《德国邮政敦豪集团（DEUTSCHE POST DHL GROUP）2024年第一季度业绩报告（英文版）（18页）.pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《德国邮政敦豪集团（DEUTSCHE POST DHL GROUP）2024年第一季度业绩报告（英文版）（18页）.pdf（18页珍藏版）》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。

1、Q1 2024 RESULTSMELANIE KREIS,GROUP CFODHL GROUP INVESTOR RELATIONSMay 7th,20241Management comments:B2B volumes did not show any meaningfulacceleration yet,as expected.B2C volumes indomesticmarketscontinuedtofollowthestructurale-commercedrivengrowthpath.Economic indicators increasingly point to posit

2、ivesignals confirming our assumption that globaltrade environment will improve in the secondhalf of the year,in linewith our FY 2024 guidanceassumptions.Against this background,we currently remainfocusedoncostandcapexcontrolwhilecontinuingto invest into long-term growthopportunities.22Guidance confi

3、rmed as market environment stabilizes but has not yet re-accelerated,in line with our guidance assumptionsQ1 2024 Group HighlightsBalanced approach:Strong cost focus yet continued investment in future growthSolid earnings and strong cash flow levels at cycle low allow to drive continued investment i

4、n future growth&cost improvementsQ1 developments in line with expectations continued cost and capex control remains main focus for nowQ1 2024 RESULTS|DHL GROUP INVESTOR RELATIONS|7 MAY 2024Management comments:As expected,our cyclical B2B businesses havenot seen any meaningful acceleration in activit

5、ylevelsjustyet.While air and ocean freight volumes are back togrowth in Q1 compared to a low base in Q12023,B2B TDI Express volumes show morestable yoy development confirming the historicpattern that Express TDI is less volatile and moreresilientthanfreightmarkets.3Q1 2024 RESULTS|DHL GROUP INVESTOR

6、 RELATIONS|7 MAY 20243B2B volumes developmentImprovement vs.low base but no dynamic acceleration in activity yet*excl.Hillebrand Air(+5%yoy)and Ocean(+7%yoy)Freight volumes back to yoy growthvs lowbaselastyear Confirmedpatternfrompreviousdownturns:Less cyclicality in ExpressTDIvolumesvs.Air&OceanFre

7、ight-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2021Q1 2022Q2 2022*Q3 2022*Q4 2022*Q1 2023*Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023Q1 2024Express TDI B2B Shipments/day yoyAir Freight Export Volumes(tons)yoyOcean Freight Volumes(TEU)yoyManagement comments:In the absence of a meaningful volume recovery yet,we have con

8、tinued to execute our EBIT protection plan across the group as part of our short-term cost saving measures to safeguard profitability.Even in our fixed-asset network in Express,we have well-established levers to flex down headcount and network capacity.4Q1 2024 RESULTS|DHL GROUP INVESTOR RELATIONS|7

9、 MAY 20244Short-term focus:Cost controlEBIT Protection Plan(EPP)in successful execution since late 2022EPP measures include reduction in overtime,third party labor and divisional FTE.As a result,productivity up yoy in DGF and bottoming out inExpress hub,sortation and ground operationsAirnetworkflexm

10、easuresincludeplaneretirements,returnofleasedaircraftandincreased usage of commercial airlift(CAL)Established set of measures(e.g.hiring freeze,travel restrictions)across all indirect functions.Acceleration of digital roadmaps under EPP alsodrives sustainable efficiency benefits+8%Air Freight files/

11、FTEQ1 2024 vs.Q1 2023+14%Ocean Freight files/FTEQ1 2024 vs.Q1 2023Productivity measuresAir fleet reduction-13%Express average capacityQ1 2024 vs.Dec 2021-100bpsGroupQ1 2024 vs.Q1 2019Reduction in indirect cost/revenueManagement comments:In Q1 2024,Group capex(owned assets)wasdown-15%yoy as we were a

12、ble to cut capex inreaction to the continued weak B2B volumes andhence low network utilization.At the same time,our financial strength allows us to continue toinvestintolong-termstructuralgrowthopportunities.For FY 2024,we expect Grosscapex(excl.leases)to be at 3.0-3.6bn(vs.FY2023:3.4bn).5Capex mana

13、gementCapex tightly controlled but ongoing investments in future growth opportunitiesQ1 2024 RESULTS|DHL GROUP INVESTOR RELATIONS|7 MAY 20245Capex adjustments reflecting current volume developmentInvestments in structural growthLong-term air fleet expansion e.g.strategic investment in intercontinent

14、al fleetPick-up and delivery fleet expansionLocal infrastructure,e.g.hubs,gateways,depots and service centersShort-term air fleet expansion e.g.re-fleeting regional planesStructural e-commerce growth(Parcel Germany,eCommerce)and Sustainability RoadmapMajor items of capex adjustments:New business win

15、s/start-ups in Supply ChainMajor items of continued investments:6Management comments:While B2B volumes have not seen a meaningful acceleration yet in Q1,Supply Chain continued to show yoy EBIT growth in the quarter thanks to its strong pipeline of new business signings.P&P Germany saw EBIT support f

16、rom parcel volume growth and cost measures so that Q1 EBIT already contributed significantly to the FY 2024 P&P EBIT guidance of 800m.Our active yield management ensures that we are adequately compensated for the services that we deliver.We used our proven measures such as ship-to-profile and red/ye

17、llow card process as well as a General Price Increase in all network divisions.The EBIT protection plan(EPP)mentioned previously supported our EBIT generation in Q1.While a broad acceleration of activity levels is not visible yet,volume trends are developing in the right direction,supporting our gui

18、dance assumption of an improved macroeconomic environment in H2.632m-30%yoyEXPRESS263m-32%yoyGLOBAL FORWARDING,FREIGHT256m+13%yoy194m+41%yoySUPPLY CHAINP&P GERMANY Slight TDI yoy volume decline in Q1 driven by B2B(-1%)and B2C (-2%)Annual General PriceIncrease drives yoy increase in like-for-like rev

19、/shipment Return to volume growth against low comparison base GP/unit stabilizing DGF EBIT/GP conversion rate of 28%Steady topline growth Reliable 5-6%EBIT margin corridor supported by continued deployment of digitalization&automation Structural e-commerce trend fully confirmed Annual GPI supports o

20、ffset of cost inflation Targeted investments to further expand networks Q1 volume developing in line with long-term trends Good Q1 EBIT contribution towards 800m full-year target60m-26%yoyECOMMERCEQ1 2024 Group EBIT of 1,314m(-20%yoy)6Q1 2024 RESULTS|DHL GROUP INVESTOR RELATIONS|7 MAY 2024Q1 in line

21、 with expectations;continued cost and capex control remains main focus for now7Management comments:Looking at the Express business model and the more detailed shipment cycle,it is clear that the prolonged volume decline is driving lower network utilization all along the network.Our EBIT protection p

22、lan and capacity reduction measures in our airlift and ground operations help to limit,but cannot fully offset the adverse operating leverage on key metrics like Cost per Kg(CpK)and Operating Costs per Move(OPCM).Of course,all well-proven yield management mechanisms remain fully in place.Q1 2024 RES

23、ULTS|DHL GROUP INVESTOR RELATIONS|7 MAY 202473:00 PMPICK UP FROM CUSTOMERIN HONG KONG11:20 PMTRANSIT HUBIN LEIPZIG6:15 AMIMPORT GATEWAYIN MADRID9:00 AMDELIVERY TO CONSIGNEEIN MADRID8:00 AMINBOUND SORTING IN MADRIDExpress global FTE-4%from peak to trough2024 General Price Increase of 5.9%Like-for-lik

24、e rev/kg+4%yoyTDI Shipments/Day-1%yoyB2B-1%yoy and B2C-2%yoyLow weight load factor in dedicated air fleetLow productivity level in the hubs but bottoming out(Daily hub pieces/FTE)Utilization levels in pick-up and delivery still low,but bottomimg out(Stops/On-road hour)6:30 PMEXPORT SORTING&HUB EXPOR

25、T SORTING&HUB DEPARTURE IN DEPARTURE IN HONGHONGKONGKONGDecline in daily moves/FTE in local sorting centers flattening out Express:Deep-DiveProlonged volume decline leading to low utilization along globally integrated networkManagement comments:While utilization across the global network is low,EBIT

26、 remains significantly above pre-pandemic levels,reflecting the structurally higher earnings generation.From this basis,a return to Express EBIT growth is a key driver of our 2026 Group guidance.Our underlying market assumption is a swing back to TDI volume growth after the unusually long period of

27、volume decline.As much as the prolonged weak volumes have led to low network utilization in the last quarters,this re-acceleration of growth will generate positive operating leverage effects in our aviation and ground operations.Of course,this volume-driven effect will be further supported by struct

28、ural levers and dedicated actions targeting growth,productivity and yield optimization.8Express mid-term perspectiveRecovery path to be driven by established network drivers and dedicated actionsQ1 2024 RESULTS|DHL GROUP INVESTOR RELATIONS|7 MAY 20248Air fleet utilization at historically low levels;

29、Express EBIT nevertheless structurally higherGrowth opportunities from e-commerce(Power Up Your Potential)and SMEs(SME 360program)Active yield management based on annual General Price Increase(GPI),surcharges and established mechanismsTOPLINELeading premium service quality through customer centricit

30、y programs First Choice and ICCC+*STRUCTURAL LEVERSFurther operational efficiencies driven by digitalization(e.g.optimization in routing,staffing,customs clearance)Return to lower unit cost(cost/kg)in aviation from higher utilization in dedicated network and further increase of commercial airlift(CA

31、L)COST MANAGEMENTImproved productivity in ground operations throughturnaround in operational leverage and dedicated measuresMid-term:Profitable growth drivers remain intact354045505560020040060080010001200Q1 2019Q1 2020Q1 2021Q1 2022Q1 2023Q1 2024EBITTDI Weight Load Factor*ICCC+=Insanely Customer Ce

32、ntric Culture,Cloud-based solution to analyze&apply customer feedback Management comments:Q1 developed in line with the expectations setout for H1 2024:B2B volumes did not show anymeaningful acceleration yet while B2C volumesin domestic markets continued their structuralgrowthpath.Recently,economic

33、indicators increasingly pointto positive signals,confirming our expectationthattheglobaltradeenvironmentshouldimprovein thesecondhalfof theyear.With year-to-date developments confirming ourguidance assumptions we today also fully re-iterateour2024 andmid-termguidance.9Q1 2024 RESULTS|DHL GROUP INVES

34、TOR RELATIONS|7 MAY 20249STRUCTURAL FACTORSFactors influencing 2024 guidanceWell prepared for a still uncertain yearSTRUCTURAL GROWTH FROM E-COMMERCEDISCIPLINED YIELD MANAGEMENTBENEFITS FROM DIGITALIZATION&CONTINUED INVESTMENTSOMNI-SHORINGCYCLICAL FACTORSH1 2024 EBIT expected to decline yoy:Higher c

35、omparison base in Global Forwarding,Freight Lack of B2B recovery in Express;network costs subject to inflationH2 2024 EBIT expected to increase yoy:Improvement in macroeconomic environmentGUIDANCE ASSUMPTIONSTIMING OF INVENTORY RIGHTSIZING PHASE PACE OF GDP DEVELOPMENTManagement comments:The guidanc

36、e for 2024 and 2026 remainsunchanged as YTD developments were in linewith ourassumptionssofar.Some economic indicators increasingly point topositive signals confirming our assumption forthe economic improvement to be more visible inthesecondhalfof theyear.10Q1 2024 RESULTS|DHL GROUP INVESTOR RELATIO

37、NS|7 MAY 2024102024 and mid-term guidance confirmedOutlook remains well above pre-pandemic levelin bnMid-term Guidance2026 Group EBIT7.5-8.5Free Cash Flow*2024-2026 cumulative9-10Gross Capex(excl.leases)2024-2026 cumulative9-11EBIT2024 GuidanceGroup6.0-6.6DHL5.7P&P Germany0.8Group Functions-0.45Free

38、 Cash Flow*3.0Gross Capex(excl.leases)3.0-3.6Tax Rate28-30%*excl.Net M&ANote:250m blanket budget for M&A expenses p.a.Q1 2024 RESULTS|DHL GROUP INVESTOR RELATIONS|7 MAY 202411Cost control remains the main short-term focusCost and capex measures safeguarded our strong cash generation,which allows us

39、to avoid short-sighted actionsDriving structurally higher efficienciesLeveraging short-term necessity and digitalization opportunitiesto emerge from the cyclical downturn with enhanced structural efficiency2024 is also a year of opportunitiesTargeting structural growth from megatrends(e-commerce),re

40、gional shifts(omni-shoring)and high-growth verticals(e.g.renewables)CFO Wrap-upStringent cost focus does not stop us from capturing structural growth opportunitiesManagement comments:While economic acceleration is yet to come,weare using our stringent cost focus to safeguardprofitability and invest

41、into the structural currentandfuturegrowth drivers.We will be able to fully benefit from operatingleverage once B2B volumes return to growth.Furthermore,we are strongly positioned towardsstructural growth drivers while we continue toexecute on incremental yield and efficiencymeasures.1112APPENDIXQ1

42、2024 RESULTS|DHL GROUP INVESTOR RELATIONS|7 MAY 20241213RevenueEBITNet Profit*Basic EPS(in)20,251m(-3.2%yoy)1,314m(-19.8%yoy)743m(-18.4%yoy)0.63(-17.1%yoy)Q1 2024 RESULTS|DHL GROUP INVESTOR RELATIONS|7 MAY 202413Q1 2024 developments in line with expectationsOperating Cash FlowNet CapexNet M&AFree Ca

43、sh Flow2,001m(-16.5%yoy)-671m(+13.6%yoy)-16m(800m full-year target,aheadofwage increaseimplementedonApril 1st 2024 EBIT target confirmed but insufficient to finance structuraltransition towards Parcel and green infrastructure:Unchangedexpectation that new postal law will set new,up-to-date USOframew

44、ork regardingdeliveryspeed andpriceregulationPost&Parcel GermanyWorking through major structural transformation from Mail to ParcelQ4 2019-Q1 2024 rolling four quarters,indexed+25%-16%Mail vs.Parcel Volume developmentQ4 2019Q1 2024MailParcelQ1 volume/working day Mail Communication&Dialogue Marketing

45、DisclaimerThis presentation contains certain statements that are neither reported results nor other historical information.These forward-looking statementsare subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statement

46、s.Many of these risks and uncertainties relate to factors that are beyond Deutsche Post AGs ability to control or estimate precisely,such as futuremarket and economic conditions,the behavior of other market participants,the ability to successfully integrate acquired businesses and achieveanticipated

47、 synergies and the actions of government regulators.Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-lookingstatements,which apply only as of the date of this presentation.Deutsche Post AG does not undertake any obligation to publicly release anyrevisions tothese forward-lookingsta

48、tements toreflect events or circumstancesafter the dateofthis presentation.This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to subscribe for or buy any security,nor shall there be any sale,issuanceortransfer ofthe securitiesreferred toin thispresentation inany j

49、urisdictionincontravention ofapplicable law.Copies of this presentation and any documentation relating to the Offer are not being,and must not be,directly or indirectly,mailed or otherwiseforwarded,distributedor sentin orintoor fromAustralia,Canadaor Japanor any otherjurisdictionwhereto doso wouldbe unlawful.Thisdocumentrepresents theCompanysjudgmentas ofdate ofthis presentation.Please findourprivacy noticehere:https:/