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1、Global Research Retrofitting Buildings to be Future-FitThe journey to decarbonizationNovember 2022Retrofitting Buildings to be Future-Fit|2 Key Messages1Decarbonizing existing assets is critical to avoiding the brown discountWhile economic headwinds,escalating costs and labor shortages are making it
2、 harder to unlock retrofitting opportunities over the short term,progressive owners are doubling down on net zero carbon(NZC)interventions in the knowledge that liquidity,pricing and debt are increasingly influenced by a buildings emissions performance.Rising energy costs will hasten the move toward
3、s efficient buildings and reinforce emerging value trends,with the financial risks of inaction already becoming apparent.Acute shortages of NZC buildings will benefit early adopters of retrofitting by boosting rent,reducing financial risk,improving access to capital at favorable rates,and making it
4、easier to attract and retain tenants.2We must triple the pace of NZC retrofitting collaboration at all levels will be keyAt current rates,decarbonization will not be achieved until the end of the century,which will be too late to align with the Paris Climate Agreement.In the Global North,retrofittin
5、g rates need to triple from barely 1%today to at least 3%of stock per year.An estimated US$3 trillion will be required to meet these targets.Addressing the knowledge gap,upskilling the workforce and scaling technology will be critical to accelerating the pace of retrofitting.3NZC interventions need
6、to be strategically planned and pursued at scale The actions to decarbonize are clear maximizing operational efficiencies,the electrification of heat,incorporating on-site renewable energy and sourcing off-site local renewable energy,with offsetting as a last resort.Retrofitting is complex,and owner
7、s need to take a holistic,long-term strategic view for it to be successful.4Relationships between owner and occupier will need to deepen requiring new business models Both landlords and tenants stand to gain significant value by collaborating to form new partnerships,create new business models and i
8、dentify co-investment approaches.Tenant usage is a major factor in delivering NZC outcomes.This will disrupt the economics of existing leases.5Retrofitting must also go beyond carbon to meet wider sustainability goalsThe real estate industry must rebalance its efforts from new construction to retrof
9、itting and embrace whole life carbon.NZC retrofits are both more viable and responsible when considered in tandem with broader asset repositioning that responds to changing workplace dynamics,health and wellbeing needs,social impact,biodiversity,and climate resilience.Retrofitting Buildings to be Fu
10、ture-Fit|3 Retrofitting will need to be at the core of real estate decarbonization plansGlobally,the real estate industry is facing an enormous challenge:retrofitting our buildings to reduce global carbon emissions.It is time for those leading the industry,along with governments,to drive the asset t
11、ransformation needed.JLL estimates that US$3 trillion will be required to meet these retrofitting targets.Addressing the knowledge gap,upskilling the workforce and scaling technology will be critical.The transition to a low carbon economy comes with a hefty price tag but as recently declared by the
12、IMF,1 further delaying climate policies will hurt economic growth;the time to act is now.Many in the industry have heard the adage the greenest building is the one that already exists.This is largely due to the embodied carbon associated with the construction industry,which makes up 11%of global car
13、bon emissions.2 Retrofitting existing building stock provides an opportunity for innovation in an industry that has been well overdue for a transformation.Given that real estate is the largest asset class in the world,there is significant incentive for companies to upgrade their real estate holdings
14、.However,lack of consistent data and standards often prevents investors and owners from taking action as globally many developers are not yet mandated to measure or report on the carbon footprint of their assets.Retrofitting buildings across the world represents an immense task,not made any easier b
15、y the ongoing geopolitical crisis that has triggered the current energy crisis.This has emphasized the need for energy independence,which must be achieved by a shift away from fossil fuels to localized renewables,as well as the need to increase energy efficiencies and lower energy demand.Despite the
16、se challenges,there is a strong business case for retrofitting buildings to be future-fit.Rising energy costs willhasten the move towards efficient buildings1 https:/www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/10/05/further-delaying-climate-policies-will-hurt-economic-growth2 WGBCRetrofitting Buildings to be
17、 Future-Fit|4 The risk of inaction on decarbonization will lead to financial risk sooner than many investors realize.The 2022 GRESB results the global ESG benchmark for real estate related financial products show that the average CRREM(Carbon Risk Real Estate Monitor)stranding year of GRESB-submitte
18、d buildings is 2025.3 As demand for NZC buildings continues to increase,the current supply-demand imbalance will provide a value uplift opportunity for those who act,and a potential brown discount for those who dont.Tenant demand riskValue does not only come in the form of Return on Investment(ROI)a
19、s an asset manager or investor it is also about tenant attraction and retention.Currently,60%of Fortune 500 companies have some climate or energy target already in place.With increasing corporate commitments around net zero,tenants are being more selective when deciding what space to occupy.In JLLs
20、2022 Future of Work Survey4,the vast majority of organizations(74%)said they would be willing to pay a premium for leasing a building with leading sustainability or green credentials,and 22%said they already have.By incorporating a decarbonization approach into the overall global corporate strategy
21、and putting a carbon transition plan in place,investors can continue to attract the most coveted and best quality tenants to maintain or improve net operating income(NOI).It is short-sighted to solely focus on ROI,and instead the opportunity cost of losing the lease or having an unlettable asset in
22、the future should be considered as part of the decarbonization strategy.While economic headwinds,escalating costs and labor shortages are making it harder to unlock retrofitting opportunities over the short term,progressive owners are doubling down on net zero carbon(NZC)interventions in the knowled
23、ge that liquidity,pricing and debt are increasingly influenced by a buildings emissions performance.Rising energy costs will hasten the move towards efficient buildings and reinforce emerging value trends,with the financial risks of inaction already becoming apparent.Acute shortages of NZC buildings
24、 will benefit early adopters of retrofitting by boosting rent,reducing financial risk,improving access to capital at favorable rates,and making it easier to attract and retain tenants.1Decarbonizing existing assets is critical to avoiding the brown discount3 Source:GRESB,2022.Based on a sample size
25、of 117,000 assets4 Based on survey of 1,095 decision makers and corporate occupiers across 13 global marketsRetrofitting Buildings to be Future-Fit|5 Value upliftIt is a question of when,not if,sustainability will be reflected in the value proposition.In Australia,a deep retrofit of an office buildi
26、ng from the early 2000s resulted not only in an improved NABERS rating,but higher rents,lower utility bills(due to installation of on-site renewables),and an improved internal rate of return(IRR).The building now also benefits from the incorporation of new technology to monitor energy and water usag
27、e.In a Central London office,a NZC audit modelled a 70%reduction in EUI(energy use intensity)and annual carbon savings of close to 200 tonnes CO2.This would lead to a 225 basis point increase in total return over a 10-year hold period,despite the higher capital expenditure involved in carrying out t
28、he refurbishment.This stronger return is attributable to expectations of reduced letting voids,higher rental growth rates and a premium on the exit yield,amongst other factors.Acute shortages of NZC buildings will benefit early adoptersRegulatory riskWe can expect climate risk assessments to become
29、part of all property valuations in the near future.Leading investors are already including net zero carbon in their mandatory due diligence as part of the asset acquisition process.In Europe,the EU Taxonomy and SFDR(Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation)have imposed mandatory ESG disclosure obli
30、gations to bring clarity and transparency to the market on all investment activities that involve European capital sources.At the same time,many jurisdictions are beginning to implement taxes on carbon emissions or already have them in place,such as Canada,Singapore and New York City.As carbon prici
31、ng becomes more commonplace,it will become another cost line on companies utility bills and incorporated in energy prices,further making the business case for low and zero carbon buildings.Energy cost savings are directly translating into property value,and this is only being exacerbated by the curr
32、ent energy crisis.On average,the cost to decarbonize is 10%-20%of AUM at a portfolio level,but ranges widely at an asset level,partly because investments also have upside and distilling green additional costs is hard to do.Importantly,the availability of debt financing at attractive rates will be li
33、nked to robust transition plans that account for upcoming changes to the local regulatory environment.Retrofitting Buildings to be Future-Fit|6 5 According to Net Zero Tracker,countries committed to 1.5C target,net zero and zero carbon6 Australia,Belgium,Canada,China,Germany,France,India,Italy,Japan
34、,Netherlands,Poland,Singapore,South Korea,Spain,Sweden,UK,U.S7 Berlin,Boston,Chicago,London,Los Angeles,Madrid,New York,Paris,San Francisco,StockholmGlobally,nearly 100 countries have committed to a net zero target by 2050.5 The scale of the retrofitting challenge is huge:The cost of retrofitting th
35、e office stock alone across 17 major countries is conservatively estimated by JLL to exceed US$3 trillion.6 Across 10 major cities in Europe and North America,90%of the office stock is over 10 years old,and even offices completed just over 5 years ago will likely not comply with future energy effici
36、ency standards.7 JLL has calculated that in mature cities about 80%of office buildings which exist today will still be in-use in 2050,meaning existing stock will have to be retrofitted at a rate of between 3.0%-3.5%per year if the net zero target is to be met.However,current retrofit rates in the Gl
37、obal North are only around 1.0%.Even in high growth emerging cities,where new construction could more than double the existing stock by 2050,retrofitting will still be a formidable undertaking.There are many reasons for the current inaction around retrofit rates.Some are waiting until there are clea
38、r regulations around net zero buildings before embarking on a costly deep retrofit.At present,energy consumption targets for buildings are based on the energy use intensity(EUI,measured in kilowatt hours per square meter,per year-kWh/m/year)performance of new builds.However,there are no EUI targets
39、for existing buildings as part of legislation(CRREM aims at giving one target EUI for an asset regardless of the buildings age),which is quite a challenge for investors and owner-occupiers trying to decarbonize their existing portfolios.Still,property owners may face increased costs if they continue
40、 to wait for regulation and may also be further limited by future shortages of materials.Further delay also poses significant risk to the future value of assets.There is an imperative to act now,and owners stand to benefit from being proactive.At current rates,decarbonization will not be achieved un
41、til the end of the century,which will be too late to align with the Paris Climate Agreement.In the Global North,retrofitting rates need to triple from barely 1%today to at least 3%of stock per year.An estimated US$3 trillion will be required to meet these targets.Addressing the knowledge gap,upskill
42、ing the workforce and scaling technology will be critical to accelerating the pace of retrofitting.2We must triple the pace of NZC retrofitting collaboration at all levels will be keyRetrofitting Buildings to be Future-Fit|7 There is also a large knowledge gap when it comes to undertaking a deep ret
43、rofit.Educating all stakeholders on the benefits of retrofitting existing stock from increased resilience linked with future-proofing the asset,to ROI and rental uplift,tenant retention and attraction,and reduced financial risk is key to accelerating the present retrofit rate.Globally,there is also
44、shortage of the technical expertise required to advise on and carry out these retrofits.There is an urgent need to upskill our labor force and encourage sustainability training for building engineers,architects,and consultants.These drivers of inaction are not hurdles that should deter the industry
45、from taking charge and retrofitting our buildings.In fact,we can take a lesson from the Covid pandemic in which we were faced with an unprecedented global health crisis.Investment,technology,and science came together,resources were made available,and countries collaborated on a global scale,the like
46、s of which we have not seen before.To successfully transition real estate to meet global targets,we need action at a similar scale.We have the technology to retrofit our buildings in line with the Paris Agreement,but we need the capital,talent,regulation,and collaboration to accelerate the pace of r
47、etrofitting before it is too late.74%of CRE leaders say they would pay a premium for leasing a green buildingSource:JLL Future of Work Survey,2022Retrofitting Buildings to be Future-Fit|8 Deep retrofits must be considered at the outset when creating a decarbonization roadmap.Every retrofit is a comp
48、lex process and should be thought-out with a long-term view that prioritizes deep retrofits early.A retrofitting strategy that incorporates embodied carbon,operational carbon,lifecycle assessments and consideration for the regional complexity of the energy grid,along with the context of change manag
49、ement is a highly effective way to decarbonize existing buildings.The carbon impact of a new build,depending on asset type,size,and location,can be up to 1,500 kg of CO2 per square meter.Emissions from retrofits,depending on their depth and extent,are typically below 500 kg of CO2 per square meter,p
50、otentially generating just one third of the CO2.This is why retrofitting becomes instrumental in the low carbon transition,but it is a complex concept.To simplify we refer to three types of interventions when we use the term retrofit:Deep retrofit on whole building:focus on significant works of size
51、 or scale that result in a fundamental change to the building structure and/or services.Examples include fabric/envelope improvements such as wall and roof insulation,glazing replacement,heating and cooling systems,LED fittings,ventilation,Building Management Systems(BMS)optimization,other energy ef
52、ficiency measures,distribution networks and architectural trades.Deep retrofit on MEP equipment:focus on significant works of size or scale that result in a fundamental change to the mechanical,electrical,and plumbing(MEP)equipment in the building.Examples include ventilation,heating and cooling sys
53、tems,LED fittings,BMS optimization,other energy efficiency measures,distribution networks and architectural trades.Light retrofit:focus on performance optimization and the basic remodeling,replacement,or adaptation of existing building elements which tend to concentrate on a single aspect or feature
54、.Examples include LED fittings,BMS optimization,other minor energy efficiency measures,distribution networks and architectural trades.The actions to decarbonize are clear maximizing operational efficiencies,the electrification of heat,incorporating on-site renewable energy and sourcing off-site loca
55、l renewable energy,with offsetting as a last resort.Retrofitting is complex,and owners need to take a holistic,long-term strategic view for it to be successful.3NZC interventions need to be strategically planned and pursued at scale Retrofitting Buildings to be Future-Fit|9 Through these various int
56、erventions,JLL has demonstrated considerable EUI reductions across all asset types,the most substantial being the results of a whole building deep retrofit,as illustrated in the table below.Net Zero Carbon InterventionsTypical Energy Efficiency Savings by Type of RetrofitIn regulated energy,based on
57、 European assets*MEP=Mechanical,Electrical and PlumbingSource:JLL,2022In decarbonizing an asset,there are similar levers that can be utilized:Understand the current EUI of the building Maximize operational efficiencies through low-cost and no-cost initiatives Improve energy efficiency through fabric
58、 improvements Electrification of heat Incorporate on-site renewable energy Source off-site renewable energy Offset the remainder as a last resort LightFocus on performanceoptimizationMEP*Deep retrofit onMEP equipmentWholeDeep retrofit on whole buildingOffice 10%-15%30%-40%40%-60%Logistics 10%-15%20%
59、-25%30%-35%Retrofitting Buildings to be Future-Fit|10 Owners should be wary of incremental,small energy conservation-based retrofits.For example,replacing a fossil-fuel burning boiler with a more efficient gas burning system still leaves the building tied to a CO2 producing heat source,and for many
60、years out.Incrementalism is not going to get us to net zero as small replacements could inhibit the potential to fully electrify the building within the desired time frame.Electrification of such systems does require large capital spending but strategizing retrofits with a long-term view can also al
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