3910.41530.38440.39320.41430.37790.41610.450.39640.40120.35450.30780.32470.25950.4530.42070.42980.35150.3358Residential PV33Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic Goals10Regional

260、 Potential Map of Theoretical Installed Distributed Rooftop PV Capacity in Rural AreasYunnanHunanJiangsuHebeiGuangdongZhejiangAnhuiShaanxiJiangxiGuangxiHubeiSichuanShanxiFujianGansuLiaoningChongqingHeilongjiangHenanInner MongoliaJilinBeijingHainanShanghaiQinghaiNingxiaTianjinShandongGuizhouFeed-in T

261、ariffHighLowLowHighElectricity Generation PotentialCircle Size=2022 PV Market SizeHigh Potential RegionsMedium Potential RegionsMedium Potential RegionsLow Potential RegionsFigure 2.6 Regional Potential Map of Theoretical Residential PV Installed Capacity in Rural AreasProvincial Energy Bureau intro

262、duced the Implementation Plan for Promoting High-Quality Energy Development in Guangdong Province(2023-2025),which proposes robust support for“residential PV+rural revitalization”.This initiative emphasizes the need to align distributed PV development with local conditions and provides explicit poli

263、cy backing.Within the first tier,some provinces and municipalities boast a considerable PV market size,theoretically abundant sunlight resources,expansive rooftop space,and high electricity prices,making them high-potential areas for residential PV development.Nevertheless,due to policies such as“co

264、unty-wide advancement”,these regions have 34Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic Goalsattracted a multitude of stakeholders and,given the current status of the distribution network,their remaining capac

265、ity for grid-connected distributed PV is approaching saturation.Provinces like Shandong,Henan,and Hebei are major areas of PV development,but may witness restrictions in future development.For instance,in 2021,Shandong added 7.63 GW of residential PV installations for a total installed capacity of 1

266、5.93 GW,a remarkable 91.9%year-on-year increase.This enabled Shandong to rank first in both annual growth and total installed capacity nationwide7.However,according to estimates from a Yantai-based dealer in Shandong,“if the existing transformer capacity in Shandong remains unchanged,and no new poli

267、cies are introduced,our companys market research suggests that residential PV installations in Shandong have,at most,another three years of development potential.In certain densely developed areas,saturation may even occur within the coming year”8.Grid integration constraints loom as the foremost im

268、pediment to residential PV expansion.At the same time,Sichuan Province,theoretically classified within the first tier,has distinctive characteristics.Despite its high feed-in tariffs,expansive rural rooftop acreage,and high average annual sunlight hours that would theoretically allow it to be a majo

269、r PV region,Sichuan experiences a profound imbalance in the distribution of solar resources.The western plateau and southwestern mountainous regions enjoy a wealth of solar resources due to their long dry seasons.However,due to the high altitude,the population is sparse in these areas.Most rural roo

270、ftop resources are 7 Dazhong Daily,Shandong Leads in Both Growth and Scale of Household Photovoltaic Installations Nationwide,http:/ Century New Energy Network,How Much Space is Left for Household Photovoltaics in Shandong,https:/ within the Sichuan Basin,characterized by a damp and rainy climate an

271、d sub-optimal sunlight conditions.Consequently,the province continued to emphasize the development of high-altitude centralized PV power stations.Among second-tier provinces and cities,substantial potential for residential PV installations exists,with electricity prices situated at moderate levels.W

272、hile these regions may have less favorable natural conditions compared to their first-tier counterparts,rooftops with ample space,favorable orientations,and suitable slopes are gradually being developed.This,combined with policy initiatives and measures such as grid upgrades,indicates future growth

273、prospects for rural PV installations.Representative provinces within this category are Hubei,Jiangxi,Fujian,Shaanxi,and Liaoning.Although regions such as Hubei and Jiangxi may have only average sunlight conditions,they boast expansive rooftop areas and competitive electricity prices.Several enterpri

274、ses have already commenced market exploration based on their existing installation capacities.In addition,the market outlook is further improved by supportive policies.For example,in June 2021,Hubei introduced the Hubei Province New Energy Project Construction Plan for 2021(Draft for Comment),advoca

275、ting the comprehensive promotion of residential PV power generation throughout the province.The plan also emphasizes the development of the carbon market to facilitate overall emissions reduction and drive the provinces Dual Carbon goals.In its 14th Five-Year Plan of Liaoning Province for Ecological

276、 Economic Development released in January 2022,35Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic GoalsLiaoning Province vigorously promotes the diversified utilization of solar energy and the establishment of vill

277、age-level PV power stations.It is expected that,as the PV market in first-tier provinces and municipalities continues to reach saturation,rapid development in the sector will pass to second-tier regions for a time.In the third-tier provinces and cities,despite advantageous electricity prices and hou

278、rs of sunlight,several factors,including significant terrain variations,dispersed rural rooftops,high customer acquisition costs for developers,and the need for time-consuming grid upgrades,curtail the economic viability of local distributed PV projects.As a result,residential PV has not been widely

279、 promoted in these regions,which include provinces such as Ningxia and Gansu.Both Ningxia and Gansu have approximately 1,500 hours of first-year electricity generation,yet challenges such as scattered rural residences,relatively poor rooftop conditions,mediocre grid integration,and high customer acq

280、uisition costs limit the potential for distributed PV development.Therefore,utility scale PV stations are more prevalent in these two provinces.Shanxi Province in the third tier,while theoretically falling into the low-potential installation category due to limited rooftop availability and lower ele

281、ctricity pricing,has a unique trajectory.A traditional fossil fuel-dependent province,the Shanxi Government has introduced an array of PV support policies under the pollution reduction and carbon reduction mandate.These policies aim to enhance rural grid structures,improve rural electrification leve

282、ls,and stimulate distributed PV development.As a result,Shanxi is anticipated to have certain development potential in the future.With the continuous rise in urbanization rates and the gradual decrease in rural population,the yearly growth in new housing construction in rural areas has steadily fall

283、en.During the 14th Five-Year Plan period,it is predicted that the total available rooftop space in rural areas will remain relatively stable.According to data from the Seventh National Population Census,the rural population in China stands at 509.79 million,a decrease of 164.36 million compared to 2

284、010.Concurrently,the completed construction area of rural residential buildings had contracted from 878 million square meters in 2012 to 480 million square meters in 2020.This significant reduction in newly constructed rural residential areas signals a corresponding decline in available rooftop spac

285、e.For a certain period,the theoretical installed capacity and electricity generation potential of Chinas rural PV market will hover around 2 billion kW and 2.5 trillion kWh,respectively.However,as of 2021,the total installed capacity of residential PV in China amounted to 67 GW,only 4%of the total p

286、otential installed capacity in the rural PV market.A collective effort from all sectors of society is needed to significantly boost rural PV coverage.36Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic Goals2.2 Tech

287、nological advancements,financial support,and socioeconomic improvements fuel the comprehensive growth of the distributed PV marketWith continuous innovations in solar technology and steady improvements in the conversion efficiency of PV modules,the economic viability of solar power has significantly

288、 increased.Over the past decade,the levelized cost of electricity(LCOE)for residential and commercial solar PV has seen a notable drop of approximately 30%9.The gradual adoption of time-of-use electricity pricing mechanisms further highlights the economic advantages of solar energy.Some provinces an

289、d municipalities have increased their peak-to-valley electricity price differentials by as much as 70%10,favoring distributed PV generation during periods of high electricity prices and thereby increasing overall electricity revenue.Furthermore,29 provinces and municipalities in China have transitio

290、ned away from fixed electricity price catalogs for industrial and commercial users,moving toward a more market-oriented pricing structure.In addition,carbon emission trading has become an important factor when evaluating the future economic feasibility of PV,and the opening of a carbon emission trad

291、ing market is now on the agenda.In April 2023,the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued a Public Invitation for Proposals Regarding Methodologies for Voluntary Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Projects,soliciting suggestions from the general public.During a routine press 9 Wood Mackenzie,A Dee

292、p Dive into Chinas Renewables Landscape,https:/ Hebei Provincial Development and Reform Commission,Peak and Off-peak Electricity Prices Fluctuate by 70%!China Southern Power Grid in Hebei Adjusts Time-of-Use Electricity Price Policy for Commercial and Other Users,https:/ in June 2023,the Ministry of

293、 Ecology and Environment unveiled plans to expedite the establishment of various systems and infrastructure,with the goal of initiating a national voluntary trading market for greenhouse gas emissions as early as within the year.This signifies a reactivation of the China Certified Emission Reduction

294、(CCER)mechanism.Concurrently,the approval of the Green Electricity Trading Pilot Program has created a conducive environment for solar PV projects to participate in domestic carbon certification and trading.The National Energy Administration is actively exploring the incorporation of residential PV

295、into the green electricity and green certificate trading markets.In April 2023,the Administration issued the 2023 Energy Work Guidance,which clearly states the need to robustly promote the construction of distributed PV projects,advance comprehensive green certificate issuance,and ensure seamless in

296、tegration with carbon trading.These efforts are expected to effectively enhance electricity generation revenues and build enthusiasm for the development of distributed PV.The PV sector is constantly taking in financial resources,making it possible to extend financing and loan support for residential

297、 PV development.As commercial banks increasingly recognize the value of PV assets,they are exploring various market-driven financial instruments to increase the supply of loans.Some commercial banks have adopted multiple guarantee models for residential PV projects.These include unconventional colla

298、teral,such as movable property mortgages and 37Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic Goalsthe pledging of electricity fee collection rights,to obtain financial support for residential PV initiatives.Simu

299、ltaneously,the government is actively promoting innovative PV loan models.On July 2,2021,the National Development and Reform Commission released the Notice on Further Improving the Pilot Work of Real Estate Investment Trusts(REITs)in the Infrastructure Sector(referred to as“Document 98”).This docume

300、nt states that solar PV projects could now apply for REITs across regions and projects in pilot cities,introducing a novel financing model for residential PV projects spanning entire counties.In December 2022,the Special Support Plan for State Power Investment Corporation-Chongqing Electric Powers E

301、nergy Infrastructure Investment in residential PV Green Assets(quasi-REITs)was successfully launched at a scale of RMB 1.4 billion.This instrument serves the rural revitalization and the Dual Carbon strategy,marking the introduction of Chinas first residential PV infrastructure REITs.It represents a

302、 significant step forward in enhancing the accessibility of financial resources for rural distributed PV.Furthermore,the thriving technological R&D environment is propelling advances in talent and technology within the residential PV market.In 2021,the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology

303、 unveiled the Action Plan for Innovative Development of the Intelligent Photovoltaic Industry,which encourages accelerated technological innovation in the PV sector,increases smart manufacturing capabilities,and reinforces talent development within the PV field.In 2022,nine government departments,in

304、cluding the Ministry of Science and Technology,jointly issued the Implementation Plan for Technological Support for Carbon Emissions Peaking and Carbon Neutrality(2022-2030).This plan promotes active research and development in cutting-edge technologies,including floating PV systems,key equipment an

305、d flexible technologies for power supply and distribution in the Photovoltaic-Energy storage-Direct current-Flexibility(PEDF)model,technology systems for building integrated PV(BIPV),and source-grid-load-storage technologies and equipment for regional-building energy systems.In addition,the concept

306、of sustainable social development continues to deepen,influencing a wide array of stakeholders to actively engage in the construction of the residential PV market.Enterprises are increasingly embracing the idea of energy conservation and emissions reduction,leading to heightened interest in green in

307、vestment opportunities.Individual consumers,inspired by global climate change and the principles of sustainable development,demonstrate a preference for green and low-carbon products in their consumption patterns.This trend is evident in their growing interest in new energy vehicles and their height

308、ened awareness of carbon footprints.38Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic Goals2.3 Strong government support drives distributed PV development,actively promoting the realization of the Dual Carbon goal

309、sCarbon emissions peaking and carbon neutrality have been enshrined as important national strategies for China,making promoting the development of distributed PV an important avenue and measure for realizing the Dual Carbon goals.Since 2009,the Chinese government has demonstrated a strong commitment

310、 to PV power and progressively guided the maturation and spread of the distributed PV sector through its policy framework.During the 12th Five-Year Plan period,China clarified the strategic importance of PV by introducing a series of supporting mechanisms and administrative measures.These directives

311、 provided explicit regulations concerning grid construction,grid integration procedures,and subsidy frameworks.As the economic viability of PV steadily improved,subsidies for rural residential PV systems began to be gradually reduced,marking the transition toward the era of grid parity.Concurrently,

312、certain regions continued to bolster subsidies for distributed PV development,creating a new competitive landscape in the market.In 2021,the National Development and Reform Commission released the Notice on Relevant Matters Concerning the 2021 New Energy Grid Electricity Pricing Policy,which mandate

313、d that central government subsidies would no longer be extended to newly registered industrial and commercial distributed PV projects.Instead,these projects would operate at grid parity,with only limited central government subsidies allocated to residential PV projects.Even though national subsidies

314、 were phased out of the market in 2022,some rural residential PV projects still benefit from subsidies offered at the municipal or district level(refer to Figure 2.7).For instance,Leqing City in Zhejiang Province provides a subsidy of RMB 0.1/kWh to distributed PV projects connected to the grid afte

315、r January 1,2022.In Ningbo City,Zhejiang Province,residential BIPV projects connected between 2021 and 2025 are granted a subsidy of RMB 0.3/kWh.Similarly,in Xian City,Shaanxi Province,distributed PV projects connected between 2021 and 2023 receive a subsidy of RMB 0.1/kWh.Moreover,alongside the pro

316、vision of local subsidies,several provinces and municipalities are proactively exploring additional policy supports to enhance the economic viability of distributed PV generation and propel the development of the PV industry.Among these initiatives is the Carbon-Inclusive Trading Management Measures

317、 of Guangdong Province introduced by the Guangdong Provincial Department of Ecology and Environment in 2022.This policy proposed a carbon-inclusive mechanism,enabling distributed PV to apply for certification of carbon-inclusive emission reductions.These reductions can then be traded through methods

318、 such as listing and selection,competitive bidding,and agreement transfers.As the trend of residential PV installations continues to rise,the phased withdrawal of distributed PV subsidies will not severely impact profitability.While the short-term withdrawal of subsidies might decrease profits and l

319、ead to industry reshuffling and many enterprises without competitive advantages are expected to exit the market,the shift towards grid parity will compel enterprises to accelerate their transformations.Numerous high-quality PV enterprises are exploring innovative development 39Embarking on a New Era

320、:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic Goals2021-01Beijing Xicheng District Administrative Measures to Support and Encourage Energy Conservation and Consumption Reduction(Revised)Xicheng District,BeijingInstallation subsidy,30

321、%of total investment2021-04Notice on Adjusting the Municipal Financial Subsidies for Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects for Residents Across the CityYueqing City,Zhejiang ProvinceGeneration subsidy,RMB 0.1-0.2/kWh2021-05Measures of Guangzhou Huangpu District,Guangzhou Economic and Te

322、chnological Development Zone,Guangzhou High-tech Industrial Development Zone for Promoting Green and Low-Carbon DevelopmentGuangzhou Huangpu District,Guangzhou Economic and Technological Development Zone,Guangzhou High-tech Industrial Development ZoneGeneration subsidy,RMB 0.15-0.3/kWh2021-05Announc

323、ement on Soliciting Opinions on the Continued Implementation of the Administrative Measures for Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects by Dongguan Development&Reform BureauDongguan City,Guangdong ProvinceGeneration subsidy,RMB 0.1-0.3/kWh2021-08Implementation Measures for Relocating Farm

324、houses to Apartment-Style Settlements in Baibu Town(Trial)Haiyan County,Zhejiang ProvinceInstallation subsidy,RMB 0.8/W2021-09Reply to Proposal No.20220188 of the First Session of the Second District Political Consultative Conference of Fenghua District Peoples GovernmentNingbo City,Zhejiang Provinc

325、eGeneration subsidy,RMB 0.3/kWh2021-09Interim Measures for Promoting Green Development in Jiangning Economic and Technological Development ZoneNanjing Economic and Technological Development Zone,Jiangsu ProvinceGeneration subsidy,RMB 0.1/kWh;installation subsidy,RMB 0.2/WSubsidy FormatLocationPolicy

326、 NameRelease DateFigure 2.7 Overview of Local Subsidy Policies for Distributed PV in China(20212022)1/22021-10Action Plan for Energy Conservation and Transformation of Thousand Enterprises in the Manufacturing Industry of Wenzhou City(2021-2023)Wenzhou City,Zhejiang ProvinceGeneration subsidy,RMB 0.

327、1/kWh2021-11Implementation Opinions of Lishui Municipal Peoples Government on Accelerating the Scale Development of Distributed PhotovoltaicsLishui City,Zhejiang ProvinceInstallation subsidy,RMB 0.6/W,decreasing by RMB 0.1/W annually2021-11Notice on the Implementation Plan of Distributed Photovoltai

328、c Scale Development in Wujiang DistrictWujiang District,Suzhou CityGeneration subsidy,RMB 0.1/kWhSubsidy FormatLocationPolicy NameRelease Date2021-12Several Policies for Promoting High-Quality Development of Manufacturing Industry in Fanchang District to Create a Smart Manufacturing City in Fanchang

329、 BlockFanchang District,Wuhu City,Anhui ProvinceInstallation subsidy,RMB 0.2/W2022-01Several Opinions of the Peoples Government Office of Pinghu City on the New Round of Encouragement for Photovoltaic Power Generation Project ConstructionPinghu City,Zhejiang ProvinceInstallation subsidy,RMB 1/W2022-

330、01Several Measures for Promoting Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation(Draft for Comment)Shenzhen City,Guangdong ProvinceGeneration subsidy,RMB 0.1-0.3/kWh40Embarking on a New Era:Rural Residential Photovoltaics Are Driving Chinas Rural Revitalization and Achieving the Dual Carbon Strategic Goal

331、s2021-12Public Notice on the Implementation Plan of Rooftop Distributed Photovoltaic Development Pilot Project in Keqiao DistrictKeqiao District,Zhejiang ProvinceGeneration subsidy,RMB 0.25/kWh2021-12Opinions on Supporting Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation in Taishun County(Draft for Comment

332、)Taishun County,Zhejiang ProvinceInstallation subsidy,RMB 0.05-0.5/W based on flat to slope renovation,installation time,and capacity2021-12Several Policies for Promoting High-Quality Development of Manufacturing Industry in Fanchang District to Create a Smart Manufacturing City in Fanchang BlockFan

333、chang District,Wuhu City,Anhui ProvinceInstallation subsidy,RMB 0.2/W2022-01Several Opinions of the Peoples Government Office of Pinghu City on the New Round of Encouragement for Photovoltaic Power Generation Project ConstructionPinghu City,Zhejiang ProvinceInstallation subsidy,RMB 1/W2022-01Several Measures for Promoting Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation(Draft for Comment)Shenzhen City,Gu