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1、Analysis and forecast to 2026Electricity 2024The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA advocates p

2、olicies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,13 association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of internation

3、al frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.orgIEA member countries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherland

4、sNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TrkiyeUnited KingdomUnited StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:Argentina BrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingapore South Africa Thailand Ukrai

5、neINTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCYRevised version,January and May 2024 Information notice found at:www.iea.org/correctionsElectricity 2024 Abstract Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|3 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Abstract Electricity is central to the functioning of modern societies and economies and its importance is

6、 only growing as technologies that run on electricity,such as electric vehicles and heat pumps,become increasingly popular.Power generation is currently the largest source of carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions in the world,but it is also the sector leading the transition to net zero emissions through the

7、rapid expansion of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power.Ensuring consumers have secure and affordable access to electricity while also reducing global carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions is one of the core challenges of the energy transition.Given these trends,the International Energy Agen

8、cys Electricity 2024 is essential reading.It offers a deep and comprehensive analysis of recent policies and market developments,and provides forecasts through 2026 for electricity demand,supply and CO2 emissions.The IEAs electricity sector report,which has been published regularly since 2020,provid

9、es insight into the evolving generation mix.In addition,this years report features in-depth analysis on the drivers of recent declines in electricity demand in Europe;the data centre sectors impact on electricity consumption;and recent developments in the global nuclear power sector.Electricity 2024

10、 Acknowledgements,contributors and credits Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|4 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Acknowledgements,contributors and credits This study was prepared by the Gas,Coal and Power Markets(GCP)Division of the International Energy Agency(IEA).It was designed and directed by Eren am,Energy Analy

11、st for Electricity.The main authors are:Eren am,Zoe Hungerford,Niklas Schoch,Francys Pinto Miranda,Carlos David Yez de Len.Keisuke Sadamori,director of the IEA Energy Markets and Security(EMS)Directorate and Dennis Hesseling,Head of GCP,provided expert guidance and advice.Valuable comments and guida

12、nce were provided by other senior management within the IEA,in particular,Laura Cozzi and Tim Gould.In addition,expert guidance and valuable input of Carlos Fernndez lvarez,Senior Energy Analyst,is greatly appreciated.The report also benefited from analysis,data and input from Syrine El Abed,Nadim A

13、billama,Jenny Birkeland,Javier Jorquera Copier,Keith Everhart,Carole Etienne,Stavroula Evangelopoulou,Takeshi Furukawa,Gaia Guadagnini,Astha Gupta,Craig Hart,Julian Keutz,Jinpyung Kim,Pablo Hevia-Koch,Rena Kuwahata,Arne Lilienkamp,Rita Madeira,Gergely Molnr,John Moloney,Yu Nagatomi,Ranya Oualid,Cami

14、lle Paillard,Isaac Portugal,Brendan Reidenbach,Frederick Ritter.IEA colleagues across the agency provided valuable input,comments and feedback,in particular,Heymi Bahar,Alessandro Blasi,Toril Bosoni,Stphanie Bouckaert,Elizabeth Connelly,Ciarn Healy,Paul Hugues,Tae-Yoon Kim,Martin Kppers,Yannick Mons

15、chauer,Apostolos Petropoulos,Uwe Remme,Max Schnfisch,Leonie Staas,Gianluca Tonolo,Anthony Vautrin,Brent Wanner and Jacques Warichet.The authors would also like to thank Diane Munro for skilfully editing the manuscript and the IEA Communication and Digital Office,in particular,Jethro Mullen,Julia Hor

16、owitz and Astrid Dumond.We also thank Einar Einarsson for his assistance on setting up the peer review.Many experts from outside of the IEA reviewed the report and provided valuable input and comments.They include:Michel Berthlemy(NEA),Sarah Keay-Bright(ESO),Bram Claeys(RAP),Brent Dixon(INL),Ganesh

17、Doluweera(CER),Fernando Dominguez(EU DSO Entity),Electricity 2024 Acknowledgements,contributors and credits Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|5 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Carlos Finat(KAEL),Peter Fraser(independent consultant),Rafael Muruais Garcia(ACER EUROPA),Rafaila Grigoriou(VaasaETT),Edwin Haesen(ENTSOE),

18、Jan Horst Keppler(NEA),Donghoon Kim(SK),Wikus Kruger(University of Cape Town),Francisco Lavern(Iberdrola),King Lee(WNA),Stefan Lorenczik(Frontier Economics),Akos Losz(Columbia University),Christoph Maurer(Consentec),Tatiana Mitrova(Columbia University),Enrique De Las Morenas Moneo(ENEL),Emmanuel Nea

19、u(EDF),Noor Miza Razali(Tenaga Nasional Berhad),Ana Lia Rojas(ACERA Chile),Samir Chandra Saxena(POSOCO),Mara Sicilia(ENAGAS),Marcio Szechtman(CIGRE),Kunie Taie(IEEJ),Arjon Valencia(IEMOP),Johannes Wagner(Guidehouse),Matthew Wittenstein(ESCAP)and Rina Bohle Zeller(Vestas).Electricity 2024 Table of Co

20、ntents Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|6 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Table of Contents Executive summary.8 Global trends.15 Demand:Global electricity use posts strong growth to 2026.15 Emerging economies are the engines of global electricity demand growth.15 China has the largest increase in electricity deman

21、d,while India sees the fastest growth.17 Southeast Asia and India make strides in per capita electricity use,but Africa lags behind.19 Spotlight:Navigating the uncertainties in the recovery of EU electricity demand.20 Global electricity demand from data centres could double towards 2026.31 Rising se

22、lf-consumption in distributed systems and data collection challenges.37 Supply:Clean electricity to meet all additional demand out to 2026.40 Renewables overtake coal as the largest source of global electricity supply in 2025.40 Coal constrained by renewables in China,but not in other parts of Asia.

23、42 Spotlight:Nuclear generation will reach a new record high by 2025.44 Hydropower generation was reduced in 2023 in numerous regions due to weather impact.55 The supply chain of gas turbines is geographically concentrated in different ways.56 Emissions:CO2 from electricity sector entering a structu

24、ral decline.61 China accounts for half of the decline in global power generation emissions to 2026.61 China,the United States and European Union lead declines in power sector emissions.62 Emission intensity of the power sector to fall at an unprecedented rate.63 Prices:Wholesale electricity prices f

25、all from record highs.65 Electricity prices in many regions still remain above pre-pandemic levels.65 What does energy-intensive industry pay for electricity across the world?.69 Household electricity prices and affordability.73 Reliability:Monitoring electricity security remains essential.76 Specif

26、ic measures and markets for system inertia are becoming common.76 Extreme weather events caused large-scale power outages in 2023.78 Supply and grid issues led to major outages mostly in emerging and developing countries.80 Understanding the human factor in power disruptions and outages.82 Regional

27、focus.88 Asia Pacific.88 Americas.110 Europe.121 Eurasia.138 Middle East.142 Electricity 2024 Table of Contents Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|7 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Africa.148 Annexes.159 Summary tables.159 Regional and country groupings.164 Abbreviations and acronyms.166 Units of measure.168 Electri

28、city 2024 Executive summary Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|8 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Executive summary Global electricity demand rose moderately in 2023 but is set to grow faster through 2026 Falling electricity consumption in advanced economies restrained growth in global power demand in 2023.The worlds

29、 demand for electricity grew by 2.2%in 2023,less than the 2.4%growth observed in 2022.While China,India and numerous countries in Southeast Asia experienced robust growth in electricity demand in 2023,advanced economies posted substantial declines due to a lacklustre macroeconomic environment and hi

30、gh inflation,which reduced manufacturing and industrial output.Global electricity demand is expected to rise at a faster rate over the next three years,growing by an average of 3.4%annually through 2026.The gains will be driven by an improving economic outlook,which will contribute to faster electri

31、city demand growth both in advanced and emerging economies.Particularly in advanced economies and China,electricity demand will be supported by the ongoing electrification of the residential and transport sectors,as well as a notable expansion of the data centre sector.The share of electricity in fi

32、nal energy consumption is estimated to have reached 20%in 2023,up from 18%in 2015.While this is progress,electrification needs to accelerate rapidly to meet the worlds decarbonisation targets.In the IEAs Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario,a pathway aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5 C,elec

33、tricitys share in final energy consumption nears 30%in 2030.Electricity consumption from data centres,artificial intelligence(AI)and the cryptocurrency sector could double by 2026.Data centres are significant drivers of growth in electricity demand in many regions.After globally consuming an estimat

34、ed 460 terawatt-hours(TWh)in 2022,data centres total electricity consumption could reach more than 1 000 TWh in 2026.This demand is roughly equivalent to the electricity consumption of Japan.Updated regulations and technological improvements,including on efficiency,will be crucial to moderate the su

35、rge in energy consumption from data centres.Emerging and developing economies are the engines of global electricity demand growth About 85%of additional electricity demand through 2026 is set to come from outside advanced economies,with China contributing substantially even as the countrys economy u

36、ndergoes structural changes.In 2023,Chinas Electricity 2024 Executive summary Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|9 I EA.CC BY 4.0.electricity demand rose by 6.4%,driven by the services and industrial sectors.With the countrys economic growth expected to slow and become less reliant on heavy industry

37、,the pace of Chinese electricity demand growth eases to 5.1%in 2024,4.9%in 2025 and 4.7%in 2026 in our forecasts.Even so,the total increase in Chinas electricity demand through 2026 of about 1 400 TWh is more than half of the European Unions current annual electricity consumption.Electricity consump

38、tion per capita in China already exceeded that of the European Union at the end of 2022 and is set to rise further.The rapidly expanding production of solar PV modules and electric vehicles,and the processing of related materials,will support ongoing electricity demand growth in China while the stru

39、cture of its economy evolves.China provides the largest share of global electricity demand growth in terms of volume,but India posts the fastest growth rate through 2026 among major economies.Following a 7%increase in Indias electricity demand in 2023,we expect growth above 6%on average annually unt

40、il 2026,supported by strong economic activity and expanding ownership of air conditioners.Over the next three years,India will add electricity demand roughly equivalent to the current consumption of the United Kingdom.While renewables are set to meet almost half of this demand growth,one-third is ex

41、pected to come from rising coal-fired generation.We also expect Southeast Asia to see robust annual increases in electricity demand of 5%on average through 2026,led higher by strong economic activity.While electricity use per capita in India and Southeast Asia is rapidly rising,it has been effective

42、ly stagnant in Africa for more than three decades.Per capita consumption in Africa even declined in recent years as the population grew faster than electricity supply was made available,and we only expect it to recover to its 2010-15 levels by the end of 2026 at the earliest.Thirty years ago,a perso

43、n in Africa consumed more electricity on average than someone living in India or Southeast Asia.However,strong increases in electricity demand and supply in India and Southeast Asia in recent decades which have gone hand in hand with a boom in economic development have transformed these regions at a

44、 spectacular pace.Meanwhile,Africas per capita electricity consumption in 2023 was half that of India and 70%lower than in Southeast Asia.Our forecast for Africa for the 2024-26 period anticipates average annual growth in total electricity demand of 4%,double the mean growth rate observed between 20

45、17 and 2023.Two-thirds of this growth in demand is set to be met by expanding renewables,with the remainder covered mostly by natural gas.Electricity demand in the United States fell by 1.6%in 2023 after increasing 2.6%in 2022,but it is expected to recover in the 2024-26 outlook period.A key reason

46、for the decline was milder weather in 2023 compared with 2022,though a slowdown in the manufacturing sector was also a factor.We forecast a Electricity 2024 Executive summary Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|10 I EA.CC BY 4.0.moderate increase in demand of 2.5%in 2024,assuming a reversion to avera

47、ge weather conditions.This will be followed by growth averaging 1%in 2025-26,led by electrification and the expansion of the data centre sector,which is expected to account for more than one-third of additional demand through 2026.Slim chances of a quick recovery for energy-intensive industries in t

48、he European Union Electricity demand in the European Union declined for the second consecutive year in 2023,even though energy prices fell from record highs.Following a 3.1%drop in 2022,the 3.2%year-on-year decline in EU demand in 2023 meant that it dropped to levels last seen two decades ago.As in

49、2022,weaker consumption in the industrial sector was the main factor that reduced electricity demand,as energy prices came down but remained above pre-pandemic levels.In 2023,there were also signs of some permanent demand destruction,especially in the energy-intensive chemical and primary metal prod

50、uction sectors.These segments will remain vulnerable to energy price shocks over our outlook period.EU electricity consumption is not expected to return to 2021 levels until 2026 at the earliest.Electricity demand in the European Unions industrial sector fell by an estimated 6%in 2023 after a simila

51、r decline in 2022.Assuming the industrial sector gradually recovers as energy prices moderate,EU electricity demand growth is forecast to rise by an average 2.3%in 2024-26.Electric vehicles,heat pumps and data centres will remain strong pillars of growth over the period together accounting for half

52、of expected gains in total demand.Electricity prices for energy-intensive industries in the European Union in 2023 were almost double those in the United States and China.Despite an estimated 50%price decline in the European Union in 2023 versus 2022,energy-intensive industries in the region continu

53、ed to face far higher electricity costs compared with the United States and China in the aftermath of Russias invasion of Ukraine.The price gap between energy-intensive industries in the European Union and those in the United States and China,which already existed before the energy crisis,has widene

54、d.As a result,the competitiveness of EU energy-intensive industries is expected to remain under pressure.Policy makers are currently discussing new policy initiatives and financial instruments to enable the European Union to position itself among other global industrial heavyweights.The scope and ef

55、fectiveness of these measures will likely determine the future of the European Unions energy-intensive industrial sector.Electricity 2024 Executive summary Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|11 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Clean electricity supply is forecast to meet all of the worlds demand growth through 2026 R

56、ecord-breaking electricity generation from low-emissions sources which includes nuclear and renewables such as solar,wind and hydro is set to cover all global demand growth over the next three years.Low-emissions sources,which will reduce the role of fossil fuels in producing electricity globally,ar

57、e forecast to account for almost half of the worlds electricity generation by 2026,up from 39%in 2023.Over the next three years,low-emissions generation is set to rise at twice the annual growth rate between 2018 and 2023 a consequential change,given that the power sector contributes the most to glo

58、bal carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions today.Renewables are set to provide more than one-third of total electricity generation globally by early 2025,overtaking coal.The share of renewables in electricity generation is forecast to rise from 30%in 2023 to 37%in 2026,with the growth largely supported by the

59、 expansion of ever cheaper solar PV.Through this period,renewables are set to more than offset demand growth in advanced economies such as the United States and the European Union,displacing fossil-fired supply.At the same time,in China,the rapid expansion of renewable energy sources is expected to

60、meet all additional electricity demand,though the weather and the extent to which the countrys demand growth eases remain key sources of uncertainty for the outlook.The strong expansion in renewable power capacity must also be accompanied by accelerated investment in grids and system flexibility to

61、ensure its smooth integration.The rapid growth of renewables,supported by rising nuclear generation,is set to displace global coal-fired generation,which is forecast to fall by an average of 1.7%annually through 2026.This follows a 1.6%increase in coal-fired output in 2023 amid droughts in India and

62、 China that reduced hydropower output and increased coal-fired generation,more than offsetting strong declines in coal-fired generation in the United States and the European Union.The major factor that will determine the global outlook is evolving trends in China,where more than half of worlds coal-

63、fired generation takes place.Coal-fired generation in China is currently on course to experience a slow structural decline,driven by the strong expansion of renewables and growing nuclear generation,as well as moderating economic growth.Despite the commissioning of new plants to boost the security o

64、f energy supply,the utilisation rate of Chinese coal-fired plants is expected to continue to fall as they are used more flexibly to complement renewables.Nevertheless,coal-fired generation in China will be influenced significantly by the pace of the economys rebalancing,hydropower trends,and bottlen

65、ecks in integrating renewables into the countrys power system.Electricity 2024 Executive summary Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|12 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Natural gas-fired generation is expected to rise slightly over the outlook period.In 2023,sharp declines in gas-fired power generation in the European

66、 Union were more than offset by massive gains in the United States,where natural gas,which has increasingly replaced coal,recorded its highest-ever share in power generation.Global gas-fired output grew by less than 1%in 2023.Through 2026,we forecast an average annual growth rate of around 1%.While

67、gas-fired output in Europe is expected to continue declining,global growth will be supported by significant gains in Asia,the Middle East and Africa amid rising demand for power in these regions and the availability of additional liquefied natural gas(LNG)supply from 2025 onward.Nuclear power genera

68、tion is on track to reach a new record high by 2025 By 2025,global nuclear generation is forecast to exceed its previous record set in 2021.Even as some countries phase out nuclear power or retire plants early,nuclear generation is forecast to grow by close to 3%per year on average through 2026 as m

69、aintenance works are completed within France,Japan restarts nuclear production at several power plants,and new reactors begin commercial operations in various markets,including China,India,Korea,and Europe.Many countries are making nuclear power a critical part of their energy strategies as they loo

70、k to safeguard energy security while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.At the COP28 climate change conference that concluded in December 2023,more than 20 countries signed a joint declaration to triple nuclear power capacity by 2050.Achieving this goal will require tackling the key challenge of redu

71、cing construction and financing risks in the nuclear sector.Momentum is also growing behind small modular reactor(SMR)technology.The technologys development and deployment remains modest and is not without its difficulties,but R&D is starting to pick up.Asia remains the main driver of growth in nucl

72、ear power,with the regions share of global nuclear generation forecast to reach 30%in 2026.Asia is set to surpass North America as the region with the largest installed nuclear capacity by the end of 2026,with a large number of plants currently under construction expected to be completed by then.Mor

73、e than half of new reactors expected to become operational during the outlook period are in China and India.Nuclear power has seen particularly strong growth in China over the past decade,with capacity additions of about 37 gigawatts(GW),equivalent to almost two-thirds of its current nuclear capacit

74、y.This resulted in Chinas share in global nuclear generation rising from 5%in 2014 to about 16%in 2023.China started the commercial operation of its first fourth-generation reactor in December 2023,further underscoring the countrys nuclear power advances.Electricity 2024 Executive summary Analysis a

75、nd forecast to 2026 PAGE|13 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Emissions from electricity generation are entering structural decline as decarbonisation gathers pace Global CO2 emissions from electricity generation are expected to fall by more than 2%in 2024 after increasing by 1%in 2023.This is set to be followed by sm

76、all declines in 2025 and 2026.The strong growth in coal-fired power generation in 2023 especially in China and India amid reduced hydropower output was responsible for the rise in the global electricity sectors CO2 emissions.As clean electricity supply continues to expand rapidly,the share of fossil

77、 fuels in global generation is forecast to decline from 61%in 2023 to 54%in 2026,falling below 60%for the first time in IEA records dating back to 1971.While extreme weather conditions,economic shocks,or changes in government policies could lead to a temporary rise in emissions in individual years,t

78、he broader decline in power sector emissions is expected to persist as renewables and nuclear power capacity continue to expand and displace fossil-fired generation.The CO2 intensity of global electricity generation is set to fall at twice the rate recorded in the pre-pandemic period.The forecasted

79、average decline of 4%in CO2 intensity between 2023 and 2026 is double the 2%observed in the period between 2015 and 2019.The European Union is expected to record the highest rate of progress in reducing emissions intensity,averaging an improvement of 13%per year.This is followed by China,with annual

80、 improvements forecast at 6%,and the United States at 5%.The decline in the CO2 intensity of electricity generation means that emissions savings via the electrification of transport,heating and industry will become even more substantial.Wholesale electricity prices remain above pre-Covid levels in m

81、any countries Wholesale electricity prices in many countries fell in 2023 from the record highs observed in 2022.This took place in tandem with declines in prices for energy commodities such as natural gas and coal.There are,however,regional differences.Wholesale electricity prices in Europe decline

82、d on average by more than 50%in 2023 from record levels in 2022.Despite this,prices in Europe were still roughly double 2019 levels,whereas US prices in 2023 were only about 15%higher than in 2019.Uncertainty about both the pace of Frances nuclear recovery and natural gas prices are supporting highe

83、r futures prices in Europe for upcoming winters.The hydropower-dominated Nordics remain the only market in Europe with average wholesale electricity prices comparable to those in the United States and Australia.Wholesale prices in Japan and India also remained above 2019 levels in 2023.Electricity 2

84、024 Executive summary Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|14 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Growing weather impacts on power systems highlight the importance of investing in electricity security Global hydropower generation declined in 2023 due to weather impacts such as droughts,below average rainfall and early sno

85、wmelts in numerous regions.Canada,China,Colombia,Costa Rica,India,Mexico,Trkiye,the United States,and Vietnam,along with other countries,all saw hydropower generation decline.The global hydropower capacity factor,a key measure of utilisation rate,fell to below 40%,the lowest value recorded in at lea

86、st three decades.In certain countries,diminished hydropower output led to energy shortages,heightened reliance on fossil sources such as coal and gas,and raised concerns about the stability of electricity supply.The overall trend underscores the susceptibility of hydropower to weather patterns and t

87、he potential exposure of countries that rely heavily on hydro to generate electricity.Diversifying energy sources,building regional power interconnections and implementing strategies for resilient generation in the face of changing weather patterns will be increasingly important.Extreme weather even

88、ts triggered major power outages in 2023 in the United States and India.This underlined the need to boost resilience as weather impacts on power systems increase,with both supply and demand becoming more weather-dependent.Insufficient power capacity,fuel supply challenges and grid-related technical

89、issues also continued to cause significant power shortages in many regions.The majority of these outages were observed in emerging economies such as Pakistan,Kenya and Nigeria,which are particularly affected by insufficient electricity supply,infrastructure problems and strained grids in the face of

90、 rising power demand.Expanded,stronger grids would not only ensure reliable electricity but also serve as a vital backbone for integrating renewables into power systems.Improving data collection,digitalisation and greater data transparency regarding outages is also essential to provide better insigh

91、t into why faults occurred and to help develop preventative measures.Specific operating measures and new markets for ensuring the stability of power systems are becoming more common.Countries with high shares of variable renewable generation are implementing mechanisms to ensure a steady power syste

92、m frequency.Some regions are establishing minimum requirements for system inertia,a property typically provided by conventional generators with spinning rotors that helps enhance the power systems resilience during disturbances.Additionally,various countries including the United Kingdom,Ireland and

93、Australia have been introducing markets and measures such as fast frequency response and similar services that stabilise the power system rapidly after disruptions.Battery storage systems can provide such services for grid stability while enhancing system flexibility,thus playing a crucial role in i

94、ntegrating renewable energy sources.Electricity 2024 Global trends Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|15 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Global trends Demand:Global electricity use posts strong growth to 2026 Emerging economies are the engines of global electricity demand growth Global electricity demand grew by a r

95、elatively modest 2.2%in 2023,down from 2.4%in 2022.Growth,however,is on course to accelerate to a higher 3.4%in our 2024-2026 forecast period,with emerging markets continuing to dominate growing electricity demand,as they did in 2023.The far-ranging repercussions of the energy crisis continued throu

96、ghout 2023,with elevated inflation levels,high interest rates and heavy debt burdens exerting downward pressure on economies around the world.Still,emerging market countries recorded strong growth in electricity demand.By contrast,most advanced economies posted declines amid the lacklustre macroecon

97、omic environment as well as the weak industry and manufacturing sectors,despite continued electrification.Milder weather compared to the previous year also exerted downward pressure on electricity consumption in some regions,including the United States.Year-on-year change in electricity demand by re

98、gion,2022-2026 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Advanced economies grouping in this chart excludes Mexico and Trkiye.26 70027 50028 30029 10029 90030 7002022-+2023+2026TWhChinaIndiaSoutheast AsiaRest of worldAdvanced economies85%15%Electricity 2024 Global trends Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|16 I EA.CC BY 4.

99、0.Strong growth in emerging economies combined with an anticipated recovery in industry and ongoing electrification of the residential and transportation sectors in many parts of the world will be the mainstays of increasing electricity over our outlook.An important new source of higher electricity

100、consumption is coming from energy-intensive data centres,artificial intelligence(AI)and cryptocurrencies,which could double by 2026.About 85%of the additional electricity through 2026 is set to come from outside advanced economies,mostly in Peoples Republic of China(hereafter,“China”),India and Sout

101、heast Asia.The International Monetary Fund(IMF)October 2023 outlook projects a gradual economic recovery for advanced economies,with the 2023 GDP growth rate of 1.5%followed by 1.4%in 2024 and an annual average of 1.8%in 2025-2026.By contrast,for emerging economies,the IMF projects sustained robust

102、growth of an average annual 4%,or slightly higher at 4.1%,during 2024-2026,in line with the estimated 4%in 2023.The share of electricity in final energy consumption is estimated at 20%in 2023,up from 18%in 2015.While there is progress,electrification of end uses needs to occur at a much faster pace

103、to reach decarbonisation targets.In the IEAs Net Zero by 2050 Scenario(NZE Scenario),a pathway aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5 C,the electricity share in final energy consumption nears 30%by 2030.Year-on-year percent change in electricity demand in selected regions,2019-2026 IEA.CC BY 4.

104、0.-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%202020222024202620202022202420262020202220242026202020222024202620202022202420262020202220242026WorldChinaIndiaSoutheast AsiaUnited StatesEuropean UnionHistorical demandUpdated forecastPrevious forecast(July 2023)Electricity 2024 Global trends Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAG

105、E|17 I EA.CC BY 4.0.China has the largest increase in electricity demand,while India sees the fastest growth Electricity demand reflected diverging trends in 2023,with advanced economies recording significant declines,while emerging market countries,and especially China and India,recorded strong gro

106、wth rates on rising demand for electricity spurred by economic activity.China posted growth of 6.4%in electricity demand in 2023,compared to the 3.7%year-on-year increase in 2022.Following the easing of stringent pandemic measures at end-2022,electricity demand growth accelerated from around 3%to ov

107、er 5%year-on-year by H1 2023,and continued to rise further in H2 to close the year at over 6%.While construction-related industries such as glass and cement saw a slowdown in 2023,growth in Chinese electricity consumption was driven higher by the services and various industrial sectors,including man

108、ufacturing of PV modules,electric vehicles,and the processing of associated materials.The economy has shown some signs of rebalancing and is expected to grow at a slower pace in the coming years.As a result,we forecast electricity demand growth at 5.1%in 2024,before gradually easing to 4.9%in 2025 a

109、nd 4.7%in 2026.Despite this slower pace of growth,Chinas increase in electricity demand of an estimated 1 400 TWh to 2026 is still more than 50%of current total annual electricity consumption of the European Union.Electricity consumption per capita in China already exceeded that of the European Unio

110、n at the end of 2022.However,the per capita electricity consumption of households in China is still below the average for EU households.Electricity demand in India rose by 7%in 2023 compared to last years 8.6%.Continued rapid economic expansion and robust demand for space cooling were the main pilla

111、rs of growth.After two consecutive years of strong gains,Indias electricity consumption surpassed that of Japan and Korea combined at the end of 2023.Bolstered by a fast-growing economy and powered by increased electrification,we expect Indias electricity demand to rise by an annual average of 6.5%o

112、ver the 2024-2026 period.While China provides the largest share of demand growth in terms of volume,India posts the fastest growth rate out to 2026 among major economies.Following this,India will have added additional electricity demand roughly equivalent to that of the United Kingdom over the next

113、three years.Electricity 2024 Global trends Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|18 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Total electricity demand(left),population(centre),and electricity consumption per capita(right)in China,European Union,and the United States,1990-2026 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:The figures for 2024-2026 are for

114、ecast values.Historical data and forecast for population are from World Bank(2022).Electricity demand in the United States,the worlds second largest consumer behind China,declined by 1.6%in 2023,after 2.6%growth in 2022.A major contributor to the downturn was the milder weather in 2023 compared to 2

115、022.A slowdown in the manufacturing sector was also a factor,albeit with significantly less impact than the weather.While record high summer temperatures in Texas drove up cooling demand,overall summer weather was milder in 2023 compared to last year.Similarly,winter months were also warmer,with the

116、 lowest number of heating degree days recorded since 2012.We forecast a moderate rebound in demand of 2.5%in 2024,assuming normal weather conditions,followed by an average growth rate of 1%in 2025-2026 due to continued electrification and strong growth in the data centre sector.We expect more than o

117、ne-third of the additional US electricity demand out to 2026 to come from the expanding data centres.Electricity demand in Japan declined by 3.7%in 2023 compared to a 1%increase in 2022.Despite high temperatures boosting cooling demand in the summer,the slowdown in the manufacturing sector and conti

118、nued energy saving measures exerted strong downwards pressure on electricity consumption.However,against a backdrop of an assumed gradual recovery in the manufacturing sector in 2024 and accelerating electrification of the transport and heating sectors over the outlook period,a modest rebound in ele

119、ctricity demand of 1.2%in 2024 is forecast,followed by an average annual growth rate of 0.2%in 2025-2026.In the European Union,following a 3.1%decline in 2022,electricity demand fell by a further 3.2%in 2023.We anticipate a return to growth in 2024 of 1.8%,assuming a partial recovery in the industry

120、 sector given more moderate energy prices and expanding electrification of the transportation and heating sectors.EU electricity demand is forecast to grow on average by 2.5%annually during the 02 0004 0006 0008 00010 00012 0001990199419982002200620102014201820222026TWhChinaEuropean UnionUnited Stat

121、es02 5005 0007 50010 00012 50015 0001990199419982002200620102014201820222026kWh per capita0 250 500 7501 0001 2501 5001990199419982002200620102014201820222026Million peopleElectricity 2024 Global trends Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|19 I EA.CC BY 4.0.2025-2026 period,supported by an improved ec

122、onomic outlook.Nevertheless,following the record demand contraction in the European Union last year,uncertainties surround over how much of this decline is temporary and how much is structural.Southeast Asia and India make strides in per capita electricity use,but Africa lags behind In 1990,the aver

123、age electricity consumption per person in Africa exceeded that of Southeast Asia by 40%and India by 65%.However,recent decades have witnessed a significant surge in electricity demand and supply in India and Southeast Asia,accompanied by rapid economic development and prosperity in these regions.Sou

124、theast Asia overtook Africa in per capita electricity consumption in 1995,and India achieved the same in 2008.Conversely,Africas per capita electricity consumption has remained stagnant for more than three decades,with 2023 figures revealing it to be half that of India and 70%lower than in Southeast

125、 Asia.The 2023 per capita electricity consumption on the African continent is estimated at 530 kWh,while sub-Saharan Africa excluding South Africa averaged around 190 kWh.We expect per capita electricity consumption in Africa to recover to its 2010-2015 levels by the end of 2026 at the earliest.Tota

126、l electricity demand(left),population(centre),and electricity consumption per capita(right)in Africa,Southeast Asia,and India,1990-2026 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:The figures for 2024-2026 are forecast values.Historical data and forecast for population are from World Bank(2022).Africas population is set to

127、 grow rapidly,making up one-fifth of the worlds population by 2030.This highlights the massive potential and need for additional electricity supply in this region.Our forecast for Africa for the period 2024-2026 anticipates an average annual growth in total electricity demand of 4%,more than double

128、the mean growth rate observed over 2015-2023.Around 60%of this 0 400 8001 2001 6002 0001990199419982002200620102014201820222026TWhAfricaSoutheast AsiaIndia0 5001 0001 5002 0002 5001990199419982002200620102014201820222026kWh per capita0 400 8001 2001 6002 0001990199419982002200620102014201820222026Mi

129、llion peopleElectricity 2024 Global trends Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|20 I EA.CC BY 4.0.growth in demand is to be met by expanding renewables,the remaining mostly by natural gas.Renewable generation in Africa has grown on average by 5%in 2015-2023.We forecast an average of 10%growth in renew

130、able generation out to 2026 in Africa,as deployment of renewables gathers pace.Nevertheless,In order to achieve the regions energy development and climate targets,energy investments will have to more than double from todays USD 90 billion by 2030,with almost two-thirds of this spending going towards

131、 clean energy.As of 2023,600 million people,or more than 40%of the African population lacked access to electricity,mostly in sub-Saharan Africa.A common solution to electricity access in Africa has been off-grid gasoline or diesel generators as they present low upfront costs in contrast to the cost

132、of connection to the grid.However,their operating costs have significantly increased,especially since 2021 after oil prices soared.Additionally,since 2015 the adoption of decentralised modular solar home systems(SHS)has steadily increased.Countries like Ghana and Kenya increased their SHS capacity b

133、y more than twenty times from 2015 to 2019.SHS providers have enabled the system implementation through financial incentives such as a pay-as-you-go business model.Spotlight:Navigating the uncertainties in the recovery of EU electricity demand With consecutive declines of historic proportions in 202

134、2(-3.1%)and 2023(-3.2%),electricity demand in the European Union has fallen to levels last seen two decades ago,predominantly due to lower consumption in the industrial sector amid the economic malaise.Our analysis shows that with a gradual recovery in the industrial sector,EU electricity demand wou

135、ld return to 2021 levels by 2026 at the earliest,with an average annual growth rate of 2.3%.The IMF October 2023 outlook projects GDP growth of the euro area for 2024 at 1.2%,indicating a slight recovery from the substantial slowdown in 2023 at 0.7%GDP growth that followed a robust 3.3%in 2022.Accor

136、dingly,the EU economy is expected to grow faster over 2025-2026,with an average annual growth rate of around 1.8%.In addition to the gradual recovery in economic growth,strong drivers of electricity demand in the period to 2026 will come from electric vehicles,heat pumps and data centres,which combi

137、ned are expected to account for half of the total demand gains.An estimated total of 9 million new battery electric vehicles and 11 million new heat pumps are expected to become operational by 2026 in the European Union,which will account for a large share of this stronger growth.Moreover,we forecas

138、t that electricity consumption from data centres in the European Union in 2026 will be 30%higher than 2023 levels,as new data facilities are commissioned amid increased digitalisation and AI computations.Ireland and Denmark alone make up 20%of the expected increase in data centre electricity demand

139、to 2026.Electricity 2024 Global trends Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|21 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Estimated drivers of change in electricity demand in the European Union,2021-2026 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:Other includes the combined effect of changes in electricity demand in households,services and other secto

140、rs,including increases from EVs,heat pumps and data centres in 2022 and 2023.For 2024-2026 these are shown separately.In 2022,the net impact of weather on demand is estimated to have been a reduction of 13 TWh.In 2023,net weather impact is estimated to have accounted for a reduction of 7 TWh.Industr

141、y was the main factor behind the decline in EU electricity demand in 2022 and 2023 Despite energy prices falling from their previous record highs,EU electricity demand further declined in 2023.Lower industrial electricity demand was the most important factor,as in the previous year.Following a 5.8%d

142、ecline in 2022,we estimate electricity consumption in the EU industrial sector fell 6%year-on-year in 2023,with energy-intensive industries the hardest hit.Despite regional variations,the average European wholesale electricity price in 2023 was still more than double the 2019 level(see the Prices ch

143、apter for more analysis).This,combined with slower economic growth,lower consumer demand,weaker exports and the overhang of stocks from 2021 and 2022,depressed EU industrial electricity demand further.The impact of milder weather on electricity consumption also weighed on demand,although to a much m

144、ore limited extent.Overall,winter temperatures were higher and summer temperatures were lower compared to 2022,resulting in less space heating and cooling.About 0.3 percentage points of the 3.2%decline in EU electricity demand is attributable to weather,which means that the year-on-year decline woul

145、d have been 2.9%without the influence of weather.The six-month moving average for the EU wholesale electricity price was almost 45%lower in the second half of 2023 compared to the first half,stabilising around -55-56+72+37+19+29-25-22+122 3502 4002 4502 5002 5502 6002021Demanddecline2022Demanddeclin

146、e20232023Demandrecovery2024-262026TWhIndustryElectric vehiclesHeat pumpsData centresOther2 551 2 5612 393 Electricity 2024 Global trends Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|22 I EA.CC BY 4.0.EUR 100/MWh in the fourth quarter.Similarly,the year-on-year fall in total electricity demand stopped from Sep

147、tember onward and recovered slightly in November and December,after declines compared to 2022 had been recorded in every month up to that point.Monthly EU electricity demand,2021-2023(left),and average wholesale electricity prices in the European Union and the United States,2019-2023(right),IEA.CC B

148、Y 4.0.Notes:In the chart on the left,2022 and 2023 demand is weather-corrected to the base year of 2021.This means what demand would have been in 2022 and 2023 if the weather was the same as in 2021.The 2021 demand profile corresponds to the realised net demand.In the chart on the right,the plotted

149、average wholesale prices are 6-month moving averages(6MMA).Source:IEA analysis based on data from Eurostat(2023)and EIA(2023).Assuming energy prices remain relatively moderate and the economic outlook improves over the forecast period,we expect electricity demand in the industry sector to start reco

150、vering gradually from 2024 onward.Nevertheless,some permanent electricity demand destruction has already occurred,especially in energy-intensive chemical and primary metal industries,and there is still significant uncertainty about how much of the reductions of the last two years will be temporary o

151、r permanent.There are signs of some permanent electricity demand destruction Overall,production output and consequently the electricity demand of the energy-intensive industries such as aluminium,steel,paper and chemicals were lower in 2023 than in the previous year.Some production curtailments anno

152、unced by energy-intensive industries following the sharp climb in prices in 2022 were temporary,as various facilities restarted and ramped up operations when energy prices started falling in 2023.However,many other plants remained shut down.Restarting a closed facility is generally costly.For exampl

153、e,reopening an 180190200210220230240250JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTWh20212022 weather-corrected demand2023 weather-corrected demand050100150200250300350Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24USD/MWhEU wholesale electricity price(6MMA)US wholesale electricity price

154、(6MMA)Electricity 2024 Global trends Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|23 I EA.CC BY 4.0.aluminium smelter can cost up to EUR 400 million(USD 394 million).Hence,it is likely some of the temporary shutdowns to date will be followed by permanent closures.The chemical industry has been severely affect

155、ed from elevated energy costs,with the risks of permanent closures compounded by reduced competitiveness as China dominates growth.Producers such as Yara,Dow,INEOS,Grupa Azoty,among many others,curtailed production of chemical products such as polyethylene,ammonia,urea,nitrates and NPK(nitrogen,phos

156、phorus,and potassium)fertilisers.Large chemical producers such as BASF shut down plants in part due to high energy costs.This included the closure of caprolactam,ammonia,cyclohexanol,cyclohexanone,soda ash,toluene diisocyanate and precursor plants at its Ludwigshafen site,as well as fertiliser facil

157、ities.The site has an annual electricity consumption of around 6 TWh,and has plans to reduce their emissions by 5%.Assuming a similar 5%reduction in energy consumption,this amounts to 0.3 TWh of permanent electricity demand reductions.Estimated year-on-year changes in industrial output and electrici

158、ty consumption in selected industries in the European Union in 2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:IEA analysis based on data from Eurostat,Worldsteel,International Aluminium Institute and CEFIC.The European primary metal industry was hit especially hard by soaring electricity prices due to the energy-intensi

159、ve nature of the production process.For primary aluminium,for example,electricity costs generally make up about 40%of the cost of production.Considering the ongoing curtailments and announced shutdowns until end of 2023,our analysis shows the loss in EU annual electricity demand,cumulating the closu

160、res since 2020,to be about 23 TWh in the considered primary metal industries of aluminium,zinc,steel,and silicon.-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%-20-15-10-505101520TWhChange in electricity consumption(left axis)Percent change in industrial output(right axis)Electricity 2024 Global trends Analysis and fo

161、recast to 2026 PAGE|24 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Estimated cumulative loss in annual electricity demand in selected primary metal industries in the European Union compared to 2020 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:Estimates are based on announcements of permanent and indefinite plant closures,and production curtailments.The

162、 numbers are to be interpreted as the structural demand destruction due to production losses compared to the reference period 2020.Realised changes of demand in the year of closure can differ due to the exact timing of the closure within that year.Silicon electricity demand considers silicon metals,

163、silicon manganese,polysilicon and silicon-based alloys.Source:IEA analysis of company data,national statistics and news reports.Around 30%of EU primary aluminium production capacity has been suspended since 2021,with the curtailments and closures adding up to a loss of about 1.1 Mt of annual product

164、ion capacity by the end of 2023.This corresponds to an estimated loss of about 15 TWh of annual electricity demand.In 2023,several companies followed the temporary cuts in production with shutdowns.The temporary curtailment of Slovakias Slovalco turned into a permanent shutdown in 2023.Germanys Spei

165、ra,having halved its production in 2022,and announced in 2023 that it will stop production at its Rheinwerk(Germany)smelter.Similarly,Slovenias Talum announced in 2023 that it will halt primary aluminium production,after having reduced output to 20%of capacity in 2022.Various other producers of prim

166、ary aluminium such as Alcoa,Aldel,Alro,and Trimet also cut production.Some producers also restarted production or are planning to do so.Liberty Aluminium ramped up the production of primary aluminium to full capacity in their Dunkirk(France)plant in early 2023,after cutting it by 20%in 2022.Alcoa an

167、nounced that it will restart operations in 2024 after shutting down its primary aluminium production in San Ciprian(Spain)at the end of 2021 due to high energy costs.An agreement was reached to restart production through a long-term wind power purchase agreement(PPA)that powers 75%of its production

168、capacity.There is also an observable trend in Europe towards shifting operations to recycled aluminium production,which is less energy-intensive.In April 2023,Speira completed the acquisition of Real Alloy Europe,which was announced in 04812162024202120222023TWhPrimary AluminiumZincCrude SteelSilico

169、nElectricity 2024 Global trends Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|25 I EA.CC BY 4.0.February 2022,doubling its aluminium recycling capacity with the addition of 350 kt.Romanias Alro extended its aluminium recycling capacity following the commissioning of its new recycling facility with an annual ca

170、pacity of 60 kt in September 2023.Three zinc smelting factories shut down in Germany,Italy and the Netherlands,equivalent to 580 kt of production capacity,and two in Belgium and France reduced production by 50%each.These reductions in zinc production correspond to an estimated yearly electricity dem

171、and loss of almost 4 TWh.Shutdowns and production reductions in silicon and silicon-based alloys from the plants of Ferroglobe in Spain and France are estimated to similarly account for a loss of annual electricity demand of almost 2 TWh.The steel sector lost almost 4 Mt of capacity,equivalent to an

172、 estimated 2 TWh of electricity demand,with Lech steelworks shutting down completely in Germany and ArcelorMittals blast furnaces in France idling.Amid elevated energy costs,flexible operation is becoming increasingly more important for energy-intensive industries.ArcelorMittal reacted to the rise i

173、n electricity costs by taking advantage of the flexibility of their system;stopping during an electricity price peak and resuming after the peak had passed.Other producers such as Salzgitter chose to continue operations at its steel plant in Peine using the flexibility of their facilities to shift p

174、roduction to lower cost hours,thereby partially mitigating the adverse effects of the increased energy costs.High energy prices also pose a challenge for small and medium-sized companies Many large energy-intensive industries across the European Union are often exempted from various taxes and fees r

175、elated to electricity and are also partially compensated for the indirect costs resulting from the EU Emissions Trading System(EU-ETS).By contrast,small and medium-sized industries generally face higher electricity prices.A survey in Germany showed that during the peak of the crisis in 2022,many med

176、ium-sized companies reported high energy costs as an existential challenge.The rate at which industrial companies in the European Union are declaring bankruptcy showed an increasing trend in 2023.While new industry-related business registrations have posted steady growth over the period Q1 2022-Q2 2

177、023,averaging 4.4%per quarter,the number of industrial businesses declaring bankruptcy increased at an even higher rate of 10%over the same period.High energy costs for small and medium-sized companies are particularly problematic if they are also facing international competition,as relatively highe

178、r EU energy costs decrease their competitiveness.A survey conducted in 2023 by the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce found that one-third of the Electricity 2024 Global trends Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|26 I EA.CC BY 4.0.countrys companies that were considering investing abroad cited c

179、oncerns about high energy cost as a disadvantage.For example,the manufacturer of traditional Christmas sweets Lambertz is considering withdrawing its production operations in Germany,stating that its international customers are reportedly unable to accept the rising prices.The glass manufacturer Hei

180、nz-Glass,which supplies bottles for the international perfume industry,has recently indefinitely postponed its plans to increase production capacities,citing concerns over high energy cost in the future.Outside the energy-intensive sectors,some smaller businesses were also strongly hit by soaring en

181、ergy bills,often without the financial buffer that large companies tend to have.Particularly affected,for example,are bakeries,where businesses scrambled to adjust operations for energy saving or decided to file for insolvency under the pressure of rising electricity prices.Many countries,such as Fr

182、ance,Germany,Poland and Spain,introduced measures to dampen the negative effect on local businesses.On a European level,emergency interventions included a revenue cap of inframarginal producers at EUR 180/MWh and redistribution of excess profits in the oil,gas,coal and refinery sectors.European meta

183、l and chemical industries are likely to remain vulnerable to energy price shocks The degree of vulnerability in energy-intensive commodity industries from increasing energy prices varies significantly.While some industries can tolerate elevated energy costs,other sectors are more dependent on cheap

184、energy inputs.Our analysis shows that chemicals,steel,and aluminium are more exposed to increasing energy cost.Despite energy prices stabilising in 2023,the metal and chemical industries remain vulnerable,with margins expected to stay at low levels until 2025.While other industries may have a more p

185、ositive outlook,increasing uncertainty and expectations about future price increases may still negatively impact business conditions for industry in Europe.Electricity 2024 Global trends Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|27 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Estimated quarterly net value added of selected industries i

186、n Germany,2021-2025 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:Chemical feedstock includes basic organic and inorganic chemicals,fertilisers and nitrogen products,primary rubber and plastics,industrial gases,and pigments and colourings.The analysis uses data on German firms from 2019 to calculate the initial profit margin

187、s,aggregated by sector.These are extrapolated using EUROSTAT indices for production volume and producer price indices on a sectoral level.Assuming a constant energy intensity of production over time,historical and futures price data on energy carriers are used to simulate the margins over time.Consi

188、dering the pass-through of cost in the future,futures prices of the produced commodity are used when available(i.e.for steel and aluminium).The analysis also excludes ex-post compensation payments,subsidies or any other government interventions.Prices are calculated using a 3-month moving average.So

189、urce:IEA analysis based on data from Eurostat and Destatis.How much electricity does the European Union import in the form of energy-intensive goods?The issue of reduced production of energy-intensive goods in the European Union amid high energy prices has contributed to an increase in imports in th

190、ese sectors,which was particularly observable in 2022.This raises the question of how much electricity is not consumed in the European Union but is shifted to other regions and imported from there indirectly in the form of energy-intensive goods.Our analysis shows that over 160 TWh of electricity co

191、rresponding to 6%of EU electricity demand was indirectly imported in 2022 into the European Union in the form of energy-intensive goods made up by chemicals,primary aluminium,crude steel,paper pulp,and cement.After an estimated 8%year-on-year increase in 2022,2023 is expected to record a decline of

192、4%in indirect imports of electricity in the form of the energy-intensive goods,which can be attributed to the slowdown in EU manufacturing,weaker demand and overhang of inventories.Nevertheless,2023 imports are still estimated to be 4%higher than the 2021 levels.This means that,in the years 2022 and

193、 2023 combined,an additional 18 TWh of electricity was imported compared to 2021 levels in the form of energy-intensive goods considered in our analysis,mostly due to higher primary aluminium imports.-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q420212022202320242025Glass and glas

194、swareCement,lime and gypsumPig iron,steel and ferroalloysAluminiumPaper and cardboard-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q320212022202320242025Chemical feedstockElectricity 2024 Global trends Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|28 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Indirect electricity imports in t

195、he form of energy-intensive goods(chemicals,primary aluminium,crude steel,paper pulp,and cement)to the European Union by country of origin,2019-2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:The indirect electricity imports of selected energy-intensive goods include chemicals,primary aluminium,crude steel,paper pulp and

196、cement.Indirect electricity imports in the form of energy-intensive goods are estimated as the electricity required to manufacture the imported product in the European Union based on the electricity intensity of production values in the European Union.The 2023 values are estimated based on Q1-Q3 202

197、3 data and analysis of latest market trends.Source:IEA analysis based on data from EU trade since 1999 by SITC and Eurostat(2023).The largest cumulative increases in energy-intensive imports since 2021 have been in primary aluminium.In 2022 and 2023 combined,there was an additional 20 TWh of indirec

198、t electricity imports,compared to 2021 levels.Around half of this came from higher imports from India,which was followed by United Arab Emirates.Chemicals was another sector which saw growth in imports in 2022,with about 2 TWh more indirect electricity imported compared to 2021,mainly from the Unite

199、d States and China.But the imports of chemicals declined in 2023 amid slower economic activity,more than offsetting this increase.Pulp and cement imports similarly saw increases in 2022,but were more than offset by significant declines in 2023.There have been also changes with respect to where these

200、 energy-intensive products came from.For example,in order to substitute the loss of crude steel imports from Ukraine following the Russian invasion,imports from China,Brazil,India,and other countries increased in 2022.Sanction-hit Russia has seen a sharp drop in exports to the European Union in the

201、energy-intensive industries.The share of Russia in the indirect electricity imports from these energy-intensive goods is estimated to have decreased from 18%in 2019 and 14%in 2021,to 9%in 2023.As sanctions entered into force gradually over the course of 2023,Russia was still one of the largest sourc

202、es of 030609012015018020192020202120222023TWhRussiaUkraineBrazilUnited StatesChinaIndiaOther EuropeRest of worldElectricity 2024 Global trends Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|29 I EA.CC BY 4.0.indirect electricity imports to the European Union in the form of energy-intensive goods in 2023,largely

203、 due to substantial amounts of steel imports,followed by primary aluminium and chemicals.Estimated indirect electricity imports in the form of energy-intensive goods to the European Union by sector and country of origin,2022 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Indirect electricity imports in the form of energy-inten

204、sive goods are calculated as the electricity required to manufacture the imported product in the European Union,based on the electricity intensity of EU production values.Source:IEA analysis based on data from Eurostat(2023),EU trade since 1999 by SITC.Russias share in the imports of these energy-in

205、tensive goods is expected to decrease further in the future,as sanctions are rigorously applied.However,other products such as primary aluminium are currently not sanctioned.Even though there are sanctions on individual aluminium products,primary aluminium remains unsanctioned since it is considered

206、 a strategic raw material by the European Union.Additionally,Russian aluminium is still strongly integrated within European supply chains.However,there have been calls within Europes aluminium industry group to lobby for EU sanctions on Russian aluminium.EU sanctions on Russia related to energy-inte

207、nsive goods Sector Date of adoption Sanction Steel 15 March 2022 The European Union adopted Council Regulation(EU)2022/428 imposing an import ban on iron and steel products originating from Russia(flat-rolled products,bars,rods,wire,tubes,pipes etc.)23 June 2023 As part of the eleventh EU sanctions

208、package,importers of iron and steel must prove that inputs used in their goods have not originated in Russia.However,these sanctions are implemented in phases coming into force in September 2023.0 5 10 15 20 25 30TWhChemicalsPrimary aluminiumCrude steelPaper pulpCement0 10 20 30 40 50 60Rest ofworld

209、TWhElectricity 2024 Global trends Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|30 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Sector Date of adoption Sanction Cement 8 April 2022 Imports of cement from Russia are banned as part of a fifth set of economic and individual sanctions Paper pulp 6 October 2022 Plastics,paper and wood pulp impo

210、rts from Russia are banned as part of an eighth set of economic and individual sanctions.Chemicals 6 October 2022 Imports of chemical products such as basic petrochemicals,inorganic chemicals,intermediates,plastics,fertilisers and specialties are now banned.These include methanol,phosphates,potash,N

211、PK,nitrates,hydrochloric acid,nitric acid,phosphoric acid,sulfuric acid and others.Aluminium 8 April 2022 Imports of flat-rolled aluminium products above 0.2 mm such as plates,sheets or strip from Russia are banned as part of the fifth set of sanctions.18 December 2023 As part of the twelfth EU sanc

212、tions package,imports of aluminium wires,foil,tubes and pipes from Russia were banned.Carbon policy and EU energy-intensive industries Next to overall competitiveness influenced by energy prices,EU carbon policy will additionally play a large role in determining the future of the energy-intensive in

213、dustries in Europe.Relying to a large extent on price-based policies,the EU-ETS will soon be accompanied by a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM)at the centre of its climate policy.Allowance prices have been rising over the last few years,exceeding EUR 100/t CO2 in February 2023 for the first t

214、ime,before falling and averaging about EUR 85/t CO2 in the second half of the year.In addition,progressing decarbonisation will ease the burden accordingly as companies invest in reducing the carbon intensity of production.Other countries outside the European Union have significantly lower carbon pr

215、ices and/or rely on subsidy-based programmes(such as the United States with the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022),or have no effective policies targeting CO2 emissions.Additionally,the European Union uses a range of measures to counter potential negative effects on the competitiveness and carbon leak

216、age of industry.After providing free allowances to energy-intensive industries in the first years of the EU-ETS,the CBAM will be phased in,pricing embedded carbon on EU imports for key sectors,including cement,aluminium,steel and fertilisers.This can aid competitiveness in the domestic market and sh

217、ield against import pressure.However,EU firms largely relying on exports will still need to compete in international markets,where other firms might face less stringent carbon pricing policies.Partially addressing this,electricity compensation schemes allow member states to provide state aid for a l

218、imited time up until 2030,to offset increases in electricity cost associated with the EU-ETS(see the Prices chapter for more details.)Electricity 2024 Global trends Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|31 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Global electricity demand from data centres could double towards 2026 We estimate

219、that data centres,cryptocurrencies,and artificial intelligence(AI)consumed about 460 TWh of electricity worldwide in 2022,almost 2%of total global electricity demand.Data centres are a critical part of the infrastructure that supports digitalisation along with the electricity infrastructure that pow

220、ers them.The ever-growing quantity of digital data requires an expansion and evolution of data centres to process and store it.Electricity demand in data centres is mainly from two processes,with computing accounting for 40%of electricity demand of a data centre.Cooling requirements to achieve stabl

221、e processing efficiency similarly makes up about another 40%.The remaining 20%comes from other associated IT equipment.Future trends of the data centre sector are complex to navigate,as technological advancements and digital services evolve rapidly.Depending on the pace of deployment,range of effici

222、ency improvements as well as artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency trends,we expect global electricity consumption of data centres,cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence to range between 620-1 050 TWh in 2026,with our base case for demand at just over 800 TWh up from 460 TWh in 2022.This

223、corresponds to an additional 160 TWh up to 590 TWh of electricity demand in 2026 compared to 2022,roughly equivalent to adding at least one Sweden or at most one Germany.Global electricity demand from data centres,AI,and cryptocurrencies,2019-2026 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:Includes traditional data centre

224、s,dedicated AI data centres,and cryptocurrency consumption;excludes demand from data transmission networks.The base case scenario has been used in the overall forecast in this report.Low and high case scenarios reflect the uncertainties in the pace of deployment and efficiency gains amid future tech

225、nological developments.Sources:Joule(2023),de Vries,The growing energy footprint of AI;CCRI Indices(carbon-);The Guardian,Use of AI to reduce data centre energy use;Motors in data centres;The Royal Society,The future of computing beyond Moores Law;Ireland Central Statistics Office,Data Centres elect

226、ricity consumption 2022;and Danish Energy Agency,Denmarks energy and climate outlook 2018.0 200 400 600 8001 0001 20020192020202120222023202420252026TWhLow caseBase caseHigh caseElectricity 2024 Global trends Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|32 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Data centres are significant drivers o

227、f electricity demand growth in many regions There are currently more than 8 000 data centres globally,with about 33%of these located in the United States,16%in Europe and close to 10%in China.US data centre electricity consumption is expected to grow at a rapid pace in the coming years,increasing fr

228、om around 200 TWh in 2022(4%of US electricity demand),to almost 260 TWh in 2026 to account for 6%of total electricity demand.Growth will be driven by increased adoption of 5G networks and cloud-based services,as well as competitive state tax incentives.Chinas State Grid Energy Research Institute exp

229、ects electricity demand in the countrys data centre sector to double to 400 TWh by 2030,compared to 2020.We forecast electricity consumption from data centres in China to reach around 300 TWh by 2026.Regulations are being updated to promote sustainable practices in current and future data centres to

230、 align them with decarbonisation strategies.A major source of data centre growth is expected to come from the rapid expansion of 5G networks and the Internet of Things(IoT).In the European Union,data centre electricity consumption is estimated at slightly below 100 TWh in 2022,almost 4%of total EU e

231、lectricity demand.Around 1 240 data centres were operating within Europe in 2022,with the majority concentrated in the financial centres of Frankfurt,London,Amsterdam,Paris,and Dublin.With a significant number of additional data centres planned,as well as new deployments that can be expected to be r

232、ealised over the coming years,we forecast that electricity consumption in the data centre sector in the European Union will reach almost 150 TWh by 2026.Almost one-third of electricity demand in Ireland could come from data centres by 2026 In Europe,the data centre market in Ireland is developing ra

233、pidly as their electricity consumption grows along with new policies and initiatives.Electricity demand from data centres in Ireland was 5.3 TWh in 2022,representing 17%of the countrys total electricity consumed.That is equivalent to the amount of electricity consumed by urban residential buildings.

234、At this pace,in a high case scenario,Irelands data centres might double their electricity consumption by 2026,and with AI applications penetrating the market at a fast rate,the sector could reach a share of 32%of the countrys total electricity demand in 2026 if most of the approved projects are able

235、 to be connected to the system.This assumes that at the same time efficiency gains in other sectors continue to take place.Irelands stock of data centres,currently at 82,is expected to grow by 65%in the coming years,with 14 data centres under construction and 40 approved to start Electricity 2024 Gl

236、obal trends Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|33 I EA.CC BY 4.0.the building phase.Ireland has one of the lowest corporate tax rates in the European Union(12.5%),which is an advantage for the sectors expansion in the country.By contrast,European OECD countries average corporate tax rate is 21.5%.Th

237、e rapid expansion of the data centre sector and the elevated electricity demand can pose challenges for the electricity system.To safeguard the systems stability and reliability,Irelands Commission for Regulation of Utilities published in late 2021 its decision on the new requirements applicable to

238、new and ongoing data centre grid connection applications with three assessment criteria to determine if the connection offer can be made.First,the location of the data centre with respect to whether they are within a constrained region of the electricity system.Second,the ability of the data centre

239、to bring onsite dispatchable generation and/or storage equivalent,at least,to their demand.Third,the ability of the data centre to provide flexibility in their demand by reducing it when requested by a system operator.For the third clause,data centre operators that offer their servers for hire will

240、have to update their contracts to reflect the new regulations.These requirements showcase the local governments inclination to grant connections to those operators that can make efficient use of the grid and incorporate renewable energy sources with a view of decarbonisation targets.Estimated data c

241、entre electricity consumption and its share in total electricity demand in selected regions in 2022 and 2026 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Sources:IEA,Data Centres and Data Transmission Networks;Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory,United Stated Data Center Energy Usage Report;Ireland Central Statistics Office,Dat

242、a Centres Metered Electricity Consumption 2022;Danish Energy Agency,Denmarks Energy and Climate Outlook 2018;Chinas State Council,Green data centres in focus;European Commission,Energy-efficient Cloud Computing Technologies and Policies for an Eco-friendly Cloud Market;Joule(2023),Alex de Vries,The

243、growing energy footprint of artificial intelligence;and Crypto Carbon Ratings Institute,Indices.0%1%2%3%4%5%6%0 55 110 165 220 275 330United StatesEuropeanUnionChinaTWh20222026Share in total demand(right axis)0%7%14%21%28%35%42%0 3 6 9 12 15 18DenmarkIrelandTWhElectricity 2024 Global trends Analysis

244、 and forecast to 2026 PAGE|34 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Denmark currently hosts 34 data centres,half of them located in Copenhagen.As in Ireland,Denmarks total electricity demand is forecast to grow mainly due to the data centre sectors expansion,which is expected to consume 6 TWh by 2026,reaching just under 2

245、0%of the countrys electricity demand.Denmark is the hub for a new pan-European initiative,Net Zero Innovation Hub for Data Centers.The hub offers a space for collaboration between suppliers,operators and governments to enable progress towards the sectors innovation and decarbonisation while meeting

246、increasing regulatory demands.Data centres in Nordic countries such as Sweden,Norway,and Finland benefit from lower electricity costs.This is attributed to lower cooling demand due to their colder weather,and to lower electricity prices in comparison to other major data centre hubs,such as Germany,F

247、rance and the Netherlands.The largest actor amongst Nordic countries is Sweden,with 60 data centres,and half of them in Stockholm.In August 2023,plans for a nuclear-powered data centre were announced utilising small modular reactors(SMR)technology on the east coast of Sweden,with a commissioning dat

248、e envisaged for 2030.Given decarbonisation targets,Sweden and Norway may further increase their participation in the data centre market since almost all of their electricity is generated from low-carbon sources.In the United States,the largest data centre hubs are located in California,Texas and Vir

249、ginia.In the case of Virginia,their economy was dominated in 2021 by the data centre sector expansion,attracting 62%of all of the states new investments and providing more than 5 000 new jobs.Northern Virginia is the largest data centre market in the country,collecting USD 1 billion in local tax rev

250、enues per year,with growth trending higher as companies,such as Amazons planned USD 35 billion expansion by 2040,continue to increase their investment in the state.New legislation is aimed at tightening regulations on data centre developments,including zoning rules,mandatory environment and resource

251、 impact assessments,as well as guidelines on water usage.In US northeastern states,the regional transmission organisation PJM expects data centres to increasingly drive electricity demand,forecasting a rise in summer peak load from 151 GW in 2024 to 178 GW by 2034.Artificial intelligence and cryptoc

252、urrencies are additional sources of electricity demand growth Market trends,including the fast incorporation of AI into software programming across a variety of sectors,increase the overall electricity demand of data centres.Search tools like Google could see a tenfold increase of their electricity

253、demand in the case of fully implementing AI in it.When comparing the average electricity demand of a typical Google search(0.3 Wh of electricity)to OpenAIs ChatGPT Electricity 2024 Global trends Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|35 I EA.CC BY 4.0.(2.9 Wh per request),and considering 9 billion searc

254、hes daily,this would require almost 10 TWh of additional electricity in a year.AI electricity demand can be forecast more comprehensively based on the amount of AI servers that are estimated to be sold in the future and their rated power.The AI server market is currently dominated by tech firm NVIDI

255、A,with an estimated 95%market share.In 2023,NVIDIA shipped 100 000 units that consume an average of 7.3 TWh of electricity annually.By 2026,the AI industry is expected to have grown exponentially to consume at least ten times its demand in 2023.Estimated electricity demand from traditional data cent

256、res,dedicated AI data centres and cryptocurrencies,2022 and 2026,base case IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Data centre electricity demand excludes consumption from data network centres.Sources:IEA forecast based on data and projections from Data Centres and Data Transmission Networks;Joule(2023),Alex de Vries,Th

257、e growing energy footprint of artificial intelligence;Crypto Carbon Ratings Institute,Indices;Ireland Central Statistics Office,Data Centres Metered Electricity Consumption 2022;and Danish Energy Agency,Denmarks Energy and Climate Outlook 2018.In 2022,cryptocurrencies consumed about 110 TWh of elect

258、ricity,accounting for 0.4%of the global annual electricity demand,as much as the Netherlands total electricity consumption.In our base case,we anticipate that the electricity consumption of cryptocurrencies will increase by more than 40%,to around 160 TWh by 2026.Nevertheless,uncertainties remain fo

259、r the pace of acceleration in cryptocurrency adoption and technology efficiency improvements.Ethereum,the second largest cryptocurrency by market cap,reduced its electricity demand by an amazing 99%in 2022 by changing its mining mechanism.By contrast,Bitcoin is estimated to have consumed 120 TWh by

260、2023,contributing to a total cryptocurrency electricity demand of 130 TWh.Challenges in reducing electricity consumption remain,as energy savings can be offset by increases in other energy 0 200 400 600 8001 00020222026TWhTraditional data centresCryptocurrenciesDedicated AI data centresElectricity 2

261、024 Global trends Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|36 I EA.CC BY 4.0.consuming operations,such as other cryptocurrencies,even as some become more efficient.Efficiency improvements and regulations will be crucial in restraining data centre energy consumption The revised Energy Efficiency Directive

262、from the European Commission includes regulations applicable to the European data centre sector,promoting more transparency and accountability to enhance electricity demand management.Starting from 2024,operators have mandatory reporting obligations for the energy use and emissions from their data c

263、entres,and large-scale data centres are required to have waste heat recovery applications,when technically and economically feasible,while meeting climate neutrality by 2030.An earlier EU regulation,applicable since 2020,sets efficiency standards for data centres enabling better control over their e

264、nvironmental impact.A self-regulatory European initiative created in 2021,called the Climate Neutral Data Centre Pact,sets targets to achieve climate neutrality in the sector by 2030.More than 60 data centre operators have signed on to the pact,including large operators like Equinix,Digital Realty a

265、nd Cyrus One.In the United States,the Energy Act of 2020 requires the federal government to conduct studies on the energy and water use of data centres,to create applicable energy efficiency metrics and good practices that promote efficiency,along with public reporting of historical data centre ener

266、gy and water usage.The Department of Energy(DOE)is supporting the local production of semiconductors and is funding the development of more efficient semiconductors over the next two decades.More efficient semiconductors reduce cooling requirements,thus supporting the decarbonisation of the sector.A

267、t a state level,regulators in Virginia and Oregon have already imposed requirements for better sustainability practices and carbon emissions reductions.Chinese regulators will require all data centres acquired by public organisations to improve their energy efficiency and be entirely powered by rene

268、wable energy by 2032,starting with a 5%share mandate for renewables in 2023.New fields of research can help increase efficiency and reduce energy consumption in data centres The primary drivers of data centre electricity demand are the cooling systems and the servers themselves,with each typically a

269、ccounting for 40%of the total consumption.The remaining 20%is consumed by the power supply system,storage devices and communication equipment.The adoption of high-efficiency cooling systems has the potential to reduce electricity demand in data centres by 10%.Other cooling research shows that a 20%r

270、eduction in consumption can be Electricity 2024 Global trends Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|37 I EA.CC BY 4.0.achieved when operating with direct-to-chip water cooling and specific low viscous fluids to cool all other components.Machine learning can help reduce the electricity demand of servers

271、 by optimizing their adaptability to different operating scenarios.Google reported using its DeepMind AI to reduce the electricity demand of their data centre cooling systems by 40%.In the long term,replacing supercomputers with quantum computers could reduce electricity demand of the sector if the

272、transition is supported by efficient cooling systems.Quantum computers deliver more and faster processing power than supercomputers while consuming less energy,but they need to be cooled to temperatures near absolute zero(-273C)while supercomputers can operate at 21C.Data centres are evolving toward

273、s more sustainable and efficient operations,including transitioning to Hyperscale Data Centres,which can run large-scale operations without a significant increase in electricity consumption.This transition is also financially attractive,with the global market for Hyperscale Data Centres projected to

274、 double in size by 2026 compared to 2023,reaching a value of USD 212 billion.Another promising field of research for decarbonising data centre operations involves time and location shifting of electricity demand.Software developments can allow operators to temporarily shift power loads with carbon-a

275、ware models that relocate data centre workloads to regions with lower carbon intensity at selected times.Simultaneously,such methodology has shown the probability of increasing the operational affordability by reducing costs of consuming low-emissions energy around the clock by up to 34%.Results of

276、this methodology combined with other energy efficiency measures in place and on-site low-emission energy production have demonstrated that data centres can achieve a 64%share of carbon-free energy in their total electricity consumption,according to Googles 2023 Environmental Report.Rising self-consu

277、mption in distributed systems and data collection challenges As part of the energy transition,distributed generation has been increasing in many parts of the world.This is most notably reflected in rising rooftop solar PV installations and growing amounts of self-consumption from behind-the-meter so

278、lar PV.By 2022,self-consumption from distributed solar PV generation accounted for about 2%of total electricity demand in Italy.In countries such as Germany,Spain,Brazil and Japan this share is estimated to be around 1%of total electricity demand in 2022.However,an accelerating trend in Spain and Br

279、azil can be observed.Electricity 2024 Global trends Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|38 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Estimated electricity self-consumption in distributed systems and its share in total electricity demand in selected countries,2019-2022 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:IEA estimates based on data and inform

280、ation from various sources;Federal Network Agency(Germany),Bundesnetzagentur;Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection(Germany),BMWK;Strom-Report,Photovoltaic in Germany;APPA(Spain),Self-consumption yearly report;IEA,Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme;Terna,(Italy);EPE(Brazil),Brazilian

281、 distributed generation.Self-consumption is set to increase as more distributed resources are deployed in the context of the energy transition.Improved availability of distributed generation and self-consumption data will be increasingly important for accurate demand forecasts,peak load projections

282、and grid planning.Depending on how self-consumption is accompanied by deployment of domestic storage systems,increased reliance on self-consumption can also have a bearing on flexibility estimations for system balancing operations.Therefore,in addition to forecasts and planning,a complete data set o

283、n distributed generation and consumption can give valuable insights into the potential for local flexibility solutions to mitigate intermittency challenges in power systems increasingly based on renewable generation.Improved data exchange between distribution system operators(DSOs)and transmission s

284、ystem operators(TSOs)can contribute to a more comprehensive accounting of self-consumption.Regarding individual consumption data,collected data must be handled with a certain degree of confidentiality.Data privacy protection policies on the topic have been implemented and are continuously adapted to

285、 emerging changes.However,these policies need to be designed in such a way that they do not create an additional obstacle for data utilisation.New EU rules adopted in June 2023,for example,enhance this process.These amendments are aimed at improving interoperability between customers,utilities and e

286、ligible third parties that wish to access smart metering data while protecting 0%2%4%6%8%10%0 3 6 9 12 1520192020202120222019202020212022201920202021202220192020202120222019202020212022GermanySpainItalyBrazilJapanTWhDistributed PV self-consumption in TWh(left axis)Share in total demand(right axis)El

287、ectricity 2024 Global trends Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|39 I EA.CC BY 4.0.consumers.The new rules allow stakeholders to access historical smart meter data from 2019 onwards,including near-real-time data.Smart meter roll-out on the way for improved data collection Global smart meter investmen

288、ts doubled in 2022 compared to 2015,with the number of smart meters exceeding 1 billion worldwide.China accounts for more than half of the total figure,followed by the European Union with 16%and the United States with a share of 13%.Smart meter penetration varies significantly among countries and re

289、gions,with use in 80%of US households.An estimated 70%EU consumers have a smart meter,and this share is expected to rise to 77%by 2024.In Latin America,approximately 10%of electricity consumers have smart meters,with 70%of this share in Brazil and Mexico.India aims to replace 250 million conventiona

290、l meters by 2026 and counts close to 8 million smart meters as of 2023.Lagged smart-meter roll out in several regions has been experienced due to budget constraints,complex procedures,and a general consumer concern on data privacy.Smart meters not only enable better and more detailed data collection

291、,which can be used for an improved assessment of self-consumption,among other things,but can also enable considerable cost savings.For example,in 2018 alone,with an installation cost of EUR 180-200,smart meters in the European Union have reportedly allowed yearly savings of EUR 280 per metering poin

292、t on average among the member states,which are based on direct and indirect benefits for consumers.Direct consumer benefits derive from an observed behavioural change in energy consumption triggered by the awareness of the granular data from smart meters.Additionally,timely information about dynamic

293、 tariffs motivates consumers to shift their energy consumption to times when is most economically convenient.Indirect benefits are enabled by an improvement on the utilitys operations,for example,by remote management of the metering system.Electricity 2024 Global trends Analysis and forecast to 2026

294、 PAGE|40 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Supply:Clean electricity to meet all additional demand out to 2026 Renewables overtake coal as the largest source of global electricity supply in 2025 Our forecast period out to 2026 is characterised by three turning points with regard to low-carbon electricity sources.First,

295、renewables are expected to generate more than one-third of worlds electricity in 2025,overtaking coal as the largest source of supply.Second,low-carbon sources renewables and nuclear together are expected to account for 46%of the worlds electricity generation by the end of 2026,rapidly approaching t

296、he halfway mark,up from 39%in 2023.And finally,on a global scale,low-carbon generation is set to meet all the additional demand growth towards 2026.In 2023,growth in renewable power generation was relatively subdued,recording an increase of 5%compared to 8%in 2022,and was below the 2016-2022 average

297、 of 6.5%.This was predominantly due to low hydropower output in various regions due to droughts,especially in China.Assuming the return to normal hydropower conditions,we expect stronger year-on-year gains in renewable generation,with a 14%surge in 2024 over the drought-stricken 2023,followed by an

298、annual average of 9%in 2025-2026.Changes in global electricity generation,2022-2026 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Other non-renewables includes oil,waste and other non-renewable energy sources.28 50029 00029 50030 00030 50031 00031 50032 00032 50033 0002022-+2023-+2026TWhCoalOther non-renewablesGasNuclearRenew

299、ablesElectricity 2024 Global trends Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|41 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Global nuclear generation is expected to reach a new historical high in 2025,exceeding the previous 2021 record.After rising by 2.7%in 2023,we forecast nuclear generation to grow on average by about 3%over the p

300、eriod 2024-2026.This is supported by the continued recovery in French nuclear output,restarts in Japan,and new plants coming online in many parts of the world,half of them in China and India alone.Year-on-year global change in electricity generation by source,2019-2026 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:Other non-

301、renewables includes oil,waste and other non-renewable energy sources.The figures for 2024-2026 are forecast values.Over the forecast period,coals share in global electricity generation is set to drop to below one-third from 36%in 2023,marking another significant milestone.Coal-fired generation is ex

302、pected to have peaked in 2023,with 1.6%year-on-year growth,after which it is set to post a decline of 3%in 2024,assuming a recovery in hydropower generation from the drought-induced low levels of 2023.This is forecast to be followed by a slow structural decline of around 1%on average in 2025-2026 un

303、der normal weather conditions.By contrast,following an increase of 0.5%in 2023,global gas-fired generation is expected to continue to rise at an average annual growth rate of less than 1%out to 2026.This will be supported by coal-to-gas switching in various regions,with additional LNG supply becomin

304、g available from 2025 onward.As clean electricity supply continues to expand rapidly,the share of fossil fuels in global generation is forecast to contract from 61%in 2023 to 54%in 2026.This is the first time fossil share in electricity generation will dip below 60%and decline at a pace never seen b

305、efore according to the IEA records dating back more than five decades.-1 000-5000 5001 0001 5002 00020192020202120222023202420252026TWhCoalGasNuclearOther non-renewablesRenewablesNet changeElectricity 2024 Global trends Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|42 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Evolution of the shares of

306、low-emissions sources vs.fossil fuels in global electricity generation(left),and the annual change of fossil fuel share(right),1975-2026 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Coal constrained by renewables in China,but not in other parts of Asia As highlighted in IEAs Renewables 2023 report,China commissioned in 2023 as mu

307、ch solar PV capacity as the entire world did in 2022,while its wind power capacity additions also grew by 66%year-on-year.The strong expansion trend of renewables is expected to result in renewable generation growing by around 20%in 2024,assuming a recovery in hydropower,and 13%on average in 2025-20

308、26,covering all the additional Chinese demand growth and suppressing coal-fired output.It should be noted that the weather impact,such as the reduced hydropower due to droughts as observed in recent years,can cause an uptick in Chinese coal-fired generation in individual years.However,the overall tr

309、end of coal-fired supply being restrained and replaced by strong growth in renewable energy sources(RES)is expected to remain largely stable.Given Indias rapid increase in demand for electricity,coal-fired power generation is expected to rise by an average 2.5%annually in 2024-2026.At the same time,

310、renewable generation will accelerate,with an average annual growth rate of 13%over the period.Southeast Asia is another region with new coal-fired capacities coming online amid significant demand growth.Coal-fired generation is set to increase each year on average about 4%out to 2026.Renewables are

311、expected to grow at a higher average 7%rate and gas-fired output at about 5%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%197519781981198419871990199319961999200220052008201120142017202020232026Share of renewables&nuclearShare of fossil fuels-6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%197519781981198419871990199319961999200220052

312、008201120142017202020232026Annual change of fossil fuel shareTrendElectricity 2024 Global trends Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|43 I EA.CC BY 4.0.In Japan,coal-fired generation is expected to decline annually on average by 3%and in Korea by 3%over our outlook period amid increased nuclear and re

313、newable generation.In other parts of Asia,such as Bangladesh and Pakistan,new coal plants are coming online,with coal-fired generation forecast to record average annual growth rates of 18%and 6%,respectively,from 2024 to 2026.Year-on-year change in electricity generation by source in Asia,2021-2026

314、IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Other non-renewables includes oil,waste and other non-renewable energy sources.-2000 200 400 600 8001 000202120222023202420252026ChinaTWhCoalGasNuclearOther non-renewablesRenewablesNet change-400 40 80 120 160 200202120222023202420252026202120222023202420252026IndiaSoutheast AsiaT

315、WhElectricity 2024 Global trends Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|44 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Spotlight:Nuclear generation will reach a new record high by 2025 Between 2024 and 2026,an additional 29 GW of new nuclear capacity is expected to come online globally,more than half of them in China and India.With

316、 new plants starting commercial operation in various regions,as well as French nuclear recovery and expected restarts in Japan,we forecast global nuclear generation will be almost 10%higher in 2026 compared to 2023.In 2025,global electricity generation from nuclear energy will have exceeded its prev

317、ious record level in 2021.In 2022 and 2023 many countries placed the phasing in or expansion of nuclear power at the centre of their strategies to reach climate policy objectives,sparking a significant revival of global interest in nuclear energy.The IEAs updated Net Zero Roadmap shows nuclear energ

318、y more than doubling by 2050,complementing renewable deployment,and easing the pressure on critical mineral supply.With a minority of European countries currently planning to phase out nuclear energy,many emerging and a number of advanced economies are planning to phase in or expand nuclear energy g

319、eneration.Based on the number of nuclear power plants that are currently under construction and new ones that are being planned,the growth in nuclear power is so far mainly in Asia.Evolution of nuclear power generation by region,1972-2026 IEA.CC BY 4.0 Note:The 2026 forecast is based on projects cur

320、rently under construction and expected to be operational by the end of the period.At COP28,over 20 countries signed a joint declaration to triple nuclear power capacity by 2050.Globally,that would mean an addition of 740 GW of nuclear 05001000150020002500300035001972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 19

321、93 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026TWhEuropean UnionUnited StatesOtherIndiaOther AsiaChinaForecastElectricity 2024 Global trends Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|45 I EA.CC BY 4.0.capacity to the current stock of 370 GW.The World Nuclear Association estimates that,as of Novem

322、ber 2023,68 GW was under construction,with a further 109 GW currently planned and 353 GW proposed.In addition to the reactors currently under construction,even if all these planned and proposed projects are realised,reaching the goal of the declaration would require an additional 210 GW to reach the

323、 announced objective by 2050.Nuclear power capacity under construction,planned or proposed as of November 2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0 Notes:We use the definitions employed by the World Nuclear Association.Planned projects include ones that are approved,and funding is committed and available.The timing for co

324、mmencement of operation is considered likely within 15 years.Proposed projects include those where the site and scale are specified,but the timing and approval remains uncertain.Source:IEA analysis based on data from World Nuclear Association.Asia remains the epicentre of growth in nuclear power Asi

325、as share in global nuclear generation is expected to reach 30%in 2026.Based on reactors under construction with expected completion up until 2026,Asia is set to surpass North America as the region with the largest installed capacity.Nuclear power has seen particularly strong growth in China over the

326、 last decade,with capacity additions of about 37 GW.This has resulted in Chinas share of global nuclear generation rising from 5%in 2014 to about 16%in 2023.China continues to lead in global nuclear capacity additions,with 27 GW currently under construction.In its 14th Five-Year Plan,China is aiming

327、 for total installed capacity of 70 GW by 2025.The countrys long-term commitment to nuclear power is further evidenced by its strategy to become increasingly self-reliant for its fuel cycle.Currently,China runs domestic mining operations with the capacity to cover around 15%of its yearly uranium dem

328、and.Having announced large domestic resources of 107 kt of uranium,China aims to source one-third of its uranium through domestic resources and equity stakes in mining operations in Africa.0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270ChinaIndiaRussiaEuropeanUnionUnitedKingdomJapanUnitedStatesRest ofworldGWUnde

329、r constructionPlannedProposedElectricity 2024 Global trends Analysis and forecast to 2026 PAGE|46 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Given these developments,technological leadership in nuclear power is shifting towards China and Russia.The technology providers for 70%of the reactors currently under construction were C

330、hina and Russia.In addition,China started commercial operation of its first fourth-generation reactor at the Shidaowan plant in December 2023,a 200 MW unit with a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor using a modular design.There are ultimately ten similar units planned at the site.Technology provider

331、s of currently operational reactors(left)and of reactors that are currently under construction or in planning(right)IEA.CC BY 4.0 Notes:Operational reactors in this figure also include the suspended reactors in Japan.Planned reactors include projects that are approved,and funding is committed and av

332、ailable.Source:IEA analysis based on in-house research and data from IAEA PRIS database(accessed January 2024).Contributing to large capacity additions in Asia,India announced in 2022 plans to triple its nuclear capacity by 2032,which corresponds to capacity additions of almost 13 GW,with 6 GW curre

333、ntly under construction.Bangladesh,with strong financial and technical support from Russia,currently has its first nuclear power plant under construction at the Rooppur site,where it recently received its first fuel shipment and is officially scheduled to begin commercial operations in 2024.Japan is set to continue its revival of nuclear energy as public opinion starts to favour the restart of nuc