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1、Cascadia RAAI Quarterly NewsletterMarket Trends&Capital Market Drivers|Q4 20222Cascadia RAAI Quarterly Newsletter:Q4 2022Updates from Cascadia Capital and the RAAI Team:Cascadia Capital Receives Growth Equity InvestmentFall 2022 has been a busy time for Cascadia Capital and the RAAI team.Between a h
2、eavy conference schedule,important market developments,and exciting news at the firm level,there has been little down time!Some updates include:Cascadia closed a strategic growth equity investment from Atlas Merchant Capital in November as the firm looks to accelerate its rapid growth as one of the
3、most active independent middle-market and emerging growth investment banks in the country.The firm opened a new office in Austin,Texas in October as Cascadia looks to expand its reach into new markets,especially high-growth,technology-focused places like Austin.Newsletter Features:Cascadia on the Ro
4、ad:Conference Stops this FallFirdaus PohowallaManaging DJason LippenbergerSenior Vice PIn this Newsletter you will find Cascadias insights on some of the most relevant topics within the broader robotics,automation and artificial intelligence sectors including:The fundraising market:founders and shar
5、eholders coming to grips with lower valuations as growth capital continues to be hard to secure,and venture investors become more selective.Technology updates:within certain verticals winners and losers begin to emerge;the recent news out of the self-driving sector serves as a noteworthy example.Cas
6、cadia on the Road:Conference RecapsCascadia Market InsightsMarquee Deals and FinancingsPublic Company PerformanceUpcoming Conference&Event ScheduleCascadia RAAI Team&Practice Overview3711202115Cascadia RAAI Contacts:Across the broader investment banking landscape,large Wall Street banks have become
7、less entrepreneurial,less versatile,and more like utilities.This shift underscores the critical need for what Cascadia brings to the market as an innovative and flexible independent firm.We are proud to align our firm with this talented team.-Bob DiamondFounding Partner and CEOAtlas Merchant Capital
8、Table of Contents3Cascadia on the Road:Conference RecapsOct 10th 13th,Boston,MAFor the 2ndconsecutive year,Cascadia Capital had the pleasure to serve as a Platinum Sponsor of the Autonomous Mobile Robots&Logistics Week in Boston,MA hosted by the Association for Advancing Automation(A3).Hundreds of f
9、ounders,investors,and customers gathered to discuss the latest trends in warehouse and supply chain automation with a specific emphasis on autonomous mobile robots.Co-located with the event was The Vision Show,North Americas leading machine vision&imaging showcase.Noteworthy keynote speakers from so
10、me of the most active participants in the robotics industry spoke at the event including leaders from Amazon,Zebra Technologies,DHL,Proctor&Gamble,Boston Dynamics,3M,KUKA,Locus Robotics,Vecna Robotics,and more.Cascadia Managing Director Firdaus Pohowalla(center)contributes his thoughts during the Tr
11、ends in Mobile Robots&Automation panel at AMRL 2022Fetch Robotics AMR collaborates with Plus One Robotics picking solution on the AMRL Exhibitor Floor.Key Topics at AMRL 2022:InteroperabilityHuman/Robot CollaborationAMR SafetyFleet ManagementBoston Dynamics famous AMR Spot demonstrates how its arm a
12、nd legs can operate independentlyPerception SystemsEnd-to-end SolutionsNotable Exhibitors and Attendees:4Cascadia on the Road:Conference Recaps(Contd)RoboBusiness 2022,hosted by WTWH Media,is one of the pioneering events of the robotics industry,offering insight into developments across the entire r
13、obotics ecosystem as well as ample industry networking opportunities.This years event marked the first RoboBusiness since 2019,offering a fantastic opportunity for founders,investors,and thought leaders to connect again in person.Co-located with the event was the Field Robotics Engineering Forum,an
14、event curated specially for robotics solutions operating in wide-ranging,outdoor,dynamic environments such agriculture,construction,and mining.Key Speakers included representatives from Robust.ai,Agility Robotics,Waymo,DHL,Dusty Robotics,FORT Robotics,Universal Robots,GrayMatter Robotics,InOrbit,Vec
15、na Robotics and more.Key Topics at RoboBusiness 2022:Autonomous VehiclesRobots in theSupply ChainInnovationsin SensorsSimulation&Digital TwinsCloud Safety ComplianceCobotsNotable Exhibitors&Attendees:Oct.19th 20th,Santa Clara,CACascadia Managing Director Firdaus Pohowalla(far right)discusses trends
16、during the Fundraising and Investment panel at RoboBusiness 2022Agility Robotics humanoid warehouse and delivery solution Digit showcases its bipedal capabilities on the RoboBusiness Exhibitor Floor5Cascadia on the Road:Conference Recaps(Contd)Sep.20th,New York,NYSelect Observations&Takeaways:1)Dron
17、es are increasingly solving real world problems and have seen substantial developments in package and food delivery.2)Lack of appropriate labor will continue to drive automation in warehouse and manufacturing settings.Even in a recessionary environment with rising unemployment,those looking for a ne
18、w job wont necessarily be interested in or have a skillset fit for many factory and supply chain roles.3)Lack of exit opportunities in the current climate,including a largely shut IPO market,will continue to weigh on growth stage investment.A lively Schottenhamel Festhalle at Oktoberfest rounded out
19、 day 3 of the conferenceSep.25th 27th,Munich,GermanyPanelists during the Optimizing the workforce panel at Drones&Robotics Summit 2022Select Observations&Takeaways:1)The greater Munich area is a clear epicenter of the German technology ecosystem.2)Palpable energy of over 5000 attendees and founders
20、after the prolonged Covid hiatus.3)Heavy focus on SaaS over hardware or mobile applications,perhaps a shift from earlier years,though several robotics companies in attendance.4)Festbier makes for a great conversation starter.Representative Attendee Companies:Enthusiastic Poster6Select Observations&T
21、akeaways:1)Supply Chain and logistics a major theme at the show,along with traditional packaging and automation equipment.2)AI based vision systems making inroads and showing increasing importance as it relates to materials handling,reducing deployment time and category switchover programing.3)Autom
22、ation as a hedge against labor shortages was a key theme,as well as industry sustainability and traceability.4)Robotics in general were front and center throughout the show and safety was a key.5)Inflation affecting consumer spending habits,shifting consumer to either low-cost packaging options or h
23、igher cost(better value)at the expense of medium sized options.Cascadia on the Road:Conference Recaps(Contd)Sep.23rd 26th,Chicago,ILNov.14th,Santa Cruz,CASelect Observations&Takeaways:1)RobOpscon,sponsored by the Robot Operations Group,had its inaugural year and brought together various thought lead
24、ers across the robotics industry.2)Interoperability including communications between difference robotic devices using set standards will be of increasing importance and will lower risk for end users.3)The Omniverse,Industrial Metaverse,or Multiverse(however one calls it)may be game changing and buil
25、d upon digital twin technologies in the factory or warehouse setting.4)Simple solutions with true ROI vs cool technology and ability to operate 24/7 in many situations drives value.5)As robots scale,fleet management solutions will increasingly take center stage.7New Milestones from InvestorsCascadia
26、 Market Insights:Q4 2022For more information on this report or Cascadia Capitals RAAI coverage,please contact us or visit Human-in-the-loop solutions(HIL)are continuing to see faster customer adoption and more deployable short-term opportunities.Interoperability and integrating point solutions into
27、end-to-end solutions will be a challenge in the industry as automation adoption continues to scale.There will be significant opportunity for continued emerging category leaders as some focus shifts away from level 4 autonomy on the road toward near term defined and discrete use cases.Human-in-the-Lo
28、op Solutions Garner Attention Heightened Focus on InteroperabilityStructured Autonomy Will See More DevelopmentFundraising Environment Continues to Pose ChallengesDemonstrable backlog and ARR are still key for many investors,but time to deliver has now become equally important.It has also become cle
29、ar that down rounds are likely to increase going forward.Consolidation has yet to pick up steam and the fundraising environment continues to give early-stage businesses significant challenges forcing founders to consider alternatives.The debate between financing options for automation solutions wage
30、s on but having flexibility and optionality will ultimately be key to attracting all potential customers.RaaS vs.CapEx Debate Persists8$4$6$8$10$12Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Cascadia Market Insights:Q4 2022(Contd)For more information on this report or Cascadia Capitals RAAI coverage,please contact us o
31、r visit Fundraising Environment Continues to Pose ChallengesQ3 2022 brought the third consecutive quarterly decline in completed deals with VC activity across all stages showing signs of slowness.$43B in total Q3 VC investment represents a nine-quarter low as investors are displaying heightened leve
32、ls of conservatism.There is no doubt we are in an investor-friendly market as macro-driven company valuation declines have mirrored the public markets,and founders and shareholder expectations are starting to come to reality.Anecdotal valuation contraction of up to 75%for some start-ups has been rep
33、orted.A significant growth capital drought and the recent SPAC implosion will continue to haunt growth investors,thus limiting Series C and beyond capital in some sectors.An uptick in consolidation may be around the corner as fundraising environment forces founders to consider alternatives.Source:Pi
34、tchbookSupply Chain Tech Fundraising16716722592Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q320182019202020212022Total Deal Count9821,0211,378546Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q320182019202020212022Total Deal CountAI&Machine Learning FundraisingLate-Stage Capital Sup
35、ply Hits Low201720182019202020212022Dollars of supply to dollars of demandNew Milestones from InvestorsPrevious fundraising markers have shifted due to market conditions and a general lack of FOMO by investors.Series B level companies often need$5+mm of ARR and Series C often need$10+mm to attract n
36、ew investor support.Time to deliver has also been added into the equation on top of ARR and backlog as an equally important hurdle for securing new capital.This factor is complicated by supply chain constraints,integration partners and in some cases manufacturing capacity.Down round and insider lead
37、 rounds likely to increase.While down rounds have yet to ramp(only 6%of deals in 2022YTD have been completed at a down round),analysts predict a significant uptick moving forward.The median late-stage valuation has more than doubled since 2018 up to$100M,meaning there is ample room to readjust to ma
38、rket realities.9Interoperability will be the biggest challenge as automation and robotics adoption continues to scale.Integrating point solutions into end-to-end systems will be key for companies to fully realize the advantages of automating elements of their operations.Hardware or software agnostic
39、 solutions that integrate with any WMS or fleet management system will continue to outperform as even the largest robotics customers in the world(3PLs most notably)utilize many management systems across their global operations.Interoperability lowers risk for end users,and overall will streamline op
40、erations.Cascadia Market Insights:Q4 2022(Contd)For more information on this report or Cascadia Capitals RAAI coverage,please contact us or visit RaaS vs CapEx Debate PersistsHuman-in-the-Loop Solutions Garner Attention Heightened Focus on InteroperabilityThe debate wages on between RaaS and CapExfi
41、nancing as hardware providers continue to gain commercial traction and reach a broader set of customers and use cases.Autonomous Mobile Robot providers in warehouses have discovered that a subscription model often creates a simple transition for customers as the monthly expense mimics the payroll an
42、d wages that otherwise would have gone toward human labor.Ease of redeployment lowers switching costs too for the provider.There is anecdotal evidence of companies seeing as much as 100%of new customers opting for the RaaS model in some circumstances,indicating an adoption swing may be underway.Fixe
43、d robotics solutions(e.g.,picking robots)may be more likely to continue with CapEx options given the heavier switching costs and the fact that manufacturers often prefer to purchase outright due to a lower cost of capital.Human-in-the-loop solutions continue to see faster customer adoption and more
44、deployable short-term opportunities as they can offer operational and safety benefits in comparison to unsupervised machines.Continuing to shift the conversation around robotic adoption is critical throughout the industry,moving workers away from the idea that“robots will take my job”toward“robots w
45、ill improve my job.”Safety is key in order to see continued growth in human/robot collaboration.The worker must be able to feel comfortable and fully trust their robotic counterpart.Mikell TaylorPrincipal Technical Program Manager Amazon Robotics“Fully automated is a theoretical maximum.We design fo
46、r seamless work sharing between people and automation.Automated workflows must also be human-friendly.”Interoperability Solutions Leading the Charge:10-100%-60%-20%20%Dec-21Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22S&P 500Self-Driving IndexCascadia Market Insights:Q4 2022(Con
47、td)Emerging category leaders focused on structured and defined use cases in places like the field,warehouse,mine and construction site will see significant opportunities as the market continue to broaden focus from level 4 autonomy on the road.Significant safety hurdles have continued to set back th
48、e self-driving vertical,pushing full commercialization further to the right and forcing certain investors to shift their attention elsewhere.The safety edge case will continue to be a question in Level 4 autonomy,even as systems like Waymo,Cruise and Tesla deploy at scale.Gaps in self-driving techno
49、logy development may indicate winners and losers within the vertical as some well-funded operations pull away from the pack and others seek exit or winddown.Structured Autonomy Will See More DevelopmentJim Farley,CEOFord Motor company“Were optimistic about a future for L4 ADAS,but profitable,fully a
50、utonomous vehicles at scale are a long way off and we wont necessarily have to create that technology ourselves.”1-Year Share Price PerformanceRecent News in Self-Driving VerticalArgo AI shuts down.In a notable announcement,the Ford and VW-backed autonomous driving software startup closed its doors,
51、with some employees being offered employment at the two automakers.Having raised over$2B to date,this development is a material setback to the industry and in the Pittsburgh market.TuSimple at risk of Nasdaq delisting.The autonomous semi-truck focused company is facing headwinds after ousting its co
52、-founder and CEO over a federal investigation into a possible transfer of technology to a Chinese startup.The co-founders subsequently used their majority vote to remove independent directors,putting them at delisting risk.Cruise massively expands robotaxi service.On a positive note,Cruises expansio
53、n of services to nearly all of San Francisco indicates significant safety and technology headway and could be a signal for growing differentiation.Expectations of further expansion to new cities have been voiced as well,showing Cruise may have the talent and overall formula others have struggled to
54、find.Dec-22Source:CapIQ,TechCrunchData as of 12/5/22-12.9%-80.9%11N/AFor more information on this report or Cascadia Capitals RAAI coverage,please contact us or visit AcquiredbyMarquee M&A DealsWhy Its Notable:The Lincoln Electric acquisition of Fori Automation indicates solid tailwinds in the syste
55、m integration space as well as overall automation adoption as Lincoln hopes to grow its automation division to$1B by 2025.Why Its Notable:The Walmart acquisition of Alert Innovation,a robotics company focused on e-Grocery micro-fulfilment solutions,shows that Fortune 500 players in the retail space
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