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1、Chief Economists OutlookCentre for the New Economy and SocietyJanuary 20232Chief Economists OutlookDisclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project,insight area or interaction.The findings,interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result o

2、f a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum,nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders.2023 World Economic Forum.All rights reserved.No part of this publication

3、 may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,including photocopying and recording,or by any information storage and retrieval system.3Chief Economists OutlookChief Economists OutlookJanuary 2023This briefing builds on the latest policy development research as well as consultations a

4、nd surveys with leading chief economists from both the public and private sectors,organized by the World Economic Forums Centre for the New Economy and Society.It aims to summarize the emerging contours of the current economic environment and identify priorities for further action by policy-makers a

5、nd business leaders in response to the compounding shocks to the global economy from geo-economic and geopolitical events.The survey featured in this briefing was conducted November-December 2022.4Chief Economists OutlookContentsExecutive summary _ 51.The year ahead _ 7Global recession risk looms _

6、7Inflation moderates,but slowly _ 9Policymakers face trade-offs _ 112.Energy and food crises _ 14A potential peak in the cost of living _ 14Progress on the energy emergency _ 173.Business in the new landscape _ 20 Expectations of rough terrain _ 20Defensive strategies _ 23References _ 25Contributors