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1、23 Shipping Trends in 2023Heres your exclusive access to the most important predictions about logistics and supply chain for 2023.Powered by our data,polls and inputs directly from industry experts!As we close this tumultuous year,we take this opportunity to express our heartfelt thanks to you for y

2、our continued support.Thank you for reading our monthly report,Where Are All the Containers,and choosing us as one of your favorite platforms to gather news about logistics and supply chain.As a token of our gratitude,this time we have created an exclusive edition with forecasts and insights for 202

3、3.Our year-ending issue 23 Shipping Trends in 2023 is a special edition with a special aim.It carries 23 predictions about the emerging trends that will impact the container shipping industry this year.These predictions are based on extensive industry research and data that we have gathered from:For

4、 this,we also thank Ruben Huber,Founder and Director,OceanX;Mike King,Podcast host and editor,The Loadstar;Aamir S.Mir,Chief Operating Officer,Caspian Container Company SA;and our co-founders,Dr.Johannes Schlingmeier,and Christian Roeloffs,for their time and inputs.At Container xChange,we continue t

5、o be dedicated to doing our part.We are a technology companystriving to simplify the logistics of global trade by making processes around the container as simple as the box itself.We do that by providing a neutral infrastructure that connects all logistics companies to remove friction and create eco

6、nomic opportunity.As part of this mission,we are also continuously studying the industry,the market,participants,strategies,trends,etc.and building reports around this to share these insights with you.We hope you enjoy yet another new edition from our end.Heres wishing you an extremely happy and hea

7、lthy 2023!To our valued readers,An industry survey that we sent out to our network of clients,readers,and industry expertsPersonal interviews scheduled with seasoned professionals in logistics,journalists as well as our co-foundersSocial media polls that we conducted in November and December 20222Fo

8、reword1 Infmation to lower consumer confjdence even furtherConsumer spending will be slow in 2023.This drop will remain a big concern for the global economy.With the global inflation rates rising and the Chinese New Year coming up,the first two quarters of 2023 are likely to be difficult for the shi

9、pping industry.Because of this,we can also expect empty containers to be sufficiently available at many ports across the world.2 A year of worker strikes gone,another to comeThe unresolved worker strikes of 2022 will spill over in 2023.Furthermore,the chances of new strikes coming up are high due to

10、 inflation-related rise in prices putting pressure on workers disposable incomes.Labor dissatisfaction might grow in European and North American economies.In that case,it will cause disruptions in global supply chains.3Ruben Huber,Founder and Director,OceanXIn 2023,in an environment where costs have

11、 increased through inflation,margin pressure will be a key concern.Forwarding and logistics are low-margin businesses,so having the eye on the ball and being proactive in cost-saving will be essential.Furthermore,one should not forget that a large part of our industry,especially on the sales side,is

12、 incentivised by commissions,which together with margins will decline and affect the motivation of many.This may result in a loss of talent as well to other industries in some markets.“”Due to inflation increasing,therell be more unrest in the labour market which will certainly lead to more strikes,

13、specifically in Europe,the UK and North America.And as we have seen before,strikes result in slow operations within the port which can exacerbate supply issues.“Aamir S.Mir,Chief Operating Officer(COO),Caspian Container Company SA”48.1%34.6%15.4%1.9%Global infmation&forecasted recessionRussia-Ukrain

14、e warLockdowns in ChinaWorker StrikesOther88.5%57.7%53.8%23.1%3.8%Which forces will impact businesses in 2023?While strikes may continue,I dont think they will disrupt the supply chain all that muchIts been a tough few years for port workers.I expect the strikes will continue and cause congestionI a

15、m not worried at all about worker strikes in 2023OtherWill worker strikes disrupt supply chains in 2023?100755025088.5%57.7%53.8%23.1%3.8%3 New Container ships in 2023-2024A record number of new and huge container ships will hit the water in 2023.At present,the containership orderbook reportedly sta

16、nds at 7.1 million TEUs.Most of the tonnage on order will be delivered in 2023 and 2024.Alphaliner predicts 2.34 million TEUs in 2023 and 2.83 million TEUs in 2024,compared to around 1.1 million TEUs in both 2021 and 2022.4 Equipment surplus to cause ripple efgects in Q1Carriers,freight forwarders,c

17、ontainer leasers and traders might bear the brunt of low rates and excessive competition as markets will slowly align with the dropping demands.During the pandemic,very little of the equipment was scrapped,but in 2022,carriers began disposing of their old fleet.In the end,the biggest question mark i

18、s what will carriers do how they choose to act will have the biggest impact.If they cut capacity and blank huge amounts of sailings,then customers will suffer,but rate cuts might be stemmed.Were already seeing pretty much all new entrants leaving the industry and more ships being scrapped.“Mike King

19、,Podcast host and editor,The Loadstar”469.2%53.8%53.8%50%38.5%38.5%17.3%7.7%Lockdowns in ChinaGlobal InfmationRussia-Ukraine warCOVID-19 afuermathOversupply for the containers in the marketRising oil ratesWorker strikesOtherWhich global events impacted businesses in 2022?69.2%53.8%53.8%38.5%38.5%17.

20、3%7.7%50%80604020055 Congestion at depots to stay throughout Q1Container depots will remain overstocked for the first few months of the year as inventories will run high.Feeble demand,the upcoming Chinese New Year,and inflation will keep the pickup volumes low,creating an overall challenging price e

21、nvironment for containers.6 Container storage fees and other fjnes to riseCongested depots will charge higher container storage fees to disincentivize containers from staying past their deadlines.Empty container repositioning will remain a problem in 2023 while more equipment will hit the waters.Por

22、ts will face congestion and containers exceeding their dwell times will face increased demurrage and detention charges.In addition,in 2023,there will be careful monitoring of other fees like insurance charges,claims,etc.But some have different ideas:Christian Roeloffs,cofounder and CEO,Container xCh

23、angeThere is just not enough depot space to accommodate all the containers.With the further release of container inventory into the market(e.g.,from the disposal of leasing fleets),there will be added pressure on depots in the coming months.This will be a key challenge for some and a competitive adv

24、antage for others in the business,especially in China because of the empty container repositioning there.“”Beyond the actual cost behind both items,demurrage and detention fees are largely driven by market power and this will no doubt shift further back from carriers towards shippers and importers,w

25、ho will demand reductions and extended free times again.“Ruben Huber,Founder and Director,OceanX”46.2%40.4%11.5%1.9%Container depots will be overloaded at the start but the over supply will ease with timeContainer depots will continue to become congested with containers causing lack of spaceContaine

26、r depots will not face any congestion whatsoeverCant sayWill container depots struggle with congestion in 2023?67 Plummeting freight rates will rise but not soonAs the growth of the volume of goods will remain low,the imbalance between demand and supply of freight transport services will continue.Sp

27、ot rates will continue to drop in 2023 at least initially and it will take some time to recover.8 Market volatility to cause a price warAs the market gets flooded with containers,shipping lines shall continue to either reduce vessel capacity or stick to blank sailings.Maersk,for example,has been mak

28、ing such capacity adjustments in its services from Asia to other continents.Under such circumstances,we expect a rate war in the shipping industry in 2023.Aamir S.Mir,Chief Operating Officer,Caspian Container Company SAWhile freight rates are dropping now,we expect theyll eventually stabilize after

29、Q1 and this means that therell be more of a balance restored,as far as rates are concerned.This is because the carriers are already disposing of their old fleet to rectify the surplus.And a reduced supply will lead to a more balanced demand.“”Tight grip on costs becomes paramount for freight forward

30、ers in 2023.While on one hand there will be a great deal of negotiation with shipping lines,on the other hand,operational cost optimization will be crucial for the forwarders.“Dr.Johannes Schlingmeier,cofounder and CEO,Container xChange”Yes-and I believe they will fjnally reach pre-pandemic valuesYe

31、s they will continue to fall but possibly spike again NoCant sayWill the trend of falling shipping rates continue in 2023?46.2%40.4%9.6%3.8%79 Contract rates to remain low,pulled down by spot ratesLong-term shipping contract rates will see an uptick in 2023,though gradually.This slow increase applie

32、s to all modes of transport.With negotiations going on to bring contract rates in line with spot rates,a reset is expected.On the other hand,until there is a balance reached between supply and demand,forwarders will favor short-term contracts.Once the rates begin stabilizing,long-term contracts will

33、 become popular.Mike King,Podcast host and editor,The LoadstarIf given the choice between entering a short or long-term contract,I would choose short term.Right now,time is on the side of the buyer.I would want to wait for rates to drop a little,or perhaps would opt to diversify and create a spread

34、of both short and long-term contracts.“”10 Trucking rates to sufgerTrucking rates for both dry and reefer cargos will continue to drop in 2023.Freight tonnage will continue to contract as market conditions and volumes return to pre-pandemic numbers.As the market has significant freight capacity avai

35、lable in 2023,trucking rates will also suffer.There is a risk of small trucking and transport companies shutting down.In trucking,owner-operators will take up jobs with large conglomerates and become a part of their fleet.11 Air freight market to decline2022s dip in transported cargo volumes will co

36、ntinue to impact the air freight industry in 2023.As airfreight volumes will continue to drop,freight forwarders will become wary of long-term contracts.They will employ a wait and see approach before making any long-term air cargo capacity commitments.On the other hand,low reliability on ocean carr

37、iers schedule numbers had led to shippers resorting to air freight instead.But now that port congestion is easing,ocean carriers schedule reliability is expected to improve.With that,it is likely that carriers would exhibit a modal shift from air to ocean freight,which is also a more cost-effective

38、option for them.As the International Air Transport Association(IATA)had pointed out,the global air cargo volumes are forecast to decline 4%year-on-year in 2023,after an 8%drop this year.The contract rates will continue to plummet due to the oversupply of containers and drop in cargo demandThe contra

39、ct rates will normalise to pre-pandemic timesContract rates will rise again in the coming months as a result of the market slumpOtherWhat is the forecast for the shipping contract rates?44.2%34.6%17.3%3.8%40503020100812 Carriers to cut capacity,bring back balanceIn 2023,the capacity growth in the ca

40、rrier industry will be high as more equipment and vessels will join the global fleets.But the consumer demand will continue to fall for a while.The Chinese New Year and the shutdown of factories in China will also add to the market slump.Small carriers and freight forwarders will face harsh struggle

41、s,but alliance carriers will mostly survive unharmed.The focus of the carrier industry would be on offering good discounts to maintain their portfolios among such clients.But since remaining profitable will be a higher priority,carriers will be taking actions globally or on select trade routes.Ruben

42、 Huber,Founder and Director,OceanXTwo,almost three exceptional years for carriers are definitely coming to an end.They will have to adapt back to lower margins due to a different supply and demand balance.Many customers,forced into high-cost contracts during the up-cycle,will come for revenge in the

43、 down cycle.And regulatory pressures,following excessive profits might appear on top of that,be it through bodies like FMC,EU or Chinas MOC,as they are each reviewing alliance exemptions,new taxation regulations,or precedence cases from several complaints raised by shippers at different institutions

44、.“”No new equipment:Carriers will avoid adding new equipment to balance the demand.Blank sailings:Shipping lines will continue with blank sailings.Suspension/merging of shipping services:Alliance carriers might continue to suspend and/or merge shipping services on difgerent routes.Scrapping old vess

45、els:Carriers will choose to send old vessels for retirement.Delaying new vessels:New vessels scheduled to hit waters will be delayed.Idling vessels:Carriers might allow the vessels to idle or be sent for maintenance work.Slow steaming:Vessels will sail at slower under new laws climate laws,also to m

46、anage demand.Price war:Shipping lines will go into a price war to ensure profjts.What will carriers do in 2023 to manage equipment capacity and ensure profjtability:12345678913 SOCs will struggle with lack of digital transformationIn 2023,the usage of SOCs in ocean freight bookings will continue to

47、be hampered by low levels of transparency,visibility and trust.Shippers looking to use the more flexible SOCs to avoid hefty fees will struggle with getting accurate quotations,confirmations of available capacity,and a lack of schedule reliability.Amidst a lack of digital transformation,shipper owne

48、d containers will struggle with a lack of carriers to take care of the processes.In 2023,companies investing in SOCs will find that their margins are not as great.Christian Roeloffs,co-founder and CEO,of Container xChangeLack of transparency and standardized digital processes has fueled inefficiency

49、 and mistrust for a very long time in the logistics industry.These struggles are further worse for shipper owned containers where there is no carrier to take care of processes.This hinders the adoption of SOCs in the market.“”14 Mineral supply for clean energy to cause tensionsThe US and EU will nee

50、d to secure critical mineral supply chains.Furthermore,inflation-related price pressures will continue to weigh down on the metals and minerals markets.As both the US and the EU intend to add significant clean energy sources,it will add competition and demand for copper,lithium,cobalt and nickel,mak

51、ing shortages in the future a real risk.The issue could also exacerbate the US-China as well as US-EU tensions.As policies and investments start impacting markets,they will drive geopolitical dynamics with countries from Africa,Latin America,and beyond.42.3%32.7%25%We will look at the UAE as an alte

52、rnativeWe will look at the US as an alternative for LNG importsOtherWhich country will be an alternative source of energy in 2023?1015 Increased focus on diversifjcation of sourcingTo avoid lockdown-related delays in manufacturing and shipping,companies will move away from highly globalized supply c

53、hain models of the pre-pandemic times.In the future,more companies will adopt near-sourcing,nearshoring,and reshoring trends to bring their manufacturing hubs closer to their end-markets.These new sourcing strategies will aim at rebalancing supply chains by deleveraging from areas of concentrated pr

54、oduction activities and spreading them over a range of countries to increase flexibility and resilience.16 US to push harder for friendshoringThe US coined a buzzword for the industry this year:friendshoring.The term refers to the process of relocating supply chains to countries that are friends or

55、allies of each other.The objective seems to be to prevent countries especially China and Russia in the case of the US from using their market advantages in key raw materials,foods and products.Apple wanting to reduce its dependence on producing iPhones in China and exploring India as an alternative,

56、is an example of that.Same with Foxconn expanding production facilities in Vietnam.However,it will take several years to move capacity out of China.The US itself continues to depend on China for hundreds of critical goods including textiles,chemicals and electronics.17 Third-party logistics or 3PLs

57、will rise to even more popularity.If you are a retailer and want to partner with a 3PL,this can help you scale up.Through 3PLs,you can outsource your logistics operations,and this can save you time and money.At the same time,you build your own network of carriers and create ready access to a fleet f

58、or yourself.You get low rates as well.We expect the 3PL market to solidify in 2023.Reportedly,its projected to reach$1,789.74 billion by 2027.No I dont think therell be more lockdowns in 2023Yes,production-wiseYes,fjnanciallyYes,itll lead to a loss of global contracts/partnershipsWill the lockdowns

59、continue in 2023 and how will they impact businesses?40%26.7%20%13.3%18 Trade with China to become Trade with China+1Companies looking for sourcing alternatives will not diminish Chinas vital role in global manufacturing in 2023.We will witness a gradual shift from industries relying solely on China

60、 for production capacity and skilled manpower.As the years move on,manufacturing and production companies will diversify and spread their businesses to China+1 or other viable locations in the region such as India and Vietnam.11Mike King,Podcast Host&Editor,The LoadstarDue to all the lockdowns which

61、 have economic and human-rights impacts the risk to dependency has become especially apparent.The Russia-Ukraine war has exacerbated this realization Do you want to be dependent on a country that doesnt share your values?My forecast is that therell be a recalibration from stakeholders based on share

62、d value chains,but that the dependence on China will still be there.The dwindling dependence will be a gradual thing as it cant happen overnight,so there certainly wont be a mass pull out at least not in 2023.“”19 Industrys digitalisation to remain slowIn 2023,industry players will be pushing for di

63、gital transformation in the ocean freight industry but the speed of innovation will be slow.In the years to come,the adoption of digital technologies in shipping will focus on vessel schedules,intuitive booking interfaces,instant slot booking,and capacity confirmations.In this regard,the industrys m

64、ajor concern will be on having systems interact directly via automating the Data-Analysis-Decision-Action cycle.Aamir S.Mir,Chief Operating Officer(COO),Caspian Container Company SAThe pandemic showed us not only how important digital tools are,but how exciting and optimal they are in connecting glo

65、bal industries.Certainly,the digitization ball is rolling and each year its growing.So,I would say that of course,we can look forward to 2023 being more digital than in 2022.“”20 Loss of talentWith rising costs,there might also be pressure on employers to increase employees salaries.As the industry

66、struggles with these pressures,it will need to consider new strategies to sustain businesses.Yes.I believe Vietnam and India will rise as functioning container shipping hubs in 2023 and change the existing layout of the global shipping industryNo-we are hoping to still rely on China and its existing

67、 trade routes Other67.3%26.9%5.8%Afuer Chinas Zero-Covid restrictions,are businesses considering alternatives for production and manufacturing?22 MARPOL vessels to test their exhaust emissionsThe International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships(MARPOL)is the main international con

68、vention responsible for the prevention of pollution of the marine environment,caused by ships from operational or accidental causes.From 1 January 2023,vessels registered in MARPOL signatory countries will have their exhaust emissions tested at the vessels next annual,intermediate or renewal survey

69、thereafter.This test will be conducted using a scale known as the Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index(EEXI).All vessels of 400 gross tonnage(GT)or more registered in MARPOL signatory countries will be tested.The objective of this initiative is to drive the shipping industry towards the Internation

70、al Maritime Organizations(IMO)target of a 40%reduction in carbon emissions compared to 2008 levels by 2030.On the other hand,shipping giant Maersk too had earlier announced that it will launch the worlds first carbon-neutral vessel in 2023 as an attempt to decarbonize marine operations by 2050.1221

71、Not so sustainable a shipping industryIn 2023,the dreams of achieving a sustainable global supply chain and logistics system will remain far-fetched.The sustainability of our supply chains,one of the key challenges faced by the industry,will continue to be an ongoing conversation.A lack of consolida

72、ted effort in directing investments to make the industry more sustainable will hamper the goals and targets set for the future.Ruben Huber,Founder and Director,OceanXSustainability remains the other key challenge for our industry where far too little is being done.Q3 2022 yielded the top carriers al

73、most another 60 billion USD in net profits.Yet,the investments in more sustainable shipping remain very limited,and targets are set far in the future like 2040 and 2050.“”23 Shipping industry work cultures to undergo changeDuring the pandemic,the shipping industry moved to a culture of working from

74、home.Digitalization aided the shift as well.We expect this new pattern of working from home to continue in 2023.And so,it is plausible that more talent will join the industry this year.The industry will face demands of better work conditions,competitive wages,and job security from the newer generati

75、ons of shipping staff that join.Ruben Huber,Founder and Director,OceanXAnother good thing is certainly the forced digitalisation through work from home.The place where certain tasks are conducted matters a lot less now and in many ways our industrys digitalisation has accelerated,online meetings hav

76、e become mainstream,virtual cooperation with colleagues too.Certainly,a change process that would have taken a decade without the pandemic.“”About Container xChange13Container xChange is a logistics technology company headquartered in Hamburg,Germany.As the leading platform to buy,sell and lease Shi

77、pper-owned-containers(SOCs),we help our customers find,book,and manage containers as well as execute all the related processes on their behalf.This includes handling their payments and invoices.We offer you efficient operational software,payment infrastructure and dedicated customer support.Within o

78、ur system,your wallet will reflect real time as well as daily updates on your transactions.At the core of our products is the will to simplify the operations of container logistics globally.Book Free DemoBesides that,through our regular reports and campaigns,we bring to you industry news,forecasts a

79、nd updated price indicators.If you would like to know more directly from our experts who have years of experience in the industry,please click on the button below.Contact UsxChange offers you market transparency,helps you avoid demurrage and detention charges,and enhances your operational flexibilit

80、y.We cover the entire transaction process,right from finding you new partners to tracking your containers and managing your payments.With xChange,you can buy,sell,or lease containers,conduct transactions,and track your containers through us.Monitor pick-up and dropoff,release references,depot commun

81、ications,surverying,insurance and more all in one place.You can also chat directly online and grow your network.Container xChange is the worlds first online marketplace for shipping containers.Today,vetted container logistics companies use our platform,xChange.They can buy,sell,or lease containers all in one place.1,500+14Ritika Kapoorrkacontainer-For press inquiries,please write to:Rashi Chauhanrcacontainer-For content queries,please write to:abgcontainer-andAnanya Borgohaincbucontainer-andCandice Buckle